Monday Morning News & Notes
Global COVID numbers drop. But they are rising in Europe again.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌍 🦠
Global COVID numbers continue to plummet, as does pandemic surveillance, according to the latest weekly assessment from the World Health Organization. In the last 28-day period ending February 26, there were over 4.8 million new infections (-76%), and more than 39,000 lives were lost to the virus (-66%).
“Current trends in reported COVID cases are underestimates of the true number of global infections and reinfections. This is partly due to the reductions in testing and delays in reporting in many countries.“
Of the six WHO regions, just one, the Eastern Mediterranean, saw the number of pandemic deaths increase, by +18%. COVID fatalities declined in the other five regions, led by the Western Pacific (-84%), with Africa (-66%) just behind, then South-East Asia (-57%), Europe (-44%), and the Americas (-22%).
Zooming down to the individual country level, the pandemic remains dire in the United States as it led all nations in new infections, with 1,085,170 (-29%), and in coronavirus deaths, with another 12,111 lives lost (-17%). Japan also continues to be a COVID hot spot with 752,935 new virus cases (-77%) and 4,818 deaths (-52%). China, and its very unreliable reporting, saw 537,561 new infections (-95%) and 5,915 lives lost (-91%). Germany was one of the few countries to see coronavirus cases increase (+6%).
In the latest 28-day reporting period, the WHO says a mere 60,559 sequenced positive PCR tests were submitted to the global virus genome database, GISAID. Of those, recombinant variants were dominant, covering 41.5%. That is a big increase from the 18.7% of just four weeks ago. Among them, the XXB.1.5 variant was responsible for most infections (32.6%).
The global health agency continues to closely monitor the BF.7, BQ.1, BA.2.75, XBB, and XBF variants of concern.
“These variants are being monitored due to their observed transmission advantage relative to other circulating variants and additional amino acid changes that are known or suspected to confer a fitness advantage.”
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“All hypotheses on the origins of the virus remain on the table.”
The theory that the COVID pandemic began due to a leak from a military laboratory near Wuhan, China, has taken off again after the United States Department of Energy said last week that it “likely” caused the pandemic. Amid the uproar and plethora of partisan firestorms, the World Health Organization is wading in.
WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus lamented this latest development, saying it is complicating investigations into the origin of the pandemic.
“The continued politicization of the origins research has turned what should be a purely scientific process into a geopolitical football, which only makes the task of identifying the origins more difficult. And that makes the world less safe. Understanding the origins of COVID remains a scientific imperative to inform measures to prevent future epidemics and pandemics, and a moral imperative for the sake of the millions of people and their families who have lost their lives to COVID.”
Tedros urged any country or anyone with information to share about the pandemic’s origins to share it with the international scientific community.
“Not so as to apportion blame, but to advance our understanding of how this pandemic started, so we can prevent, prepare for and respond to future epidemics and pandemics.”
He also sought to reassure people that contrary to some reports, the WHO has not given up its work to identify the origin of the pandemic.
“I wish to be very clear that WHO’s work to identify the origins of the COVID pandemic continues, contrary to recent media reports and comments by politicians. In 2021, WHO established the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens. In its report last year, SAGO identified key studies that must be done in China and elsewhere to verify or eliminate the various hypotheses for the origins of the COVID pandemic.”
Dr. Tedros says he continues to be in touch with Chinese officials and high-level leaders, even as recently as just a few weeks ago, urging them to share data transparently
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The World Health Organization’s 194 member nations have begun negotiations on a global accord for pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. Talks on a draft agreement will continue over the next year with the goal of getting a final accord signed, sealed, and delivered by 2024.
Intergovernmental Negotiating Body Bureau Co-Chair, Precious Matsoso of South Africa, said this is about seeing what went wrong in the COVID pandemic and making sure it doesn’t happen again.
“The efforts this week by countries from around the world was a critical step in ensuring we do not repeat the mistakes of the COVID pandemic response, including in sharing life-saving vaccines, provision of information, and development of local capacities. That we have been able to move forward so decisively is testimony to the global consensus that exists on the need to work together and to strengthen WHO’s and the international community’s ability to protect the world from pandemic threats.”
In parallel with the pandemic accord negotiations, WHO member state governments are also discussing more than 300 amendments to the International Health Regulations to make the world safer from communicable diseases and ensure greater equity in the global response to public health emergencies.
🇪🇺🦠
After boasting the lowest coronavirus indicators in the last 12 months, COVID numbers are increasing again in the European Union. In the latest pandemic snapshot, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says a large number of countries across the EU and the greater European Economic Area reported increases last week.
The ECDC says infection activity among vulnerable seniors over 65 was seen in 15 of the 26 countries reporting age-related virus data. These include Belgium, Austria, Greece, Germany, and Iceland. In nine countries, infections among seniors have been rising for three or four straight weeks.
Overall, infections are increasing among seniors across Europe. While hospitalizations and deaths have decreased, intensive care numbers have risen a little. But zoom down to the individual country level a bit of a different picture emerges. The agency says COVID hospitalizations were up in seven of the 21 countries reporting hospital numbers, including Austria, Belgium, Greece, Germany, and the Netherlands. Intensive care admissions rose in six countries, including Austria, Germany, and Greece. While pandemic deaths increased in four countries, including Belgium and the Czech Republic.
“The values of these indicators remain below those observed in December 2022 however, increases of up to 50% have been observed in some countries.”
Last week, Europe added 8,793 more lives lost to its pandemic death toll.
Uptake for a 2nd COVID vaccine booster dose, and the protection it offers, remains lackluster across Europe. Just 17.2% of people 18 and older have a 4th dose. Among vulnerable seniors over 60, a mere 14.1% have had a 2nd booster dose.
Europe is increasingly blind to pandemic developments as testing numbers drop like a rock. This includes having an accurate handle on virus variants. Just ten European countries are testing and sequencing positive results in numbers high enough to derive any useful data from. Of those, XBB.1.5 is holding a slight edge coming back in 33.8% of infections. BQ.1 cases have fallen to 26.8%, while BA.2.75 accounted for 22.2%.
The ECDC has removed the BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 strains from its variants of concern list because “these parental lineages are no longer circulating.”
The current list:
Variant of Concern
BQ.1 (BA.5 descendent)
BA.2.75 (BA.2 descendent)
XBB (BA.2.10.1 / BA.2.75 descendent)
XBB.1.5 (BA.2.10.1 / BA.2.75 descendent) new VOI
Variant under monitoring
BF.7 (BA.5 descendent)
BA.2.3.20 (BA.2 descendent)
CH.1.1 (BA.2.75 descendent)
BN.1 (BA.2.75 descendent)
XBC (Delta (21I) / BA.2 recombinant)
XAY (Delta (AY.45) / BA.2 recombinant)
🇩🇰
A lot of personal protective equipment bought by Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) over the last few years of the COVID pandemic will have to be destroyed. About ten thousand pallets worth of smocks, visors, gloves, hand sanitizer, and masks, 89 million pieces in all, has been declared too old and must be tossed out.
Peter Westermann, who sits on the Regional Council, spoke to TV2 Kosmopol:
“It is unbearable that so many good items may have to go up in smoke. When we were in the pandemic, it was all about buying in abundance, and that has been done to an all too great extent.”
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More of the Danish regions are making it official; all COVID testing sites will close by the end of March as the Danish National Health Board mothballs its once world-leading testing program. During the height of the pandemic, around 800,000 COVID tests were being done daily in Denmark.
Region Sjælland will close its five remaining COVID testing centers on March 31, as will Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen). But in Region Midtjylland, testing sites will lock their doors on April 1.
After that, PCR tests will only be available when deemed necessary by a Doctor or when a person is being admitted to a hospital.
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Last week, Denmark ended its COVID and influenza vaccination efforts, at least for now. Nationwide, 3.7 million vaccinations have been carried out since the start of the vaccination effort. Region Sjælland says since flu shots and a 2nd coronavirus vaccine booster dose began being administered in September, it has vaccinated 226,741 people. This is in addition to the 70,000 inoculations done by family doctors and at regional pharmacies. In Region Hovedstaden, it says over 500,000 COVID booster doses were administered.
Metro Copenhagen Emergency Preparedness Director Jonas Egebart:
“We have succeeded in a high level of uptake because there have been good vaccination opportunities in our centers, by family doctors, and in pharmacies in the region. We have continuously adapted our vaccination efforts, and with the end of the seasonal vaccination program, there are only a very few citizens who may still need vaccination. The Capital Region is now, together with the health authorities, addressing how vaccination should take place in the long term.”
In Region Hovedstaden, as of April 1, COVID vaccinations will only be available in ten specific pharmacies. You can find them HERE.
In Region Midtjylland, people still needing a 1st or 2nd COVID vaccination will have to go to either Aarhus University Hospital or Regionshospitalet Gødstrup, but opening hours will be limited.
Regional Council Chair Anders Kühnau:
“We are going to limit the opening hours as much as possible, as it is such a small group of citizens who have yet to be vaccinated. So, the opening hours will, of course, depend on how many will make the decision.”
As of April 1, COVID vaccinations will be limited to anyone who has not been vaccinated, pregnant women, and immunocompromised people.
Danish health authorities have already said another COVID booster dose, and flu shot campaign will be held this fall. The different agencies are working on the details.
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The numbers are a little lower week over week, but the infection trend has remained more or less the same in Denmark over the last seven days. That is, from what we can tell with the blinders on due to low testing numbers.
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In the last seven days, 69% of all infection-related hospitalizations have been seniors over 65. That number rises to 88% if you include the 40 to 64-year-old age group.
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A study has found that reminders sent by email helped increase influenza vaccination uptake among seniors in Denmark. The study took advantage of Denmark’s national secure email system used by most of the population, called E-boks, to see if an email highlighting the cardiovascular benefits of getting an influenza vaccination would encourage more people to go get the jab. There were just under a million participants, all seniors over 65.
Compared with the usual communication efforts to get people vaccinated, the group receiving emails highlighting the advantages of getting a flu shot had a higher vaccination rate. Breaking it down further, seniors who had not previously had a flu shot were more likely to get one with the informative email reminder. Although the study authors note that the overall increase in vaccination was “modest.”
The study concludes that a fairly easy and inexpensive email reminders might be a tool to benefit future vaccination efforts.
The study was published in The Lancet.
🇫🇮
Finns are traveling again, and the number of trips to warmer European climates last fall approached pre-pandemic numbers. According to Statistics Finland, there were around two-million trips taken from Finland to Southern Europe from September to December. That is a 60% increase from the year previous when pandemic restrictions were hindering international travel. But, the number of trips to places like Italy and Spain was still about 20% lower than before the pandemic.
The trips to sunny Southern Europe seem to have come at the expense of staycations in Finland, which exploded in popularity due to COVID travel restrictions. Trips within Finland involving at least one overnight stay dropped by 13% over the same period. However, domestic business travel has bounced back, with the number of trips within Finland doubling year over year. International business travel has not grown as robustly, and while numbers increased, they were still about 40% lower than before the pandemic.
🇪🇺🦠
Crash-related deaths on roads across Europe have increased as pandemic restrictions are lifted, and things return to something resembling normal. In the first two years of the pandemic crash-related deaths in the EU plummeted by 17% as fewer people drove, travel all but vanished, and people worked from home en mass.
In 2022, the European Commission says there were 20,600 lives lost on EU roadways, a 3% year-over-year increase. But that is still 2,000 fewer deaths compared to 2019 before the coronavirus arrived.
At the country level, Lithuania and Poland saw more than 30% decreases in car crash fatalities. In Denmark, they were down by 23%. While in Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden, the numbers either remained more or less the same or increased.
Statistically, Sweden (21 deaths per million people) and Denmark (26) boast the safest roads in Europe. On the other hand, Romania (86) and Bulgaria (78) had the most deaths. The EU average per million people is 46.
The EU is working on cutting crash-related fatalities in half by 2030 and achieve zero deaths by 2050.
🇨🇦
Vulnerable and high-risk populations in Canada are being advised to get another COVID vaccine booster dose this spring. The National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) says this includes elderly people 80 and over, seniors in care, anyone immunocompromised, and those “with complex medical needs.”
NACI recommends a bivalent booster dose taken at least six months after your last vaccination.
🌎 🦠
Evidence is building that the COVID pandemic has had a significant impact on global life expectancy, with declines not seen since the 1950s. Life expectancy worldwide dropped in both 2020 and 2021, the first two years of the pandemic, which hasn’t happened since 1959. If it drops again in 2023 for the 3rd year in a row, it will be the first time such a thing has occurred in modern history.
In the first two years of the pandemic countries, like Peru, Guatemala, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Mexico, and in Europe, Russia, Bulgaria, and North Macedonia saw life expectancy drop the most, falling four years or more.
Just a few countries have seen life expectancy return to pre-pandemic levels, including France, Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden.
However, the picture is still statistically fuzzy. Plenty of things other than coronavirus can contribute to declines in life expectancy. With pandemic numbers far from being locked in with reporting and reliability issues across countries, it will take a few years after the pandemic ends for the dust to settle and the actual death toll to be more fully understood.
That said, the pandemic has clearly contributed to an almost unprecedented decline in global mortality.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇪🇺
EuroZone inflation eased ever so slightly to 8.5% last month, compared to 8.6% in January, soaring energy rates continue to decrease, from 18.9% in January to 13.7% in February. According to the European Union’s statistics agency, EuroStat, non-energy industrial goods rose slightly to 6.8% from 6.7% the previous month. Food, alcohol, and tobacco also increased month over month, from 14.1% to 15%.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
NATO/ 🇷🇺
Three huge NATO exercises will take place this week; all of them will be in the arctic circle and all have one key adversary in mind, Russia. Two of them, Joint Viking and Joint Warrior, will include some 20,000 troops from seven NATO member countries, and soldiers from Sweden and Finland.
With Finland waiting to join the military alliance, once it does, the border area with Russia among NATO member nations will more than double from the current 1,200 kilometers to 2,575 kilometers. This means that the arctic circle could be one potential key battleground should NATO and Russia ever go to war.
During the military exercises, NATO commanders will visit the Norwegian border with Russia on Thursday.
🇸🇪/ NATO
Even though Sweden is still facing some challenges to becoming a full member of NATO, interest is growing in the country about the changes to civil preparedness that come with joining the military alliance. The Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency says it sees a “sharp rise” in interest from Swedish municipalities and other authorities. In the event of a crisis, NATO member nations have certain expectations for ensuring adequate stores of food, water, and energy, and even plans for political leadership.
Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO last year, and despite lightning-fast ratification votes from 28 of the 30 NATO member nations, the last two, Hungary and Turkey, continue to drag their feet and play games. The two Nordic nations need a clean sweep, a yes, from all 30 NATO member countries.
🇫🇮 NATO/ 🇭🇺
There are reports that a delegation from Hungary’s ruling political party, Fidesz, will travel to Helsinki this week to meet with Finnish politicians, including the Speaker of the Parliament. The delegation is said to be led by former Minister of Defence Csaba Hende.
Hungary has taken a page out of Turkey’s playbook, repeatedly assuring Finland that it supports the Finnish NATO membership application, then suddenly throwing up roadblocks. Last week, Hungary again delayed the parliamentary ratification vote for Finland and Sweden’s NATO applications.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷 🇷🇺
Protesters set fire to a picture of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan outside the Turkish Embassy in Helsinki, Finland, last week. The incident triggered a police investigation. Then a few days later, a protestor also burned a picture of Russian President Vladimir Putin outside the Russian embassy. In this case, he broadcast it on social media and even tagged Helsinki police in the post.
The burning of an effigy of Erdogan and of the Muslim holy book, the Quran, in Stockholm, Sweden, a few weeks ago increased tensions between Sweden and Turkey. The two incidents fueled the fire over Turkey’s opposition to Sweden’s effort to join NATO.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Another sign of the drastically changed security situation in Europe due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the Danish island of Bornholm, members of the volunteer Bornholm Home Guard, conscripts from Almegårds Barracks, and even home guard soldiers from Sweden gathered to simulate a Russian invasion of the island. Two teams were selected with one taking the role of Russia and the other the volunteer defense forces of the island. The exercise took all weekend and even involved firing weapons loaded with blanks, and defending against more modern warfare tools, like drones.
Bornholm is the easternmost point of Denmark and sits in the strategically important Baltic Sea. Russian forces also occupied the island for about a year after the end of the Second World War. It was after the occupation ended that the Bornholm Home Guard was formed.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
Sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to drive a wedge between it and Europe. According to EuroStat, Russia’s share in extra-EU imports fell dramatically from 2021 to 2022, going from 9.5% to 4.3%. Exports also declined from 4% to 2%.
Specifically:
Coal (from 45% to 22%)
Natural gas (36% to 21%)
Fertilisers (29% to 22%)
Petroleum oil (28% to 21%)
Iron & steel (16% to 10%)
EU’s trade deficit with Russia was €18.2 billion in March 2022; it decreased to €6.0 billion in December 2022.
🇬🇧/ 🇺🇦
It looks like the United Kingdom will double the number of Challenger tanks it will donate to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystaiko, said in an interview with Radio Liberty that 28 Challenger tanks were headed to Ukraine, double the 14 initially promised.
🇺🇸/ 🇺🇦
The United States has tabled another military aid package for Ukraine. This batch of weapons, vehicles, and ammunition is valued at about $400 million USD. It includes more Bradley fighting vehicles, HIMARS rocket system ammunition, and more howitzers.
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There are reports that Ukrainian pilots are in the United States to be evaluated on the F-16 fighter jets. The idea would be to assess where Ukrainian pilot’s skill levels are, how fast they can adapt to an F-16, and how long it might take to train them.
It is unknown what this means for potentially transferring F-16s to Ukraine as U.S. President Joe Biden has adamantly ruled that out.