Monday Morning News & Notes
Global COVID deaths plunge. Seasonal viruses complicate things in the Nordics.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌏🦠
Globally, coronavirus cases increased slightly in the week ending November 13th, while pandemic fatalities continued to drop like a rock. The latest World Health Organization pandemic assessment says around the world infections increased by 2% in week 45, while COVID deaths plummeted by 30% week to week. However, 7,400 lives were still lost to the virus. The WHO also cautions that due to a lack of testing, global infection numbers are very likely underreported.
Among the six WHO regions, Europe saw the largest week-over week drop in coronavirus numbers as they fell by 21%. While the Western Pacific (+18%), South-East Asia (+15%), and the Americas (+12%) all saw infection numbers rise.
As for pandemic deaths, the African Region saw the steepest drop, with fatalities down by 86% week to week. COVID deaths also dropped in South-East Asia, tumbling down by 80%. Europe saw a 41% decline in lives lost.
Looking at it by country, with 503,766 infections in the week, Japan saw coronavirus cases continue to soar (+25%) while also seeing a concerning increase in deaths (+41%). South Korea also continues to struggle with its latest wave with over 350,000 new infections (+19%). The United States also continues to post huge numbers with 281,955 new infections (+6%) while deaths dropped as a percentage (-6%), which still saw 2,323 more American lives lost. In Europe, Germany had the highest number of new cases with 184,987, which is actually 25% fewer than the week before. France saw the most deaths in week 45, with 390 fatalities, a 10% decline.
🇪🇺
The COVID situation across Europe continued to improve in the week ending November 13th, according to the latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Although, the agency emphasizes that with rising numbers of BQ.1 variant infections, it is important to keep a close eye on the situation.
Just 10 countries in the European Union are testing and sequencing at levels high enough to provide reliable information on variant activity. Of those, BQ.1 was responsible for 23.3% of coronavirus cases. 70.3% of infections were the BA.5 variant or one of its sub-variants.
The ECDC also warns of another potential sign of trouble due to the low uptake of a 2nd booster dose across most European countries and target groups. 54.5% of the total European population has had two doses and a booster shot. That jumps to 84.5% for those 60 years old and older. Just 11% of the total European population has had a 2nd booster dose. Among vulnerable older people 60 years old and older, the vaccination rate for a 4th dose is just 28.6%.
Infections among vulnerable seniors in Europe dropped by 23% in week 45. Only one of the 23 European countries reporting data on high-risk or vulnerable populations saw an increase in coronavirus cases among seniors. Across all age groups infections fell by 21%, with the exception of one of the 30 countries reporting this data.
Hospitalizations across the European Union and the broader European Economic Area either declined or remained stable. Three of the 24 countries reporting COVID admissions reported rising numbers of hospital or intensive care admissions.
COVID deaths across the EU and EEA also continued to drop and now sit at just 7% of the pandemic peak.
The ECDC says over the next two weeks it anticipates infection numbers and hospitalizations to remain stable while pandemic deaths will continue to fall.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
🇩🇰
The Statens Serum Institute does not update COVID numbers on weekends. It will table three days worth of pandemic data later today.
-
Over the last seven days, the bulk of all new confirmed coronavirus infections were in the 20 to 64 year old age groups. However, we know from all the data to date the vast majority of those would be among people under the age of 50 thanks to the ongoing booster dose campaign.
COVID hospitalizations continue to be heavily concentrated among people 40 years old and older. In fact, 87% of all infection-related hospitalizations in the last seven days were people over the age of 40. Looking at just seniors, 65% of all pandemic related hospital admissions in the last week were people 65 years old and older.
-
As is the case elsewhere in the world, a rising wave of RS virus infections are complicating matters and may be straining Danish hospitals, especially pediatric units.
As you can see from the graph below, the RS virus unfolding to date (yellow line) has seen the 2nd highest number of infections ever. Only the very late RS virus wave that struck last spring had more cases so far.
Infants one years old and younger continue to be by far the hardest hit age group for RS virus infections.
🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇫🇮
A new study has examined excess mortality among the Nordic countries before and during the COVID pandemic. Excess mortality is the number of deaths in any given year above the annual average. It has been used to gauge a more accurate snapshot of pandemic deaths in a number of studies in order to try and determine the ‘true’ global COVID death toll.
The study authors found that Sweden had much higher excess deaths during 2020, the first year of the pandemic, than in 2021. It is the opposite story for Denmark, Finland, and Norway, where excess mortality was lower in 2020 but higher in 2021. The study determined seniors 80 years old and older in Sweden had much higher death rates in 2020. In 2021, in Denmark, the increase was seen among seniors in their 70s. Excess mortality was also much higher among men than women and there was no significant mortality fluctuation among young people and children.
The study authors suggest the differences between the Nordic countries may revolve around varied hybrid immunity coverage, differences in vaccination roll-out, and perhaps some other factors their study missed.
You can read the study in full HERE.
In 2020, Sweden enacted its controversial pandemic strategy, essentially allowing COVID to rip through the population more or less unimpeded. Vulnerable seniors, including those in care homes, were left virtually unprotected. So many seniors died in the first year of the pandemic in Sweden, the government and top health officials issued a public apology for failing to protect them adequately. 2020 would end with the King of Sweden taking the unusual step of calling out Sweden’s pandemic strategy in his holiday address as a failure coming at the cost of too many Swedish lives. The government then pulled an about-face and enacted, albeit very lightly, the restrictions the country’s chief epidemiologist and others had mocked their neighbours for implementing.
Sweden began 2021 with more than double the pandemic deaths of Denmark, Norway, and Finland combined. And with 20,896 COVID fatalities, it still has almost three times more deaths than either Denmark or Finland and more than four times that of Norway. And while the gap has narrowed significantly from what it once was, it continues to have more coronavirus deaths than all three of its Nordic neighbours combined.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency only updates its pandemic statistics once a week every Thursday afternoon.
🇳🇴
Norway is broadening eligibility for a 4th COVID vaccine dose. Everyone between the ages of 18 and 64 can now get a 2nd booster dose if they wish. Up until this point, Norway had been targeting its booster dose campaign at seniors 65 years old and older, pregnant women, and those in high-risk groups
Norwegian Institute of Public Health Department Director Are Stuwitz Berg:
“The fact that it is now opened up so that even more people can receive a 2nd booster dose does not mean that we believe that everyone in this target group should take a new dose, but now there is an opportunity for those who want it to have it.”
The NIPH continues to assess that the risk of severe coronavirus infection resulting in hospitalization among those 18 to 64 years old is low. It adds that protection from another booster dose among that age group is “limited” due to high overall vaccination uptake and hybrid immunity from having had an infection.
As well, the institute maintains that there is no need for healthcare workers to have another booster dose, but if they so choose they can now have one.
“The need for increased individual protection is low for most people and there is high coverage for the first three doses, but also healthcare personnel can decide for themselves whether they want a refresher dose or not.”
The individual Norwegian municipalities run the vaccination campaign and access for the new group of those eligible may vary depending on capacity.
-
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health is warning that even as another coronavirus wave arrives, an RS virus wave may also be beginning, and influenza cases are also on the rise.
It says RS virus infections and hospitalizations are both rising, albeit it slightly, especially for young children five years old and younger.
“This may indicate that we are seeing the start of the winter outbreak of RS virus among children.”
The agency says the RS virus positivity percentage was 3% in week 45.
As for influenza, hospitalizations have been creeping upward for three consecutive weeks. There were 34 flu-related admissions in week 45, up from 27 the week before. The NIPH says the positivity percentage for the seasonal flu is 2.5%.
“Although the level is very low, the increase is relatively early and growth towards an early peak cannot be ruled out. Approximately 95% of influenza virus A is detected, with possible signs of a growing proportion of subtype H1 after they have been fairly even until now.”
The agency says 51% of the target group of seniors 65 years old and older have had a flu shot. Among those 18 to 64 years old in high-risk groups, the vaccination rate is 23.6%. While just 4.2% of children have been vaccinated.
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health only updates its COVID statistics once a week, every Thursday.
-
An indicator of rising concern on the COVID front in Finland. The Finnish Institute for Health has restarted its weekly COVID wastewater surveillance updates. In the most recent results from wastewater testing on November 13th and 14th, the agency says virus activity across the country is at a high level.
Leading Expert Tarja Pitkänen:
“The results show that the virus circulates in different locations and is released from infected people into waste water in abundance. The results of wastewater coronavirus monitoring support other indicators of the epidemic.”
The institute says the BA.5 variant and its sub-variants are the most common coronavirus strains detected in wastewater testing. The Omicron variants BA.2, BA.4, and BA.2.75 have also been detected, but in small quantities.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada updates infection numbers and a few other pandemic statistics on Tuesdays. Hospitalizations and other COVID data are updated on Thursdays.
-
Beginning this week more than a million bottles of children’s fever and pain relief medication will begin arriving in Canada. With hospitals, especially pediatric units, swamped, the country has been plagued with a shortage of children’s cold and flu medication, especially chewable pain relief drugs. Empty shelves have been a growing problem from coast to coast.
Health Canada Chief Medical Adviser Dr. Supriya Sharma said that they are exploring all options to try and deal with the “very challenging” situation.
“While drug shortages continue to make headlines, we are working tirelessly behind the scenes to end the shortages. It'll take time, but things will get better as we start to see the results of increased production of Canadian acetaminophen and ibuprofen products supplemented by the flow of foreign products coming into the country.”
The first wave of medication will go to hospitals, pharmacies, and then various retailers before they should begin appearing on shelves by next week. Among the incoming supply of medication will be children’s liquid ibuprofen and acetaminophen.
Health Canada says that global supply chain woes have contributed to about 800 drugs being in short supply, and of those, 23 are at critically low levels.
🇨🇳
China continues to struggle to maintain its zero-COVID strategy as new much more infectious coronavirus variants emerge. With less effective vaccines and poor vaccination uptake, China’s strategy has created a massive Achilles heel. Late in the pandemic game, its poorly vaccinated population has very little immunity derived from having a coronavirus infection making it especially vulnerable to more potent variants.
Another district of Beijing is urging residents to stay home as a new wave of infections sweeps through. All shops, restaurants, gyms, and other businesses have also been closed in the suburb to prevent infection spread. China recorded its first COVID death since May over the weekend, or at least the first one, it is publicly revealing.
Elsewhere in China, its policy of severe lockdowns is beginning to cause pushback, with large protests breaking out in the city of Guangzhou, where hundreds of people demonstrated against harsh coronavirus restrictions.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
The Russia Ukraine war and subsequent energy crisis have helped drive inflation up across the world. In Denmark, the Blue Cross organization says rising prices at the grocery store are putting more Danish families under pressure. It says demand for its services for some Christmas help has risen by 12% this fall. In all, 9,700 families in Denmark have applied for some Christmas financial support.
Head of Communications Thomas Røddik Korneliussen says they have never seen so many applicants before.
“As it is right now, we are unfortunately far from being able to help all families, so we need to have a good final surge of contributions from both ordinary Danes and businesses. All the money goes straight to Christmas aid.”
This year the Blue Cross is offering families a 500 Danish kroner gift card to the grocery chain, Lidl. It is also offering a 200 kroner gift card to its own Blå Kors thrift stores.
🇸🇪
An energy rebate scheme proposed by the Swedish government and approved by the operator of the national power grid has cleared its last hurdle. The energy rebate plan has met with cautious approval from the Swedish Energy Markets Inspectorate, the country’s energy markets watchdog. The plan calls for people in southern Sweden to get rebates to counter rising energy bills.
In Sweden, electricity prices are higher in the southern part of the country and lower in the north. People in northern Sweden who aren’t paying high energy prices are not eligible for the compensation scheme. The compensation plan come with a price tag of 55 billion Swedish kroner, which is about $7 billion Canadian.
🇫🇷
The good news is falling power demand due to an unseasonably warm fall means energy use in December in France won’t be as tight as anticipated. The bad news is that shortfalls in nuclear power have increased the risk of energy shortages early in the new year, especially if temperatures really plunge, driving up energy demand. France’s grid operator, EDF, says that nearly half of its nuclear reactors are either under repair or undergoing maintenance. If energy shortfalls turn France from an energy exporter to an energy importer, it will add to the energy strain across Europe.
According to Bloomberg, while energy prices in France remain very high, energy price forecasts for December have decreased by 7.3% to €405 a megawatt-hour.
🇩🇪
Potentially troubling signs on the energy crisis front are emerging in Germany. An official at a major player in the German power grid, Ampiron, is warning that Germany may have to cut its energy imports over the winter in order to avoid electricity shortages.
Chief Technical Officer Hendrik Neumann spoke to the Financial Times, saying that pausing electricity exports would be a “last resort” if the energy crisis becomes more dire over the winter. Germany, which relied heavily on Russian gas, has been one of the hardest hit EU countries as Russia cut gas exports to try and bring Europe to its knees. France and Austria are the biggest importers of surplus German power.
Meanwhile, President of the German Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance Ralph Tiesler told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag over the weekend that people in Germany should brace for energy shortages.
“We have to assume that there will be big blackouts this winter. By this I mean a regional and temporary interruption in the power supply.”
Tiesler clarified what he was referring to were short-term outages and not large scale blackouts.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Brace for another wave of Ukrainian refugees this winter. That is the message from the Danish Red Cross as Russia targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure in a bid to freeze the country into subjugation over the winter. The attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure could mean millions of Ukrainians could be without electricity as temperatures fall. The Ukrainian government has already said 40% of the country’s energy supply has been destroyed by Russia.
Danish Red Cross Country Manager for Ukraine Jakob Harbo says his organization is preparing for another exodus out of Ukraine this winter.
“We expect that between a million and a half [Ukrainians] will flee internally over the winter. Last night it was minus four degrees in some places in Ukraine, and it gets colder during the winter. If you don't have the heat on for a few days or longer, you need to go to a place where you can get electricity and heat. Then you go west and find some cities that have a more stable power system. It can be with family or friends, but Ukrainians who don't know each other are also good at helping. We also have warming rooms that we are making available.”
In fact, the head of Ukraine’s largest private energy company is already urging people to leave the country to reduce the demand on the power grid.
DTEK Head Maxim Timchenko spoke to the BBC:
“If they can find an alternative place to live for another three or four months, it will be very useful for the system.”
He says Russian missile attacks against critical energy infrastructure have continued to undermine the power grid, with each attack making the system less and less reliable.
If the Red Cross estimate is even close to correct it could add even more strain on already stretched humanitarian efforts and on European energy demands.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇸🇪
Sabotage. Sweden’s Prosecutors Office and Security Police have released their conclusions after their investigation at the scene of the Nord Stream pipelines. Both agencies have confirmed it was “serious sabotage” that blew the pipelines apart in at least three different sections.
The Swedish Security Police (Säkerhetspolisen) says the investigation at the scene of the blasts in the Baltic resulted in “several seizures” being made and “foreign objects” were found. An analysis of those objects found residue from explosives. It says an “advanced analysis” is now underway to draw better conclusions in this “extensive and complex” investigation.
For its part the Swedish Prosecutors office (Åklagarmyndigheten) Chamber Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist, who is leading the Nord Stream pipelines investigation, says they have found “gross sabotage.”
“During the crime scene investigations that were carried out on site in the Baltic Sea, extensive seizures were made and the area has been carefully documented. Analyzes that have now been carried out show traces of explosives on several of the foreign objects that were found. The advanced analysis work continues to be able to draw safer conclusions about the incident.”
Ljungqvist says the investigation must be painstaking in order to show with doubt that someone is responsible and charges could be laid.
“The cooperation with authorities in Sweden and in other countries works excellently. For the continued work with the preliminary investigation and for the various ongoing collaborations, it is important that we can get our work done uninterrupted.”
Multiple explosions in September destroyed an estimated 50 meters of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. Authorities in Sweden and Denmark are both investigating.
🇳🇱/ 🇷🇺
Last week, two Russians and a Ukrainian were sentenced in absentia to life in prison for the 2014 shooting down of Malaysian airliner MH17, killing all 298 people onboard. The sentence was issued in a Dutch court, and in the aftermath of the decision, Russia accused the court of “neglecting to be impartial.” The accusations have drawn the ire of the Dutch government, who called the Russian ambassador to The Hague to answer for the comments.
Dutch foreign minister Wopke Hoekstra called Moscow's reaction "highly despicable" and far from reality, according to Netherlands newspaper AD.
“Russia itself violates international laws in every way. We cannot let this pass. We have to show that we respect the rule of law and have an independent judiciary.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Three Russian owned jets have been seized by Finnish authorities. News agency Yle is reporting that the three jets are suspected to have been used in violation of EU sanctions placed on certain Russian individuals. One of them is reportedly Russian-Finnish oligarch Gennady Timchenko, who is under sanctions from both the EU and the United States.
You can read the article (in English) in full HERE.
🇫🇮/ 🇵🇱
Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin met with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki on Sunday in Finland. The visit comes days after two missiles crossed the Ukrainian Polish border killing two people. The incident is still under investigation. But, Morawiecki said in the meeting that no matter where the missiles came from, the fault is Russia’s, as Ukraine is simply defending itself.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and Finland’s NATO membership application are among the issues the two leaders discussed. On that front, Morawiecki said its imperative that Finland and Sweden become full members of NATO, and the sooner the better.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland will charge ahead with its plans to build what it is calling a border fence along its land border with Russia. This follows a pilot project this past spring where a three kilometer-long barrier was built along a section of the southern border. However, the project is going to take a while. The government has allocated in the neighborhood of €139 million, which is expected to cover the cost of 70 kilometers of border barrier. Finland and Russia share a 1,300 kilometer-long border. The initial plan calls for up to 260 kilometers of fencing, which would cover between 10 and 20% of the total border.
Head of the International Affairs Unit of the Finnish Border Guard, Matti Pitkäniitty, was in Estonia last week to look at the border barriers being constructed along the Russian border there. He says a “fence” is not the appropriate way to describe what is needed.
🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺
Poland continues to play hardball with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. The country says it will deny visas to the Russian delegation seeking to attend the two day Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) meetings in Poland next month. The OSCE consists of 57 countries, including Russia and Ukraine, and it deals with inter- country conflict prevention, crisis management, and post-conflict resolution.
Poland and the three Baltic countries, all of whom have a long memory of Russian occupation and brutality, continue to provide the strongest repudiation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
🇬🇧/ 🇺🇦
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak paid a surprise visit to Ukraine over the weekend. During the trip, he announced a new aid package to bolster Ukrainian defenses. The package is worth roughly $80 million Canadian and includes 125 anti-aircraft guns and anti-drone technology to counter the influx of kamikaze drones supplied to Russia by Iran.