Monday Morning News & Notes
Global COVID deaths numbers unacceptable. Russia turns off the taps again.
🦠Pandemic🦠
WHO/🦠
Globally, over the last four weeks there have been another 62,892 COVID deaths and 26,722,228 new infection cases confirmed according to the World Health Organization. That equals a 15% increase in new cases and a 35% rise in coronavirus deaths over the reporting period.
WHO Technical COVID lead, and Infectious Disease Epidemiologist, Maria Kerkhove says the number of pandemic fatalities is absolutely unacceptable.
“Millions have died from COVID since the start of this pandemic and 15,000 are still dying each week. 15,000 mothers, daughters, fathers, sons, brothers, sisters, friends, people we love. I know we are tired, but when did this become acceptable?”
Kerkhove says the WHO expects the coronavirus to keep spreading as countries give up on public health measures and social restrictions. But, she says, pandemic related hospitalizations, deaths, and incidents of long-COVID can be minimized.
“Lives can be saved now with early testing, the right clinical care, and treatments, and vaccination administered by a trained, protected, and respected work force. Vaccination among those most at risk in all countries is not as high as it should be. Vaccine equity is not just a hashtag. Infections and risk of long-COVID can be reduced with simple measures. Vaccines are work incredibly well at preventing severe disease. Get vaccinated and get all the recommended doses when it’s your turn.”
She also continues to reiterate that vastly reduced COVID testing and sequencing is making it extremely difficult for the WHO to track pandemic developments and the evolution of the coronavirus and its variants.
🇪🇺🦠
Across the European Union COVID cases continued to decline for a fourth straight week, according to the latest weekly snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. At the individual country level, just four countries reported seeing rising infection numbers in the last week, and of those only Latvia and Lithuania saw rising coronavirus cases among seniors aged 65 years old and older.
The 14-day pandemic death rate per million population (14.1) dropped a little week to week. Three countries reported rising coronavirus deaths.
Of the 28 countries reporting hospital and ICU admissions and occupancy data, new admission numbers have also declined for a third consecutive week. But occupancy numbers remain stable. That said, six countries reported increasing hospitalizations over the last week.
The ECDC notes despite the dominance of the BA.4 and BA.5 variants, it has “not resulted in sustained increases in hospitalisation or ICU admissions.” The agency says hospital admissions and occupancy remain at less than 40% of the pandemic maximum. ICU admissions and occupancy are less than 25%.
Of the just nine European nations that are testing and sequencing in numbers high enough to derive any useful data from, the ECDC says, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants remain king in Europe, covering 98.3% of all positive sequenced test results. BA.2 came back in 1.4% of cases and the BA.2 variant with the L452X mutation was detected in just 151 infections (0.2%). The BA.2.75 variant that blew up in India causing concern continues to spin its wheels in Europe with just 16 infections.
On the vaccination front, 53.5% of the total population has had two doses and a booster. Among seniors over the age of 60, 83.7% had a one-booster dose. 5.9% of the total European population have had a second booster dose, but that figure rises to 13.7% among seniors 60 years old and older.
The ECDC is forecasting that over the next few weeks infection numbers, hospitalizations, and pandemic deaths will all decrease. That said, it adds, things will vary at among individual countries.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
🇩🇰
The results of a major Danish study on the effectiveness and safety of COVID vaccines will be released this week. The ENFORCE study has been conducted by the Danish Medicines Agency, the Statens Serum Institute, and researchers at Rigshospitalet and Aarhus University Hospital.
Since the vaccination effort began in Denmark, 6,918 people in across Denmark’s five regions have been taking part in the study. The participants had blood samples taken before and regularly after being vaccinated to better understand the immune response and impacts of evolving COVID variants.
Rigshospitalet Infectious Disease Professor Jens Lundgren:
“We would like to convey the knowledge generated by the study to everyone who is interested in vaccines and COVID. And then we would like to say thank you and celebrate the nearly 7,000 Danes who participate in the study and who regularly come and have blood samples taken so that we can all learn more about coronavirus and vaccines.”
Aarhus University Hospital Infectious Diseases Chief Physician Lars Østergaard says the study showed that vaccines offered strong protection against severe infections from both the Delta and Omicron variants.
“The ENFORCE study has started to show results that can be used both internationally and by the Danish authorities for planning the vaccination programme. Most recently, data from ENFORCE on the correlation between antibody levels and breakthrough infection has been published in an international scientific journal.”
The ENFORCE study also assessed the quality of antibodies produced by vaccines and how they fared in fighting COVID. It found Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, along with AstraZeneca, were very good at producing high quality antibodies.
The study results will be unveiled at a symposium this Wednesday (August 24) at Rigshospitalet. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke and head of the Danish National Health Board Søren Brostrøm, along with other health officials will also attend.
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The Statens Serum Institute doesn’t update COVID numbers over the weekends. It will table three days worth of pandemic statistics later today.
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In the last week, new COVID infections were again heavily concentrated in the 20 to 79 year old age groups. But, the most coronavirus cases by far were among those 40 to 64 years old.
There has also been a back-to school impact, with infections numbers increasing among all age groups among those 19 years old and younger. The biggest increase was among six to 11 year olds, where cases rose by 189 week to week.
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In Denmark, seniors 65 years old and older continues to bear the brunt of all COVID hospitalizations over the last seven days.
🇳🇴
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has begun to keep a closer eye on influenza rates again as we creep closer to the coming fall and winter and into another flu season. The agency says at the moment influenza rates are “stable and very low.” Influenza-related hospitalizations have been under five in the last four weeks. Across the Nordics the last flu season arrived extremely late and in Norway it peaked in the latter half of March.
Other than influenza, the NIPH says it is seeing rhinovirus and parainfluenza as the two most common respiratory infections at the moment. That said, all respiratory infection activity remains pretty low.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency updates its COVID statistics only once a week, every Thursday.
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While the end of summer vacation could trigger an increase in COVID infection activity, it is also providing a big boost for hospitals. In Sweden’s capital region hospital staff have begun returning from vacation and staffing levels are beginning to return to normal. In Region Stockholm alone, almost 200 more staffed care beds came online this last week and more are expected to open this coming week.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“Thanks to the healthcare staff, we have managed to get through this summer even dealing with an unexpected COVID wave. Now more care places are opening up and although there is still high occupancy in some hospitals and wards during certain periods, the situation looks significantly better now than in previous weeks. Next week, even more employees are expected back.”
Bratt says returning staff will allow the region to not only better meet day-to day demands but also begin tackling backlogged surgeries and procedures that have built up during the pandemic.
“Today it is reported that only one COVID needs intensive care. I hope that it will soon be down to zero patients. When that happens, it will be the first time since March 2020 that we won’t have a COVID patient in intensive care.”
Region Stockholm has about 2,422 available care beds at its emergency hospitals, 195 more full staffed care beds than it had the week before.
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Both Norway and Sweden have ended their respective COVID apps. Denmark stopped using its Smitte/Stop app earlier this year. The apps were designed to warn people about a possible exposure and report an infection to warn others that may have been close contacts.
In Sweden, the app had over 20 million daily reports in the two years it was in service. While the app has been decommissioned, researchers at Lund University who created the app say they have collected enough data to study various aspects of the pandemic including unusual side effects like long-COVID.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada has approved the first COVID vaccine to be used as a booster among children aged five to 11 years old. A pediatric dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has been deemed safe and effective for use on children.
Children who are at high-risk, who have underlying medical conditions, and other vulnerable groups should get a booster dose at least six months after having a second vaccine shot.
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam:
“This booster dose provides a great option to restore protection for this age group, especially for those who are at high risk of severe illness. I like to remind parents that severe medical conditions in this age group should be rare. So I think giving people the choice and providing parents and kids with information about the effectiveness of a vaccine and the importance of the booster can help them make this choice.”
That said, getting children five to 11 years old vaccinated has been an uphill battle in Canada. That age group has the lowest vaccination rate of any age group in the country, with about 42% having had both a first and second dose. That compares to 83% or higher for every other age group over the age of 12.
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COVID Hospitalizations across Canada edged upward again in the week ending August 15. The total number of hospital beds used by coronavirus patients increased by 29 to 4,934. Of those, pandemic-related general admissions rose by 55 to 4,696. The only category to buck the trend was intensive care admissions, which declined by 26 to 238. Lastly, there were 12 more severely infected people put on a ventilator, with totals rising to 115.
The Public Health Agency of Canada of Canada reported 24,161 new infections and the loss of another 251 lives in its latest update on Friday.
The seven day positivity percentage is 12.4%, which is the same as the week previous.
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So far the Canadian vaccination effort has given a 1st vaccine dose to 33,812,008 people (88.43% of the total population) while 31,445,242 people (82.24%)have a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,806,329 have a booster dose.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
As of August 18, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has confirmed 16,162 monkeypox infections in the European Union and the greater European Economic Area. Spain has the most with 5,792, followed by Germany (3,242), and France (2,749). Among the Nordics Denmark has the highest number of monkeypox cases with 163, Sweden has 141, Norway 74, and Finland has 22 monkeypox cases.
So far, there have been only two monkeypox-related deaths in Europe, both in Spain, according to the ECDC.
The agency says the vast majority of infections continue to be among gay and bisexual men between the ages of 18 to 50 years old. It says the chances of infection are very high among the gay and bisexual community who have multiple sex partners. The ECDC says conversely, it continues to assess the risk to the broader population as being very low.
🇩🇰
For the first time in Denmark, a woman has been confirmed to have been infected with the monkeypox virus according to the Danish Staten Serum Institute.
Director Henrik Ullum:
“With the development that has taken place in Denmark and internationally, it is not surprising that we see the first case of an infection in a woman. This does not change our assessment that the most vulnerable are men who have sex with men. This is still where we must focus our prevention efforts. But this particular case shows that monkeypox can affect all groups in society.”
According to the World Health Organization, about 1.1% (176 infections) of monkeypox in the global outbreak so far have been women.
The Danish Agency for Patient Safety, working to identify and get in touch with the women’s close contacts.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“We are now seeing the first case of monkeypox outside the known risk group in Denmark. This is an isolated case of infection in a woman, which the Agency for Patient Safety is tracing. It is the Statens Serum Institut's assessment that with the current number of cases, individual cases of infection can be expected to spread to other groups. Monkeypox is a disease we take very seriously and monitor closely. Therefore, we have expanded the target group for vaccination and purchased new supplies, so that everyone who is in a risk group can be offered a vaccine.”
The SSI says there are now 163 confirmed monkeypox infections in Denmark. And that 1,411 monkeypox vaccine doses have been used so far to inoculate 1,347 people.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇷🇺/ 🇪🇺
Russia continues to double down on the weaponizing of its energy exports to Europe as it tries to bend European Union to its will. Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom is once again citing pipeline maintenance as it announced late last week that it is again shutting off the flow of gas to Europe via its Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The pipeline has already been running at just 20%of capacity. The latest unscheduled pipeline shutdown will take place over three days at the end of month, according to Gazprom.
Like the previous shutdown for “maintenance” this will again fuel fears that Russia will delay turning the gas taps back on or perhaps even just keep them off entirely.
This latest disruption in the flow of gas to Europe deepens an energy crisis in Europe. The EU is working to top up energy reserves ahead of winter in the hopes of avoiding gas shortages and having to ration energy supplies.
🇩🇪
“We need to change in a hurry and in doing so we have to take bitter medicine.”
Germany’s Economy Minister Robert Habeck says the era of the failed German energy model relying on Russian oil and gas is over. But the rushed transition to new energy sources is going to see the country endure some brutal growing pains. One of those is a levy placed on homeowners and businesses to help utilities cover the costs of finding alternatives to Russian oil and gas.
“The alternative would have been the collapse of the German energy market, and with it large parts of the European energy market.”
The levy will come into force on October 1, and will remain in place until April 24. It is supposed to help Uniper, Germany’s largest importer of Russian oil and gas, and other importers cope with soaring energy prices. What is means for a family of four in Germany is an added €480, a 13% increase, in utility costs based on an average gas bill of €3,568. Industry and the business community will also have to pay up.
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A German ‘stress test’ of its energy system, conducted to assess how it would fare if Russia cut off all gas supplies, is due in a few weeks. But, Economy Minister Robert Habeck isn’t waiting to see what the results are before committing to not extending operations at three of the country’s remaining nuclear power plants. Habeck, speaking on Sunday, said keeping the nuclear plants open would be the “wrong decision” and wouldn’t amount to much in the way of saving on natural gas use.
The minister did keep the door open slightly to keeping a nuclear power plant in the German state of Bavaria operational pending the results of the energy stress test.
Habeck also said the public shouldn’t panic over the possibility of gas shortages during the winter ahead. He said if households and industry follow through on energy savings cutting usage by 15 to 20% as requested, then “we have a really good chance of getting through the winter.”
🇫🇮
Concerns are rising in Finland over increasing electricity bills as inflation drives up prices pretty much across the board. Finnish Finance Minister Annika Saarikko is supporting calls to reduce the value added tax (VAT) on the price of electricity to try and ease the fiscal hit.
Saarikko told Yle that electricity prices are the biggest price concern ahead of another winter season.
“A reduction in the VAT tax rate on electricity would be a justified change in that it could be put into effect quickly.”
However, she also emphasized that any tax reduction on electricity cannot be a license for energy companies to pad their bottom line.
🇬🇧
The energy crisis is blowing up heating bills across Europe but the situation is already a full blown crisis in the United Kingdom, but at least one expert is predicting things are going to get much worse. Independent energy consultant, Auxilione, says energy prices, which are already at record highs in the UK, could triple in the coming months.
The average annual cost for gas and electricity in is approximately £1,971 per year per household. Auxilione is forecasting the average annual cost to rise to £3,576 by October, then £4,799 in January, before possibly hitting £6,089 by January.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺/ 🇺🇦
Efforts to send weapons to Ukraine from some of the biggest countries in Europe may be running out of steam. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy runs a ‘Ukraine Support Tracker’ and in a recently released report it found that military pledges to Ukraine fell drastically in July. There were no new pledges of support from countries like France, Germany, and Italy. In fact, the institute found that throughout July there were no new bilateral military commitments to Ukraine from any of the six largest European countries. That is the first month since Russia invaded Ukraine that this has happened.
The countries that are by far the biggest Ukrainian supporters are the United Kingdom and the United States. In fact, the institute says the UK has made double the military commitments to Ukraine than Germany has.
Research Center Director Christoph Trebesch:
“In July, donor countries initiated almost no new aid, but they did deliver some of the already committed support, such as weapon systems. The EU Commission is pushing for larger and more regular aid packages to Ukraine. However, there is recurring delay in the implementation of these initiatives at the member country level. For a country in a war situation, however, both the size and the predictability of external aid are crucial.”
🇺🇸/ 🇺🇦
The United States government announced on Friday that it is sending another weapons package to Ukraine. This latest shipment is worth about $800 million US. It includes weapons, ammunition, 50 Humvee vehicles, more specialized drones, artillery, anti-tank weapons systems, and high precision artillery ammunition.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
At the end of the month, Foreign Affairs Ministers from across the European Union will meet to discuss the idea of banning tourist visas to Russians. It has been a hot topic in Europe, with Russian tourists using countries like Norway and Finland to cross into the EU and then springboard to other European holiday destinations.
While Finland has recently announced it will restrict tourism visas to Russians and the Baltic states, are enacting a near ban pressure has been building for a European level policy. But not everyone is onboard. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz isn’t supportive of the idea and now Portugal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Minister has come out as opposed to it.
“The basic goal of the sanctions regime should be to punish the Russian war machine and not the Russian people.”
🇩🇰 🇺🇸 🇪🇺
Danish Armed Forces are preparing to utilize what it calls “host nation support” when an American navy vessel carrying units from the 1st Armored Division's Combat Aviation Brigade arrives in the port of Esbjerg today. Host nation support describes the major logistics effort to get the ship docked, unloaded, and all the American personnel and military equipment, including 44 helicopters, sent on their way to various destinations around Europe. The division is relieving other American units contributing to NATO missions who will return back to the U.S.
From the Danish side, the logistical challenge will be handled by a major collaboration that includes the Danish Armed Forces, the Home Guard, area police, and Esbjerg’s port and airport authorities.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Denmark’s Justice Minister is urging Ukrainian refugees who may have witnessed war crimes to contact the police. In a release, the ministry says Ukrainians fleeing the war-torn country and arriving in Denmark may have witnessed or experienced horrific violence, murder, mistreatment, and other war crimes. The ministry says some may even have documented evidence in the form of pictures or video of war crimes.
Justice Minister Matthias Tesfaye:
“As a legal society, we must ensure that persons who have committed war crimes are prosecuted.”
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The number of Ukrainian refugees who have found employment in Denmark is increasing. Preliminary figures from the Danis Ministry of Employment show that 4,258 Ukrainian refugees, approximately 36%, have found work. That is an increase from the update in June where it was just one-fifth.
Minister Peter Hummelgaard credits the job fairs, job banks, and other initiatives aimed at Ukrainians who are fleeing the war and arriving in Denmark.
“When you compare it with other historical refugee flows in Denmark, where we have accepted many people in a short time, it must also be said that it is much faster and better to get Ukrainians into work.”
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Denmark has set aside 100 million Danish kroner (about $17.5 million Cdn) to help the people of the Ukrainian city of Mykolaiv weather the coming winter. Russian bombardments have heavily damaged many buildings and water in the city is undrinkable. This has left residents in dire straights as the weather begins to turn and winter draws nearer. The money from Denmark will go to provide heat, windows, and potable water for the city and its people.