Monday Morning News & Notes
Omicron rising. Case numbers in Denmark rocket upward
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As of Sunday morning the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control had tabulated 182 confirmed Omicron variant infections across 17 EU countries. By Sunday night that number would have risen considerably higher as the ECDC had only accounted for 18 cases in Denmark and we already know those numbers have increased sharply. more on that a little further down.
Per the ECDC report:
“The majority of confirmed cases have a history of traveling to countries in Africa, with some having taken connecting flights at other locations between Africa and Europe. Several EU/EEA countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain) detected cases without an epidemiological link to areas where community transmission of the Omicron variant is documented or presumed. This indicates that undetected community transmission could be ongoing in these countries. Finland reported cases with travel history within the EU/EEA (Sweden).”
Europe’s health agency says all Omicron cases so far where “there is available information” have been either asymptomatic or had mild symptoms. No deaths specifically attributed to this variant have been recorded yet. But the ECDC cautions “these figures should be assessed with caution as the number of confirmed cases is too low to understand if the disease clinical spectrum of Omicron differs from that of previously detected variants.”
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In South Africa, while the reported number of coronavirus cases on Sunday, 11,125, were down from the days previous where they had pushed over the 16,000 mark, the Omicron threat continues. In Guateng province, for example, this graph shared by Cambridge University Senior Researcher Dr. Ridhwaan Suliman gives you an idea of just how fast the new variant is pushing numbers up compared to previous COVID waves.
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The World Health Organization is urging people to not panic over the Omicron variant. WHO Lead Researcher Soumya Swaminathan says at this point we need to learn a lot more about the variant.
“We must be prepared and careful not to panic because we are in a different situation than a year ago.”
Swaminathan says cases of the new variant in South Africa are doubling daily. In the space of just a few weeks since the alarm was raised over the Omicron variant, it has been confirmed on every continent in the world except Antarctica,
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Denmark’s Staten Serum Institut says it now has 183 confirmed Omicron variant Infections across the country as of Sunday afternoon. This is a steep increase on the 18 reported on Friday. The SSI says on Saturday alone 135 cases of the new variant were identified.
Director Henrik Ullum says Omicron is now spreading in the community independent of travel-related cases.
“We are seeing a worrying increase in the number of Omicron infections in Denmark. There are now ongoing infection chains, where the infection is seen among people who have not been traveling and don’t have any connections with travelers. We are working hard to slow down development with a faster laboratory detection of the virus variant, so that the Danish Agency for Patient Safety can start the detection of infection as soon as possible. The time we gain, we must use to get as many people vaccinated as possible. A high immunity gives our society more resilience if the Omicron infection increases further.”
The Omicron variant is now spreading across Denmark, with confirmed cases now in northern Jutland, according to the Director of the Danish Agency for Patient Safety, Anette Lykke Petri, who told Ritzau Sunday morning that they have confirmed cases in Aalborg and in Viborg where there was a large social event.
“Of the 150 participants, there are now two confirmed cases of the Omicron variant. In addition, 39 have tested positive, and they are also suspected of having the Omicron variant, but we are waiting for genome sequencing to come back.”
By Sunday afternoon the number of infected people confirmed to have an Omicron variant infection at a Christmas party in Viborg had grown to 53. TV2 is reporting that the julefrokost was held at Hersom Assembly House with high school students in attendance. The station says infections among some of those students led to the closure of Viborg Cathedral School on Friday.
Expect Omicron to outpace the Delta variant in Denmark. That is from Allan Randrup Thomsen, a professor of experimental virology at the University of Copenhagen, who says it is a matter of when, not if, that Omicron will be the new dominant virus strain.
Thomsen spoke to TV2:
“It seems to have spread more, and it seems to be easier to spread to people who have previously been infected. However, current data are still associated with a large number of uncertainties.”
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Denmark added 11,910 COVID infections and lost another 35 lives to the coronavirus over the last three days. On Friday, it reported 4,559 new infections, followed by 4,325 on Saturday, and then another 3,026 on Sunday.
There were 265,642 total corona tests done on Sunday, of which 121,604 were PCR tests equaling a positivity percentage of 2.49%.
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Danish hospitals are getting an injection of DKK 1-billion (just under $200 million dollars Canadian) as an emergency measure to get the system through the winter. A majority of Danish parties reached a deal on the winter package late Sunday.
Denmark’s hospitals have been struggling, dealing with staffing shortages, a pretty large backlog of delayed procedures, and the pressure of both rising numbers of COVID patients, and those from other respiratory infections.
For example, hospitals in Region Sjælland have had to delay 50 to 70% of planned procedures and outpatient care appointments. Both Region Hovedstaden and Region Nordjylland have postponed 25 to 50% of there scheduled procedures.
Finance Minister Nicolai Wammen:
“Our hospitals are right now in a completely extraordinary situation, where they will be under significant pressure over the winter, partly due to COVID. That is why I am glad that today we have agreed on a temporary corona winter package, where we will add DKK 1 billion to our hospitals, which they can spend on temporary initiatives that can get our hospital system the best possible help through what is expected to be a very difficult winter ahead.”
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COVID hospitalizations (447) continued to increase (+13) while the number of infected people in an ICU (58) was unchanged, and of those the number on a ventilator (36) inched upward (+1).
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On the vaccination front, another 6,172 people received their first vaccine dose over the weekend, pushing the total to-date percentage of Denmark’s population with at least one vaccination to 78.2%. The percentage of the total population with two doses in 76.1% and 16.3% have had a booster shot.
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On Friday, Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said the vaccination infrastructure would continue to ramp back up across Denmark. Heunicke said by mid-December overall vaccination capacity would reach 500,000 per week. He also urged people to get vaccinated, be it a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd dose, to increase protection against the Omicron variant. Heunicke says we have a window of opportunity to get vaccinated before the new variant becomes the dominant strain in Denmark.
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The Danish Health Ministry says 100,000 invitations were sent out for people to get a booster dose on Sunday and this week another 375,000 people will also be invited for a 3rd dose. The ministry says as of this Friday all children aged five to 11 years old will have also been invited to book a vaccination appointment.
Last week, a deal was reached allowing family doctors to administer vaccinations. This would allow families to get all their eligible children vaccinated by their family doctor at the same time instead of having to make multiple appointments and trips to the local vaccination center.
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Region Hovedstaden is urging people who can to go get their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd vaccine shot as vaccination in the capital region lags well behind capacity.
Regional Council Chairman Lars Gaardhøj:
“I am pleased that we have got the private sector and general practitioners on board working together with our own vaccination centers. We have the opportunity to administer 140,000 vaccinations next week and up to 170,000 as of mid-December. We have ample capacity, especially with our private partners, but unfortunately it is not being utilized enough. I would like to encourage all citizens who are not vaccinated, or who can have a 3rd dose, to show up at one of the vaccination centers in KB-hallen and in Fælledparken. Here you do not need to book an appointment as long as you have an invitation to get vaccinated in your e-Boks.”
Picture of KB Hallen on Saturday courtesy of Lars Gaardhøj/Twitter
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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen issued an apology over the weekend after being caught going into a store without a mask on. The incident was apparently caught on video leading to the apology.
“Yesterday I forgot to wear a mask when I was in a store in Copenhagen. It was simply an oversight after the new rules were introduced. I became aware of it because a citizen had filmed it. I know it can happen to any of us, but it shouldn’t happen to me. So of course I apologize and would like to thank everyone again for all that we all do to keep the infection down.”
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Sweden will table its first COVID update of the week on Tuesday.
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More than 5,000 women have reported menstrual disorders after being vaccinated in Sweden. The Swedish Medical Products Agency says it has recorded 5,687 reports to date. But the agency notes a definitive link as a side effect of vaccination has not yet been established.
Agency Senior Expert Ebba Hallberg says the bulk of the reports come from women in their 20s and 30s.
“It is the case that menstrual disorders are very common even in ordinary life; it is something that almost every woman has been through, and that makes the whole thing very difficult to evaluate. It is, of course, something we follow on an ongoing basis. But at present there is nothing to suggest that there should be a connection.”
However, Hallberg says it wouldn’t be terribly surprising if a link to vaccines were proven at some point in the future.
“Because menstruation is an immunological reaction, an inflammation of the uterine lining, it can very well be affected by the vaccine, which also works immunologically.”
Of the 5,687 reports of suspected menstrual side effects after being vaccinated, 241 were classified by the agency as being serious.
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Finland does not update its COVID numbers on weekends and it will table three days worth of coronavirus data later today.
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At least two Finnish government ministers, including Foreign Affairs Minister Pekka Haavisto, have tested positive for COVID after attending meetings in Sweden last week. A number of cabinet ministers also had a meeting with Haavisto on. Friday. The OSCE meeting in Sweden last week did not have a mask requirement. Finland has already confirmed its first Omicron variant infections after travelers returned from Sweden.
A number of Finnish government ministers and staff are now isolating, including Prime Minister Sanna Marin, pending COVID test results.
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Norway has added 8,337 infections and had no new deaths since its update on Friday.
COVID hospitalizations (262) while the number of infected people in an ICU (68) and of those the number on a ventilator (45) are all unchanged over the weekend.
So far, 78.8% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have had one vaccine dose, 71.4% have had two, and 13% have had a booster dose.
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In Norway, a Christmas party thrown in Oslo by a Norwegian renewable energy company called Scatec has become a major Omicron variant super spreader event. There were around 120 people who attended the party and more than half so far have tested positive for the new variant.
Frogner District Assistant Chief Physician Tine Ravlo spoke to Norway’s TV2.
“We can expect that more positive samples will come in gradually. So we must probably expect that this number will increase.”
The outbreak in Oslo is one of the largest outbreaks of the Omicron variant recorded so far outside South Africa.
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For a third week in a row, Belgium is tightening COVID restrictions as it tries to wrestle down a soaring infection curve. The new initiatives are aimed at children who are bearing the brunt of new infections. A mask mandate has been lowered from 10 years old to six. Belgium’s youngest children will also be sent home for Christmas break a week early.
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The latest weekly European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control assessment of the European pandemic situation is an almost carbon copy assessment of the last few weeks. Infection numbers are high and rapidly increasing; coronavirus deaths are slowly increasing, and hospital and ICU admissions are forecast to continue to climb.
COVID rates are highest among those under the age of 50, but numbers are also “rapidly increasing” among older age groups. The COVID incidence rate also continues to rise across Europe, going from 626.2 per 100,000 people to 742.1 from one week to the next.
The ECDC considers the overall epidemiological situation as either high or of very high concern across the European Union. It again notes that COVID infections are wreaking havoc among EU countries with the lowest vaccination rates.
Admissions rose in hospitals and ICUs across Europe in 20 of the 29 EU countries that report hospitalization data to the ECDC.
The agency considers seven countries in Europe as ‘very high risk.’ They are Belgium, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia. 15 EU nations are a ‘high concern’ including Denmark, Finland, Norway, France, and Portugal. The pandemic situation in eight countries including Sweden and Spain, is considered moderate.
Across the EU, 82% of the population have had at least one vaccine dose and 77.4% are fully vaccinated. Inoculation rates from country to country will vary widely.
On variants, the ECDC report is two weeks behind and so Delta was very much still king across Europe, accounting for 99.6% of all sequenced positive tests. It will be a report or two before we get a sense of how the Omicron variant stacks up.
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The number of confirmed Omicron variant cases in the United Kingdom has increased by more than 50% day to day. The number of cases involving the new variant went from 160 on Saturday to 245 on Sunday.
The UK is tightening travel restrictions due to the Omicron variant. As of Tuesday, anyone 12 year old and older traveling to the United Kingdom must have a negative COVID test no more than 48 hours old. This is in addition to current rules requiring travelers to isolate on arrival pending a negative COVID test result within 48 hours of arriving in the UK.
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The matter of ‘true’ global COVID deaths versus what is being reported has always been a matter of some debate. We know, looking at excess deaths, that countries, like Russia, for example, had an excess death rate much higher than what it had been reporting in COVID deaths. While Russia has reported just under 300,000 pandemic deaths, its excess death rate has now surpassed 800,000, a pretty good indicator things there are much worse than they are being publicly reported on.
Via Our World in Data
Now The Economist has built a model of COVID deaths corrected for underreporting, and it has reached the conclusion the ‘true’ global death toll is closer to 17.6 million. That is significantly higher than the 5.2 million being reported right now.
From the Economist, the death rate by country.
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The Canadian government’s COVID dashboard is not updated on weekends so we will have to wait until later today to get a better idea of the epidemic situation there. However, if the weekend numbers from the two largest provinces are any indicator, the pandemic situation there is not good.
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Of the provinces that report on weekends:
Ontario added 2,237 infections and seven deaths over the weekend as it has now reported over 1,000 new daily coronavirus cases for three consecutive days.
The numbers keep pushing upward in Quebec, with 2,768 combined new infections recorded on Saturday and Sunday and two more fatalities.
In Atlantic Canada, New Brunswick logged 195 new COVID cases and one more death over the weekend.
In Saskatchewan there were 138 new infections and no new deaths over the weekend.