Monday Morning News & Notes
NATO bulks up. Influenza cases are rising rapidly in Denmark
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says that the alliance could substantially increase its military forces along its eastern flank. This would mean a major increase in fighter jets and combat ships. Stoltenberg says such major increases will require significant funds. On that note, Stoltenberg acknowledged, a number of NATO nations have increased their contribution to the military alliance. Allies need to invest a minimum of 2% of GDP on defense..
“We must reset our collective defense and deterrence for the longer term; today we have tasked our military commanders to develop options across all domains.”
🇸🇪 🇫🇮/ NATO
The time is now, not later, for Sweden and Finland to join NATO. That is the opinion of former NATO Secretary General, and ex-Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen. He spoke to Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter.
“Right now all avenues [to join NATO] are open. Putin is busy elsewhere and can do nothing against Sweden and Finland. In the event of a later application, however, there is a risk that Russia will protest.”
The issue of joining NATO has become much discussed in Sweden and Finland and public opinion has swung heavily in favour after Russia’s invasion of, and atrocities in, Ukraine.
NATO's current Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance would move very swiftly to admit Finland and Sweden should they move to officially join.
“At NATO Headquarters, the matter would be resolved within 24 hours. From there, it will take a few months for all Member States to ratify the decision.”
However, Sweden's Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, is currently dismissing the idea of joining NATO, saying it would destabilize the Northern European security situation. The issue is threading to become an election issue in both Sweden and Finland, with opposition parties jumping in to push for, to varying degrees, joining NATO.
Russia has already sent threatening letters to both countries warning of military consequences if either nation moves to join NATO.
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇸 NATO
Norway’s Prime Minister confirmed on Saturday that four U.S. Marines were killed when an aircraft crashed during the NATO ‘Cold Response’ military training exercise.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
More medical supplies are en route from Denmark to Ukraine. The Danish National Health Board says this shipment contains 8,600 packs of penicillin that will go to a hospital center for pregnant women and newborns in Kyiv.
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Denmark has allocated another DKK 50-million (almost $9 million Cdn) for medical equipment and medicine for Ukraine and countries it neighbours to help treat sick and wounded Ukrainians.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“The war in Ukraine is devastating for large parts of the Ukrainian health care system. It is difficult to get supplies to hospitals and many hospital buildings have been destroyed. It has fatal consequences both for the injured, but also for all the patients who were previously hospitalized and who are now in an extremely vulnerable situation. We are therefore doing what we can to comply with the Ukrainians' wishes for support to the health service in the form of donations. We have already sent several trucks away with medicine, vaccines and medical equipment and we are now getting ready to ship more.”
🇱🇻/ 🇷🇺
The Baltic countries have thrown out a combined ten Russian diplomats.
Latvia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs announced on Friday that he had expelled three members of the Russia embassy from the country. He says they were booted from Latvia due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that “their activities were incompatible with their diplomatic status.”
Estonia also expelled three Russian diplomats, while Lithuania tossed out another four.
🇧🇬/ 🇷🇺
On Friday, Bulgaria also declared ten Russian diplomats ‘persona non grata’ in the country. The ten Russians had 72 hours to get out of the country. Bulgaria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says the ten diplomats were carrying out “activities incompatible with the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations.”
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
2,500 Ukrainian refugees who fled to Moldova will be relocated to Norway, according to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
“Moldova has asked Europe for help. Norway has responded by receiving as many [refugees] as Germany and France have. We have decided that we will pick up 2,500 refugees from Moldova.”
Støre says “intense” efforts are underway to welcome the refugees. He says with over three-million people fleeing war-torn Ukraine so far, it has triggered Europe’s biggest humanitarian crisis since World War II.
The 2,500 are in addition to what Norwegian immigration officials are estimating to be around 5,000 Ukrainian refugees who have already made their way to Norway. The country is also taking in 550 Ukrainians in need of serious treatment and medical care.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Influenza rates in Denmark, which have been almost dormant for two years, are now rising very quickly. The Statens Serum Institut says the number of seasonal flu infection cases is doubling from week to week. In the second week of March, it recorded 1,179 influenza cases. The SSI says it is seeing flu infections in every corner of Denmark.
The agency says the vast majority of influenza cases are from the A/H3N2 strain, which is a good news, bad news situation.
This season, therefore, changes have been seen in the H3N2 viruses that are in circulation, which may mean that the vaccine has a reduced effect.
The good news is that strain is included in flu shots that began to be administered last fall. The bad news is, according to the institute, that this influenza virus seems to have evolved a little, and it is arriving more than five months after the flu vaccination campaign began. That all adds up to reduced efficacy for this year’s flu shot.
Looking at the impacts so far by age group, the SSI says young children 2 to 6 years old who have been vaccinated have a protection level calculated at 77%. But the older the age group the less protection. Among those 7 to 44 years old efficacy is 43% and for those 45 years old and older the flu shot has virtually no effect.
Section Leader Ramon Trebbien:
“Despite the fact that vaccine effectiveness against influenza infection is not measurable in the age group 45 and above, the vaccine will probably still have some effect against serious illness if you become infected with influenza.”
The institute says children are at an advantage because they generally have a good ability to form antibodies after vaccination. They were also vaccinated with two doses of a live attenuated flu vaccine while everyone older received a single dose of an inactivated influenza vaccine.
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In Denmark, COVID hospitalizations (1,327) rose slightly on Sunday (+31) but thanks to declines on both Friday (-39) and Saturday (-118) ended the weekend with fewer admissions than was reported on Thursday of last week. The number of severe cases in an ICU (23) also fell (-4) and of those the number on a ventilator (10) was unchanged day to day. Infected admissions to a psychiatric ward (357) crept up (+1).
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Over the last seven days, COVID hospitalizations continued to trend downward for children and young people 19 years old and younger, while the 80 and older age group now has the highest number of overall coronavirus admissions.
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Over the weekend, Denmark added 18,552 COVID infections (underreported) while losing another 102 lives to the coronavirus since Friday.
There were 22,047 PCR tests taken on Saturday equaling a positivity percentage of 22.60%.
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On the vaccination front, with just 860 booster doses administered yesterday the numbers remain where they have been for a number of weeks now.
To date, 82.3% of the total population has one dose, 80.8% have two, and 61.4% have a booster dose.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency announced on Friday that it will no longer update COVID statistics four days a week and as of this week will move to a once-a-week pandemic snapshot. The weekly update will be tabled on Thursdays.
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Pandemic deaths in Sweden seem to be “falling sharply” according to the Swedish Public Health Agency. It says as of March 14, there were 300 fewer deaths than were reported in the two week period prior to February 28. Additionally, the agency says excess mortality rates so far this year, are within normal levels if a seasonal influenza season was “raging.” So far, this year Statistics Sweden has reported 2,100 fatalities per week, a little higher than the average of 2,000.
Population Statistician Tomas Johansson:
“The difference from a normal year is actually quite small and can be compared to any flu season.”
But, Johansson notes, there is a statistical fly in the ointment.
“In recent weeks, the number of reported deaths has fallen quite a lot. Admittedly, there is a lag in reporting, but the trend is so clear that we can assume that it is a real reduction.”
Sweden has been struggling with a lag in reporting pandemic deaths for many months now.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency has hoped that the Novavax COVID vaccine would help convince vaccine skeptics. It doesn’t look like that hope is playing out on the ground. Novavax is a protein-based vaccine like the more traditional vaccines we have been used to in the past. The agency had been targeting doses of the vaccine at holdouts who they thought were suspicious of the new mRNA vaccines. Swedish Radio Ekot has been reaching out to the different Swedish regions to see if that is what is happening, and it turns out the new vaccine isn’t making much difference.
Gävleborg Region Vaccine Coordinator Tina Mansson Söderlund says as it turns out, the type of vaccine is not particularly important to those who are skeptical.
“The people who are unvaccinated probably want to continue to be unvaccinated.”
The Swedish Public Health Agency still sees Novavax as a good option to mRNA vaccines including for those who might have allergic reactions to Pfizer or Moderna.
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The COVID hospitalization picture continues to improve in Sweden’s capital region. There were 255 COVID patients in hospitals in Region Stockholm as of Friday last week, 67 fewer patients than there were a week ago. Of those, 14 are in intensive care. The region says it is seeing numbers decrease from the peak of more than 600 coronavirus admissions recorded in early February.
Chief Physician Johan Bratt:
“We have a better situation at our hospitals in the region due to fewer COVID patients. But that should not stop us from continuing to vaccinate. Vaccinations protect us now and in the future if there are new infection waves.”
The region saw another 39 coronavirus deaths last week. It continues to caution that there are backlogs in reporting COVID fatalities.
🇳🇴
In Norway, COVID hospitalizations (490) are unchanged since Friday as are the number of severe cases in an ICU (47) and of those the number on a ventilator (20).
Norge added 5,691 infections (underreported) while seeing no new pandemic deaths over the weekend.
To date, 80.3% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 74.6% have two, and 53.8% have a booster dose.
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Influenza cases are marching upward in Norway, as the Norwegian Institute of Public Health notes, a “marked increase” in people coming down with the seasonal flu. The NIPH says influenza prevalence among those tested is “still very low” but adds it has also increased from 0.9% to 2.2% in one week. It says influenza accounts for about 1% of respiratory illness-related hospitalizations.
The agency says the coronavirus is still responsible for the vast majority of respiratory infection related hospital admissions. In week 9, there were 1,525 admissions involving respiratory infections, of those COVID accounted for 69%. This was followed by lower respiratory infections (24%) and upper respiratory infections (6%).
🇩🇪
In a contentious vote, the German parliament approved the lifting of nationwide COVID restrictions despite increasing case numbers and the country’s COVID incidence rate per 100,000 reaching a record-high 1,706. 364 members of the German Bundestag voted for, while 277 were opposed.
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, a trained epidemiologist, called the result a “heavy compromise.”
“We can't continue to shield the whole country to protect a small group of those who are unwilling to be vaccinated and those who are not willing to go along with the measures in place to protect them.”
That means the end of restrictions like the national mask mandate. However, the different German states have the power to levy their own restrictions and some have already begun to do so.
🇦🇹
Slightly less than three weeks after lifting a national mask mandate Austria is reimposing the requirement to wear FFP2 masks indoors. In a Friday press conference, Health Minister Johannes Rauch said he didn’t like announcing this about face, but he had little choice as infections have headed upward for the last two weeks. Rauch also conceded that Austria had lifted the mask requirement too early. The mask mandate will officially be reimposed as of Wednesday.
🇪🇺🦠
After a brief respite, Europe is seeing COVID numbers start to rise again. The latest pandemic assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control found a 4.6% increase in the 14 day COVID case notification rate and a 9.1% surge in cases among seniors 65 years old and older. After a couple weeks of declines, the COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people increased in Europe, again going from 1,496 one week to 1,565 the next. This is despite big reductions in testing numbers, meaning the ‘true’ number if cases is likely much higher.
The ECDC says 14 EU countries are reporting increasing infection numbers, with 13 of them also reporting increasing infections among seniors 65 and older. Of those, six countries saw record-high infection rates among the elderly population.
The European health agency says increasing infection numbers, especially among the elderly, are resulting in surging hospitalizations in six EU nations. Of those, two countries reported their highest ever levels of COVID hospital occupancy. The ECDC says of the 28 countries reporting COVID hospitalization and intensive care data, nine registered increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The increased infection activity also meant more pandemic deaths, with five countries seeing increasing fatalities and of those, three saw their highest mortality levels to date. Overall, the 14-day pandemic death rate per million population in Europe has dropped for a third straight week going from 41.8 to 32.1 from one week to the next.
Looking at the individual countries Iceland, Ireland, and the Netherlands are rated by the ECDC as being of very high COVID concern. 18 countries including Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, France Norway, and Portugal are assessed as being of high concern. Eight countries Belgium, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Poland, Spain, and Sweden, are categorized as a moderate concern.
The centre is forecasting that infection numbers will continue to increase over the next two weeks while hospitalizations and pandemic fatalities across the EU will remain stable.
On the variant front, Omicron continues to be king in Europe, with 99.7% of all sequenced positive test results from February 21 to March 6 coming back as the virus strain. The once-concerning Delta variant accounted for a mere 0.1% of all cases.
As of the end of last week, cumulative vaccination uptake in the EU was 72.2% of the total population with two doses and 52.1% who had two shots and a booster.
WHO/🦠🌏
In the latest COVID update from the World Health Organization, it said in the last week there was an 8% increase in coronavirus cases with more than 11-million global infections reported. This is despite a significant reduction in testing occurring worldwide, meaning the ‘real’ number is likely much higher.
WHO COVID lead, and infectious disease epidemiologist, Maria Van Kerkhove says this is being driven by the much more contagious Omicron variant, and specifically by the even more contagious yet sub-strain BA.2.
“99.9% of sequenced positive tests in the last 30 days have been Omicron. Among those, 75% were BA.2 and 25% BA.1. All of these are variants of concern. However, our ability to track Omicron is compromised because testing is reduced. You can't sequence those who you do not test!”
Kerkhove says the good news is the WHO is not seeing any increased severity from BA.2 compared to the original Omicron strain. But, she adds, it continues to be a numbers game, and with this hyper-infectious variant massive infection numbers are resulting in more hospitalizations and pandemic deaths. Kerkhove says it is the partially vaccinated and unvaccinated population bearing the brunt of hospitalizations and fatalities.
She also called out countries who are rushing to return to near-normal.
“In the context of public health and social measures. The lifting of the use of masks, lifting of physical distancing, lifting of restrictions limiting people’s movement, this will provide the virus with the opportunity to spread.”
Kerkhove also warned that with massive virus spread and reduced testing and sequencing it becomes much harder to watch for the threat of COVID variant recombinants.
🇹🇭
Thailand is trying to breathe some life into its lagging tourism sector. As of April 1, the country will no longer require travelers to have a pre-boarding negative COVID test. It will, however, continue to test travelers on arrival. Tourism accounts for an estimated 20% of Thailand’s economy. The country’s tourism industry is anticipating about five-million tourism visits this year, a far cry from the 40-million who vacationed in the country in 2019.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada says after weeks of declining infection activity, average daily COVID case numbers have begun leveling off. The agency warns that with COVID restrictions being lifted or eased across the country “increased levels of transmission are not unexpected.” In the 7 day period from March 9 to 15, the positivity percentage was 13.5% “indicating still widespread [COVID] activity across the country.”
That said, PHAC said the number of severe infections continues to drop with hospitalizations last week coming in 11% lower than the week before. In intensive care numbers fell by 14% week to week.
The agency says the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 is increasing across Canada but “at a slow rate.”
“The growth rate of BA.2 internationally appears to be highest where there is a combination of low booster coverage and where BA.1 has not already driven high infection rates. While evidence suggests BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1, BA.2 does not appear to be associated with more severe illness in vaccinated populations. However, it is still capable of causing severe disease among people without prior immunity, which underscores the importance of getting up-to-date with COVID-19 vaccines including a booster if you are eligible.”
The health agency says over 81% of the total population is fully vaccinated. Of those, 57% of those 5 to 11 year olds have one dose and 88% of those 12 years old and older have one dose and 84% are fully vaccinated. It adds that over 5.2 million people in Canada who are eligible to be vaccinated still need one or more doses to get fully vaccinated.
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Last week, Health Canada authorized the use of the Moderna vaccine for children 6 to 11 years old.