Monday Morning News & Notes
Europe energy crisis. COVID wave eases in EU. Monkeypox vaccine coming.
⚡️ Energy Crisis ⚡️
We have decided to add a section on the energy crisis in Europe. This is a critically important issue now and will only become more so the closer we get to winter.
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An electricity crisis in Norway is so concerning that Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre has called a meeting of all the leaders of the political parties. The meeting will take place today (Monday). The crisis might also lead to an emergency recall of the Norwegian parliament in order to try and deal with it.
As is being experienced elsewhere in Europe, climate change is crashing into the energy crisis and making a bad situation much worse. Due to drought conditions river levels feeding hydroelectric plants in Norway are so low that it is kneecapping power production. The impacted plants supply about 90% of Norway’s electricity. If water levels reach critical, Norway might soon be forced to cap electricity exports. This would further complicate the energy crisis throughout Northwest Europe, where countries are already struggling with their own energy woes.
Ironically, Europe is turning to Norway for oil and gas supplies as the EU rushes to severe all energy ties with Russia, and Russia chokes off gas supplies to Europe as it weaponizes its energy exports to try and blackmail Europe into submission.
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Germany is in the grips of an energy crisis on multiple fronts. Due to uncertainty over its natural gas supplies as Russia throttles pipeline capacity, power prices in Germany for the year ahead have jumped to record highs.
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As in Norway, Germany is also seeing river levels plunge to lows, in some cases, not seen in a decade or more. Water levels on the Rhine are so low the river could be days away from being closed to all commercial traffic. This isn’t just kneecapping hydroelectric production, but it is also going to impact coal-fired power plants in Germany that rely on fuel to be barged in using waterways.
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The city of Berlin is working to reduce its energy use by 10%. To get there is has stopped lighting up public monuments. As a result sites like Brandenburg Gate and the Victory Column are both dark at night.
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Due to the energy crisis, Spain has mandated that businesses cannot set air conditioning below 27 degrees or heat their facilities above 19 degrees in the coming winter. The mandate also calls for all lighting of monuments to stop. Storefront windows cannot be lit up past 10pm. Shops are also required to have a temperature gauge displaying the indoor temperature in a place where people walking by on the street can see it. Some of these edicts are not new but this is the most far-reaching power-saving measures tabled as of yet by the Spanish government.
Both Italy and France have also put mandatory caps on air conditioning, forbidding them from going below 27 degrees.
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In France, low river levels are also having an impact. The country uses river waters to cool nuclear power plants it uses for energy production. Electricite de France SA, which operates Europe’s largest number of nuclear power stations, is already warning it may have to cut back output due to low river levels reducing the amount of water used for cooling. In fact, it has already curbed production at its plant in Saint Alban due to low water levels on the Rhône. The company is warning five more plants could soon follow.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇪🇺🦠
The BA.5-driven infection wave seems to be easing across Europe as a whole, but that is not necessarily true for some of the individual EU countries. In its latest pandemic assessment, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says while the infection level remains high across Europe, the 14 day case COVID incidence rate per 100,000 people (842.5) has dropped by 22% week to week. The agency says infection activity among vulnerable seniors 65 years old and older, the most tested population, has also declined by 16% in the week ending July 31.
However, looking at the individual European countries, the ECDC notes ten nations are seeing increasing COVID activity and have been for four weeks or more. While it doesn’t say which countries it does say they are “mainly in the eastern region.”
Of the 26 EU countries reporting data on hospital and ICU admissions and occupancy 13 have reported increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The 14 day COVID death rate, 16.3 deaths per million population, has inched down, compared to the rate of 17.1 the previous week. That said, again, at the country level ten nations reported increasing numbers of pandemic deaths.
The ECDC says of the 11 countries testing and sequencing in numbers high enough to provide reliable data, the BA.4 and BA.5 variants accounted for 95.9% of all positive sequenced tests. The BA.2 variant with the L452X mutation came back in 1.1% of cases and the parent Omicron strain (BA.1) made up just 0.2% of case detections.
Across the EU, 52.9% of the total population have a third vaccine dose and 5.1% have a second booster dose.
The ECDC is forecasting that infection numbers and COVID hospitalizations will decrease over the next two weeks while pandemic deaths will remain stable.
“Forecasts for individual countries may differ from those for the EU/EEA as a whole. It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
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The Statens Serum Institute doesn’t update COVID numbers over the weekends. It will table three days worth of data later today.
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In the last week, infection activity in Denmark has been mostly concentrated amongst those 20 to 79 years old but especially in the 40 to 64 year old age group.
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On the other hand vulnerable seniors 65 years and older continue to bear the brunt of COVID hospitalizations over the last seven days.
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COVID lockdowns led to not only limiting coronavirus infection spread but also had ripple impacts resulting in falling numbers of a variety of infectious diseases. That is the conclusion of a new study by the Danish Statens Serum Institute. The study found that the strict lockdowns in 2020 also resulted in significant decreases in other respiratory infections, sexually transmitted diseases, and even food-borne illnesses.
Studies in the other Nordic countries also reached similar conclusions.
The SSI study focused on 16 different viruses and linked the lockdown to major reductions in airborne viruses like influenza, RS virus, various cold viruses, and even meningitis. It found that much reduced social contacts, social distancing, a heightened awareness of hygiene practices like hand-washing, and to some extent masks (Denmark adopted mask use much later than most countries) all contributed to virtually wiping out the ‘usual’ bugs and seasonal flu.
The lack of social contacts obviously also led to much lower numbers of a number of sexually transmitted diseases.
There were even drops in food-borne diseases like salmonella and campylobacter. The SSI links this to fewer social events like dinner parties, restaurants being closed, and people working from home away from work cafes and canteens, and a near halt to traveling.
“It is not possible to say whether one intervention works better than another. But even if such drastic interventions should only be undertaken during a pandemic, it is still reassuring to know that behavioral changes can reduce the burden of infectious diseases.”
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The Swedish Public Health Agency updates its COVID numbers once a week, every Thursday.
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The COVID hospital situation in Sweden’s capital region is “slightly improved” according to the latest assessment by the region’s chief medical officers. The heads of Region Stockholms hospitals meet once a week to assess the hospital situation. In its latest update the doctors note a week-to-week improvement and that all hospitals are in “normal mode” save one, Norrtälje Hospital.
Chief Physician Patrik Söderberg:
“There is still high occupancy at the county hospitals. The number of COVID patients in county hospitals has for some time now varied around a plateau of 260-270 patients. At the same time, I have some concerns about what happens when we continue to have a relatively large spread of infection at the same time as summer holidays end and soon more people will return to work and school.”
Söderberg is urging people to police themselves and if they are sick or have symptoms that could be COVID to stay home and isolate. If anyone isn’t fully vaccinated or needs a booster dose, they shouldn’t wait and go get their shots as soon as possible.
“You who have not started the vaccination, or have not taken the doses you were offered, make sure to book it in as soon as possible. Vaccination does not protect to any great extent against becoming infected, but provides very good protection against severe infections, hospitalization, and death. There are still approximately one in five residents in the county who have not yet started their vaccinations. It is not too late.”
Currently, Region Stockholm is treating 262 coronavirus patients and of those, eight are in intensive care. Hospitals in the region are seeing roughly 45 COVID infected people per day.
Last week the total number of available staffed care beds in Region Stockholm dropped by 31, to 2,200.
🇳🇴
Norway’s booster dose vaccination campaign is preparing to shift gears. At the moment, the priority is to get all vulnerable seniors 75 years old and older a fourth vaccine dose.
Assistant Director Geir Bukholm:
“It is particularly important that those over 75 and people in nursing homes take a fourth dose of the vaccine now. The aim must be to finish vaccinating this age group as quickly as practically possible.”
The NIPH has given the green light to municipalities that have finished vaccinating the oldest seniors to begin administering a 4th dose to the next age group, those 65 to 74 years old.
“We are unsure how the epidemic will develop now in the late summer and what an autumn and winter wave will be like. In addition, we know that vaccine protection in those who received the vaccine a long time ago gradually weakens. We are unsure whether the variant [specific]vaccines will provide significantly better protection than the vaccines we have available now. Overall, this means that we should not wait until October to vaccinate the 65-74 age group.”
As for getting a 4th dose to people 18 to 64 years old, the NIPH says it will table updated recommendations in the near future. But, at this point, the agency believes younger age groups are well protected with three vaccine doses. It notes hospitalizations involving people under the age of 64 continue to remain low “regardless of vaccination status.” It is also being cautious due to the increased risk of myocarditis after vaccination among younger people both after vaccination and as a side effect of having a coronavirus infection.
People at high risk and those who are immunocompromised can get a 4th vaccine dose in. Or way regardless of their age.
🦠New Variant Alert🦠
The U.S. Centre for Disease Control is tracking a new Omicron variant that it says is spreading quickly in the United States. The variant, a sub-strain of BA.4, has been designated as BA.4.6. It currently makes up about 4% of all positive sequenced tests in U.S. But in a handful of individual states the variant claims about 10% of all cases.
As with all new variants, we have more questions than answers with BA.4.6. The blanks will be filled in as more data is gathered. Also, we are now in a place in the pandemic where there are regional and national differences based on a number of factors. Chief among them is population-level immunity through vaccination and/or previous infection.
It is worth noting that the variant has already arrived in other countries including Denmark, where it was first confirmed on week 27. So far there are 24 confirmed infections making up 1.38% of all sequenced positive tests as of week 30.
🇨🇦
Hospitalizations largely continued to mount, albeit at a slightly slower pace, across Canada due to the BA.5 summer infection wave. In the week ending August 1, the total number of all hospitals beds used for COVID patients increased by 22, to 5,094. The number of pandemic related general admissions actually dropped slightly, falling by eight to 4,815. While the number of severe infection in an ICU rose by 30 to 279. Of those, the number of people on a ventilator crept upward by six to 101.
In its latest weekly update, the Public Health Agency of Canada reported another 28,596 confirmed infection cases (very underreported) while suffering another 208 pandemic deaths. The number of total to-date coronavirus fatalities in Canada is 42,901.
The seven day national positivity percentage is 13.6%.
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So far the Canadian vaccination effort has administered 33,812,008 1st vaccine doses (88.43% of the total population) while 31,445,242 people (82.4%) have two doses, and of those, 20,806,329 people have a booster dose.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seems to be hinting pretty strongly that there will be some kind of monkeypox vaccination strategy that will soon be announced. She took to her social media channels to say another legislative agenda is coming from her government.
“I know there are some who really fear monkeypox disease. And want the vaccine as soon as possible. I understand that. And I also see that other countries are vaccinating. I know that the relevant health authorities are following the situation closely and that they will make extended recommendations as soon as possible for those who will benefit from a vaccine. I look forward to telling you a lot more about our plans.”
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The Norwegian Ministry of Health has authorized the use of smallpox vaccine doses in the country’s emergency vaccine stockpiles for use in combating the monkeypox outbreak. The use of doses in the emergency stockpile are intended to bridge the gap between now and when monkeypox vaccine doses arrive. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health could begin administering doses to specified target groups from the emergency stockpile as early as today (Monday).
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The Norwegian Institute of Public Health has recommended that the country’s Health Ministry declare that the monkeypox is “an infectious disease dangerous to the public.”
Assistant Director Geir Bukholm:
“The main reason why we give this recommendation is that it will ensure patients with monkeypox important rights such as free consultation, testing, and treatment.”
In Norway, the designation triggers a number of measures within the country’s Infection Control Act that open avenues for patients, doctors, and the national infection control office.
“The outbreak can be handled without monkeypox receiving such a classification. But we believe that in that case certain other regulatory changes should be made to ensure good follow-up of patients and contacts and to ensure patients' important rights. Overall, we believe that it is now appropriate to define monkeypox as an infectious disease dangerous to the public.”
The institute says that as with any outbreak communication is key. In this case, the communication and outreach efforts must be done without stigmatizing the gay community.
“We believe that in this outbreak [largely but not entirely] among men who have sex with men, it is important to handle it prudently without excessive measures that could endanger the cooperation between the health authorities and the relevant communities. There has not been a tradition of restrictive measures when dealing with other sexually transmitted infectious diseases that are dangerous to the public.”
The health institute says about 1,400 doses of the monkeypox vaccine are expected to arrive in Norway this month.
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The Finnish Institute for Health says it has confirmed 22 monkeypox infections in the country, with most of those infections being “acquired abroad.” That said, the healthcare agency notes some monkeypox cases have been due to community transmission, so there is a good possibility the virus is circulating within the country. It says to date all of the infection cases are men.
Brazil, Spain, India and Peru have reported a total of five monkeypox-related deaths in men aged 22-45. The cases reported now are the first monkeypox-related deaths outside of Africa.
The agency stresses that the virus spreads through close intimate contact and for the “vast majority of infections” through sexual activity.
“Treatment for monkeypox is symptomatic, and the disease usually resolves on its own within a few weeks. Generally, severe symptoms occur in those whose defenses are weakened due to other illnesses or medical treatment.”
The institute strongly advises anyone who is infected or who suspects they are infected to avoid all physical contact and to especially stay away from pregnant women, children, and anyone who belongs to a high-risk or vulnerable population.
It says monkeypox vaccine doses are due to arrive in Finland this month. The agency does not say how many doses are expected.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 ☢️
The International Atomic Energy Agency is warning in the strongest terms possible that shelling at the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant could result in the “very real risk of a nuclear disaster.” The plant in Ukraine is Europe’s largest nuclear power station. The IAEA says if disaster strikes there it could trigger a calamity that would threaten public health in Ukraine “and beyond.”
Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi says he is receiving alarming reports of shelling and other violations of seven safety pillars needed to maintain nuclear safety and security at the site.
“Military action jeopardizing the safety and security of the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant is completely unacceptable and must be avoided at all costs. Any military firepower directed at or from the facility would amount to playing with fire, with potentially catastrophic consequences. I strongly and urgently appeal to all parties to exercise the utmost restraint in the vicinity of this important nuclear facility, with its six reactors. And I condemn any violent acts carried out at or near the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant or against its staff.”
Grossi says Ukrainian authorities report that there is no damage to the reactors themselves and no sign of radiation release. However, there is damage elsewhere on the site,
The UK Ministry of Defense posts daily intelligence updates on the war in Ukraine. It recently warned that Russian forces are using the nuclear plant to stage forces and put weapons banking on Ukraine, not shelling the area due to the nuclear risk. The IAEA says Russian occupiers have been compromising the ability of Ukrainian staff at the nuclear station from doing their jobs and maintaining safety.
“The Ukrainian staff operating the plant under Russian occupation must be able to carry out their important duties without threats or pressure undermining not only their own safety but also that of the facility itself. In this highly volatile and dangerous situation, it is more important than ever that the seven indispensable safety pillars that I outlined at the beginning of the war, and that I reiterated at the United Nations in New York last Monday, are fully respected in order to maintain nuclear safety and security. Ominously, however, almost all have been compromised at the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant over the past several months, and yet again, in the last 24 hours, several pillars have been violated. This must stop and stop now.”
Grossi says the IAEA continues to push for a team to go in to provide technical support to ensure safety and security at the nuclear plant. He says this would require support from Ukraine and Russia as well as the United Nations. So far, his efforts have come to no avail.
“This mission would play a crucial role in helping to stabilize the nuclear safety and security situation there, as we have at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant and elsewhere in Ukraine in recent months, where we have also delivered nuclear safety and security equipment that is urgently needed. At the same time, IAEA safeguards inspectors would conduct essential verification activities at the plant.”
🇸🇪 🇨🇦 🇬🇧/ 🇺🇦
Sweden has joined Canada, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom in a training program in the UK ,teaching an array of military skills to Ukrainian soldiers.
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace:
“I am delighted that Sweden has become the latest international partner to provide vital training for Ukrainian soldiers in the UK, alongside our Canadian and Dutch partners. Sweden’s Armed Forces will provide invaluable expertise equipping Ukrainian men and women with the skills and proficiency they will need, drawn from a wide spectrum of international support.“
Each intake of Ukrainian trainees will undergo five weeks of basic training in the UK covering a variety of battlefield skills to help in the fight against Russia. The goal is to train at least 10,000 Ukrainians.
🇱🇻 🇪🇪/ 🇷🇺
Latvia has joined Estonia in suspending economic cooperation agreements with Russia and ceasing to issue visas to Russian nationals. Latvia has also strongly supported that Russia be labeled a state sponsor of terror.
🇧🇬/ 🇷🇺
Bulgaria has indefinitely suspended the issuing of tourist and property visas to Russian citizens. It made the move after Russia announced the expulsion of 14 Bulgarian diplomats. Bulgaria had previously thrown 70 Russian diplomats out of the country, accusing them of espionage.