Monday Morning News & Notes

Another Damaged Cable in the Baltic. Denmark vs Trump.

Breaking 🇱🇻🇸🇪

It has happened again. Early on Sunday morning, an undersea fibre optic cable running between Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland was damaged. The cable belongs to the Latvian State Radio and Television Centre (LVRTC), which says it believes the cable was seriously damaged and that at this point it is likely the cable was damaged “due to external factors.”

“LVRTC immediately conducted system checks and network measurements from equipment in Ventspils. Based on current findings, it is presumed that the cable is significantly damaged due to external factors. LVRTC has initiated criminal procedural actions. Given that the cable lies at a depth exceeding 50 meters, the exact nature of the damage can only be determined once cable repair work begins.”

It says repairs will begin as soon as arrangements can be made to dispatch a repair vessel.

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On Sunday night, Swedish authorities detained a suspect vessel in the cable damage case. The damaged cable is being investigated as sabotage with a number of authorities on the case.

Senior Prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist:

“We are now carrying out a number of concrete investigation measures, but what they consist of I cannot go into due to the ongoing preliminary investigation. A number of authorities, including the police's national operational department, the Coast Guard, and the Swedish Armed Forces, are involved in the investigation. I can state that the Swedish authorities are now working intensively and jointly to investigate this incident.”

It looks like the suspect vessel that has been seized and boarded by Swedish authorities is the Vezhen. The bulk carrier sails under a Maltese flag left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on January 24, and was headed into the Kattegat before being diverted into Swedish waters on Sunday afternoon. It is currently sitting off the coast near Karlskrona with a Swedish naval vessel alongside.

Initially, three ships were being looked as suspects, including one that was actually boarded and searched by the Latvian navy before being allowed to proceed.

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In response, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa convened a meeting of her cabinet and relevant authorities on Sunday.

“Early this [Sunday] morning, we received information that the data cable from Latvia to Sweden was damaged in the Baltic Sea, in the section that is located in the exclusive economic zone of Sweden. We are working together with our Swedish allies, and NATO on investigating the incident, including to patrol the area as well as inspecting the vessels that were in the area. Authorities have intensified information exchange and started criminal investigation.”

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Reaction to the news prompted responses from leaders in other Baltic nations.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson

“There is information suggesting that at least one data cable between Sweden and Latvia has been damaged in the Baltic Sea. The cable is owned by a Latvian entity. I have been in close contact with my Latvian counterpart, Prime Minister Evika Siliņa, during the day. Sweden, Latvia, and NATO are closely cooperating on the matter. Sweden will contribute relevant capabilities to the effort to investigate the suspected incident.”

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo also weighed in as authorities in Finland continue to investigate their own case of damaged undersea cables. The Estlink power cable and several nearby data cables were damaged on Christmas Day.

“A new undersea cable damage, this time between Sweden and Latvia, highlights the need to increase our ability to protect critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. We will continue to work with our allies and partners.”

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and former Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, said this latest case of damaged cables in the Baltic will be the topic of a meeting later today.

“Today’s damage to a subsea cable in the Baltic Sea is the latest incident affecting the critical infrastructure of EU Member States. Tomorrow [Monday], I will discuss with foreign ministers how to better deter and respond to hybrid threats amid Russia's intensified campaign.”

This is the fifth case of damaged and potentially sabotaged undersea infrastructure in the Baltic in the last two years and the third in as many months.

🍃Environment & Energy⚡️

🌎

The largest iceberg in the world is drifting in the sea off Antarctica and is steadily heading toward an island called South Georgia. At the moment it is less than 300 kilometres away. The island is home to huge numbers of birds and animals, including penguins, elephant seals, and various birds. If the iceberg collides with the island there is a risk it could upset the delicate balance of life on the island. The massive chunk of ice is roughly 3,500 square kilometres, roughly twice the size of London, with 30-meter-high cliffs. Sheets of ice are constantly crashing down into the sea around it. If the iceberg collides with the island and grounds itself, it could block access to feeding grounds for various species and endanger others as massive chunks of ice crash down around it.

🇩🇰

Danish scientists are harnessing the power of artificial intelligence to get a better idea of how climate change will impact ice melt at the poles and the subsequent rise in ocean waters that will threaten coastal areas. Currently, climate models are determined by supercomputers that are fed vast amounts of data. However, scientists from the Danish Meteorological Institute, Aarhus University, the Niels Bohr Institute, and DTU Space are busy building AI models that they hope will paint a much faster and more accurate picture of future climate change impacts.

DMI Climate Researcher Nicolaj Hansen:

“The models we use today to predict how much ice there will be in the future and how quickly it will disappear are slow, complex, and sometimes even disagree about the extent of the melt. That is why we are working on developing AI models that can create faster and more accurate calculations of how much ice and meltwater there will be in the future.”

The AI model will focus on what scientists call “surface mass imbalance” or the myriad of factors that include temperatures, snowfall, ice melt, and the overall rate of the ice melt in the Arctic and Greenland. That will provide faster and much more accurate calculations of ice melt rates and the rise in ocean levels.

“AI will be able to deliver immediate predictions that previously required weeks of calculations on supercomputers.”

The scientists are working on three different AI projects that they hope will develop the ability to calculate many potential scenarios over a short period of time. This gives the researchers a unique opportunity to analyze a wide range of possible future scenarios and get a more nuanced picture of the impact of climate change.

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Denmark’s Ministry of Environment is allocating 67.4 million Danish kroner (about $13.5 million Cdn) to help ensure clean drinking water across the country. The money is coming from the Drinking Water Fund and will be used to subsidize 15 different clean water projects around Denmark. Another four million kroner will be earmarked for closing unused wells and boreholes to safeguard against any pollutants or pesticides from seeping into the groundwater.

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Denmark’s culture minister is on a mission to have UNESCO include more Danish sites on its prestigious World Heritage Site list. Jakob Engel-Schmidt has applied to UNESCO, making the case that Hanklit on Mors and Knudeklint on Fur should be designated as World Heritage Sites. Engel-Schmidt says that he has plenty of more applications coming as he pledged that he won’t stop pestering UNESCO until committee members “can spell Denmark in their sleep.”

There are currently eight sites in Denmark on the World Heritage List, including the Roskilde Cathedral, Stevns Klint, the Jelling monuments, and the country’s Viking ring fortress sites.

🇸🇪

The Swedish Public Health Agency says it is seeing an increase in health complaints like fatigue, headaches, and sleep issues related to unhealthy environments in and outside the home. The agency says traffic noise and a lack of green space and poor air quality are chiefly to blame.

Almost a fifth of the Swedish population now say they suffer from recurring health issues involving fatigue, headaches, and sinus issues at least once a week either in their homes, schools, or workplaces.

Researcher Ida Knutsson:

“Sleep disturbances are one of the most serious effects of noise. They can contribute to cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and impaired cognitive development in children. We need to plan society with less traffic and more greenery, so we get good sound environments and, at the same time, healthier air.”

According to the latest findings lack of green spaces is playing a detrimental role in people’s health. There aren’t enough parks or nature areas, and even then access to them is pretty unequally distributed. According to the survey, women in Sweden spend more time in green areas than both men or children. The agency says there needs to be more green spaces, closer to residential areas, with easy access via public transport, car, or other transport service.

Every four years, the Swedish Public Health Agency conducts a comprehensive survey of how physical environments impact people’s health.

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Climate change is dealing hedgehogs a tough hand. On the Swedish island of Gotland, the Hedgehog Foundation says a record number of the little animals are needing help this winter. The problem is that global warming has made this winter not quite cold enough to hibernate like they usually would but cold enough that there isn’t much if any food for them to find. The foundation says it is working hard to save as many hedgehogs as they can.

🇫🇮

Local governments in Finland could be further incentivized to fight climate change if the federal government pulls a U-turn. A municipal funding organization, MuniFin, has teamed up with the Finnish Environment Institute to offer a plan for municipalities to get lower interest on loans in years where they reach their emissions reduction targets. Civic governments would need a climate action plan written during the current or previous local government term to qualify. However, as the bard writes, therein lies the rub. The current federal government pledged to abolish a rule requiring municipalities to write a climate action plan, saying the move would save some €2.8 million.

🇺🇸/ 🇪🇺

The global fight against climate change took another big hit as Donald Trump has again withdrawn the United States from the Paris climate agreement, which obliges signatory nations to contain global warming increases to 1.5°C.

EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra:

“It is a really unfortunate development that the world's largest economy and one of our closest allies in the fight against climate change is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.”

🇦🇺

Following up on the weird story of mysterious marble sized balls washing up on beaches near the. Australian city of Sydney. Tests show the balls contain saturated fatty acids, E. coli, fecal bacteria, and other things. The balls are being removed from the beaches, and authorities are urging people not to touch them should any more wash up. The investigation continues into what exactly they are and where they come from.

🇪🇺🇩🇰

In Europe, solar energy overtook coal for the first time ever last year. Solar power accounted for 11% of all electricity production in the EU; coal was 10%. Solar is now the fastest-growing energy source in the EU. Hydropower is also increasing. All told, solar, wind, and other renewable energies accounted for almost half of the EU’s electricity production in 2024.

In Denmark, wind and solar power accounted for 69% of all electricity production last year, which is well above the average of fellow EU nations of 28.5%.

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If Green Power Denmark has its way, the EU will go full speed ahead on an ambitious electrification plan in order to cut the cord on a reliance on oil and gas. The business organization says that Denmark is one of just three countries in the European Union that produces oil. Outside of that, the EU imports about 98% of the oil it uses, an expensive habit. Green Power Denmark believes that it is time to stop enriching the coffers of the countries that supply Europe with its oil and instead build out electricity production to such an extent that the EU can be energy self-sufficient.

Public Affairs and EU Department Head Ole Rydahl Svensson:

“We look forward to the European Commission presenting an action plan for electrification soon. Our proposal is that the share be increased from the current 23% to 35% of the final energy consumption by 2030. As long as we depend on using fossil fuels to heat homes and industries in Europe, we will be locked into having to send billions of euros out of Europe to pay for these expensive and polluting forms of energy. We can get out of this costly dependence by turbocharging the electrification of Europe.”

Green Power Denmark’s vision would see a Europe whose ships, vehicles, and industries run on green fuels and electricity. In order to achieve this vision, the EU will have to build out more renewable energy production, vastly increase Power-to-X facilities, and tackle the hard work of electrifying difficult industries. The group says that the EU Commission must table an action plan that sets clear goals for electrification that include not only a EU-wide action plan but also one for each member state.

“The path to making Europe more competitive, self-sufficient, and climate-neutral is clear. Firstly, we must build much more renewable energy; secondly, we must electrify as much as possible directly, and thirdly, we must electrify difficult sectors such as heavy industry, ships, and aircraft indirectly via Power-to-X.”

🇩🇰🇺🇦

Danish wind turbine giant Vestas has begun construction of a massive wind farm in war-torn Ukraine just 100 kilometres from the front lines. The wind farm will be made up of 64 giant wind turbines, making it Ukraine’s largest wind energy facility. After a year and a half of negotiations with Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, the ambitious project was finally unveiled, marking a big step toward restoring Ukraine’s energy independence. The project faced massive hurdles, not the least of which was its proximity to an active war zone. Once operational in about two years, it will produce enough electricity to power about 700,000 homes.

🇺🇸/ 🇩🇰

The Trump presidency is once again sideswiping Danish wind energy companies. As Trump doubles down on fossil fuel production, he is also trying to close the door on wind energy projects. The chill that has cast over the industry has reached across the Atlantic, where Danish wind energy giant Ørsted saw its shares take another pummelling. The company had to write down its accounts in the 4th quarter by some 12.1 billion kroner as its already bruised shares dropped by another 10.7%. The reason for the write-down was due to, among other things, interest rate increases and delays in American wind turbine projects caused by the Trump administration as it threatens to stop the development of all new wind turbine projects.

🇩🇰

Build it and they will come. The public charging infrastructure across Denmark continues to grow with lightning speed. According to Mobility Denmark, there are now over 30,000 charging stations across the country where EV owners can charge up their vehicles. That is a 69.5% increase in the national charging infrastructure year over year. In 2024, for the first time ever, more electric vehicles were sold than those running on gas or diesel.

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In Denmark, vehicles must undergo periodic mandatory safety inspections. Last year, 4,668 2020 Tesla Model 3s had to get theirs. Of those, the 23% (1,051 cars) failed the inspection, requiring various faults to be immediately addressed by Tesla owners. In all, mechanics found 1,392 faults among the Model 3s being inspected, a rate that is three times as many as any other electric vehicle model that underwent an inspection last year.

Danish Transportation Agency Manager Lone Otto called it a “furiously high failing percentage.”

“The figures indicate that the quality and durability of the Tesla Model 3, at least in the first model years, are not on par with other car brands. It is something we have also experienced and which we now keep an eye on.”

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Politicians in Northern Jutland are pushing back against new carbon taxes on diesel, saying the increase in costs is punishing Danish fishermen. Frederikshavn Councillor Jens Borup told DR that fishermen have no other choice but to use diesel engines, and they are now suffering financially for it.

“The fishing industry is losing the fish, and the fishermen have more expensive operating costs. There are jobs being lost.”

He says with cars and now even commercial trucks there is at least an electric option, but no one is building electric fishing boats.

🇫🇮

Electric vehicle owners in Finland can expect to pay more in taxes on their EVs next year. The increase in electric vehicle sales has reduced state revenues, and the Finnish Minister of Transportation, Lulu Ranne, says that the government cannot afford any further tax revenue losses. Ranne said in an interview with Tekniikka & Talous that she doesn’t believe the likely significant increase in taxes will cause any major backlash from EV owners.

“If you can afford to buy an electric car, you can also afford to pay a little more in taxes.”

The finance ministry is planning to increase vehicle taxes by some €35 million in 2026 by mainly targeting EVs and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

🦠Outbreaks🦠

🇩🇰

Influenza infection numbers continue to rocket upward. The Statens Serum Institute says the flu season is in full swing with both confirmed cases and flu-related hospitalizations “at a high level,” and both continue to increase. Hospitalizations for influenza surpassed that of COVID in the last couple of weeks.

RS virus cases are also “at a high level,” but related hospital admissions are considered to be “at a medium level.” That said, the SSI notes that the RSV positivity percentage is increasing, which likely means case numbers and hospitalizations will too.

Surprisingly, COVID numbers continue to fall pretty much across the board.

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Region Southern Denmark is reporting that the latest vaccination effort was another success. In Denmark, the fall and winter inoculation campaign against COVID and influenza began in October and ended just a few days before Christmas. In the region, 74.2% of those eligible received a COVID vaccination while 75.1% had a flu shot. Among the most vulnerable, elderly seniors in care, the numbers were even higher, with 85% getting a COVID booster and 85.4% receiving an influenza vaccination.

Region CEO Kurt Espersen:

“We are satisfied with the final result even if it is below last year's numbers. The region offered vaccinations at over 80 different locations at regional vaccination centres and at the Danish Doctor’s Vaccinations Service, which helped with a good turnout again this year.”

The region is already beginning to plan for the next vaccination campaign, which will likely take place again this fall.

🇸🇪

In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (264) have dripped (-49) while the number of severely infected people requiring intensive care (7) has crept upward (+2).

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Swedish health experts are lobbying the Swedish Public Health Agency to issue a national recommendation for pregnant women, infants, and young children to take the new RS virus vaccine. Since COVID restrictions went the way of the Dodo bird, respiratory infections like RSV have come roaring back. Winter infection numbers now routinely surpass epidemic thresholds. Infants and elderly seniors are most at risk, but now a new RSV vaccine could help protect them.

Among the groups urging the government to expand access to the vaccine are the Swedish Association of Pediatricians and the Swedish Association of Midwives. They both think a national recommendation should be introduced as soon as possible.

The vaccine has been available since 2023, but the Swedish Public Health Agency has yet to issue a national recommendation for pregnant women and infants to use it.

State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén:

“It is a fairly new vaccine. The authority looks closely at the available data and collects the data. And then we will eventually conduct an investigation into whether this is something that should be recommended more widely.”

Until then, Gisslén recommends parents do what they can to protect their children as much as possible.

“You prevent the child from meeting people who are sick, you make sure not to meet too many people indoors, especially when you have a newborn, and you are careful about regular hand hygiene.”

🇫🇮

The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy found that Finland’s COVID-era business subsidies helped preserve around 40,000 jobs. Chief researcher Olli Ropponen emphasized the importance of early pandemic grants in rescuing jobs but reiterated Etla’s previous criticism of how funds were distributed. During the first two years of the pandemic, Finland allocated approximately €2.4 billion in public grants to firms as the pandemic brought the economy to a halt.

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Air travel through Finnish airports appears to be bouncing back from the lows of the COVID pandemic. According to Statistics Finland, nearly two million people passed through Finnish airports last month. That is the first month since January of 2020 to reach levels last seen before the coronavirus arrived and all but shut down air travel.

Passenger numbers grew by 9% year over year. Travel to airports in Lapland saw the single biggest increase in air travellers, while Helsinki Airport, the country’s biggest, saw the majority of passengers, accounting for 67% of all travellers passing through Finnish airports.

Trump vs Denmark & Greenland

US President Donald Trump does not appear to be hearing what Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland’s Prime Minister Muté B. Egede have said to him repeatedly. Despite both emphasizing to the president that Greenland is not for sale and that Greenlanders do not want to be Danish or American, Trump continues to insist that he wants control of the country anyway. His latest comments on the matter were made to reporters onboard Air Force One over the weekend.

“I don't really know what requirement Denmark has for it, but it would be a very unfriendly act if they didn't let it happen.”

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spoke to DR on Sunday.

“What we hear from the president, we have heard before. And our answer remains the same. I think that Greenland’s Parliament [and Greenlandic Prime Minister Muté B. Egede] has said it very clearly: Greenland is not for sale. I think we have made our position known.”

This latest twist comes after reports from American media that Frederiksen’s 45 minute phone call with Trump two weeks ago about Greenland was “fiery.”

The Prime Minister also called for European unity on the issue. The matter almost certainly came up on Sunday night, when Frederiksen had dinner in Copenhagen with her counterparts from Sweden, Finland, and Norway.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told reporters on Sunday that Denmark has Finland’s full support on the Greenland issue.

“The starting principle is that borders cannot be shifted by someone else.”

Last week, a Danish Member of the European Parliament Anders Vistisen landed in hot water when he was speaking in Parliament about Donald Trump’s obsession with Greenland by telling the president to “F**k off.”

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Frederiksen also recently addressed the issue in a long post on social media about the “unfamiliar and fierce foreign policy situation” Denmark finds itself in. With Trump as President, Frederiksen said that “Europeans will have to navigate a new reality.”

She said that it is important that Denmark the United States, and Europe as a whole, continue to respect each other as allies, especially in presenting a united front in places like the Arctic.

“In parallel, we have reached out to our European colleagues and explained the Danish position. As it is my opinion meets broad support. We must remember that Denmark is not alone, but that we of course stand together in the EU. I have no doubt at all that we must very, very quickly make Europe stronger by any means imaginable. Economic, military, technological. We are a small country. But we belong to a strong continent. A continent that has experienced difficult times before, and which must now find all its strength again. We have briefed party leaders and the Parliamentary Foreign Policy Committee. And both in the EU, and here at home, we are in full swing preparing for various economic scenarios, which is also happening in close cooperation with Danish businesses and the trade unions. But we are in a difficult situation, which has unfortunately become more unpredictable. And the seriousness has not diminished.”

Frederiksen also emphasized that in the last few weeks she has met with the leaders of Greenland and the Faroe Islands who are all on the same page representing a united commonwealth.

🌊Baltic Sea Security🌊

🇩🇰

The Danish Armed Forces are stepping up surveillance in the Baltic Sea and in the crucial Kattegat Strait, connecting the North and Baltic seas as part of an overall NATO effort to protect critical undersea infrastructure. The Danish military says it is intensifying monitoring of the waters around Denmark using aircraft, ships, and “other relevant capacities.” The task is not a new one for the Danish military, which already keeps a close eye on ship traffic with some 400,000 vessels of all sizes that navigate each year through the Kattegat back and forth between the North and Baltic Seas. Coastal radar is already in use around the clock, 365 days a year.

In connection with the NATO mission in the Baltic, the Danish Armed Forces will increase surveillance on the water by deploying extra naval vessels and increasing Air Force deployments in the skies above the Baltic. The heightened surveillance began this month and will remain in place for the foreseeable future, according to Forsvaret.

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A Danish naval vessel is busy shadowing a Russian military ship in the Kattegat Strait off Denmark’s most northern point, Skagen. The ship was also shadowed by the British Navy last week.

🇫🇮

In the aftermath of the damage to the EstLink power cable and Finnish authorities detaining the oil tanker, Eagle S, Finland’s foreign affairs minister says more needs to be done to crack down on Russia’s ‘shadow fleet.’ Minister Elina Valtonen says that Finland is working with allies to more effectively confront Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. Valtonen said it is important to uphold the rule of law, but it is also time to think outside the box.

She was speaking on the Finnish talk show Ykkösaamu:

“We are in a situation where Russia is waging an aggressive war in violation of international law in Europe. It must be addressed. International law has so far been quite clear about how to respond to so-called instrumentalized migration. In practice, this has effectively limited the ability to take adequate action. After all, on the opposing side is a country that does not respect the law at all and seems to use immigration as a means of attack.”

Valtonen added that other European countries are also seeking legally grounded interpretations to take more decisive action to confront Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics.

🇺🇸/ 🇫🇮

A report from the Washington Post claiming that there is a growing consensus among US and European intelligence agencies that damages to undersea cables in the Baltic Sea over the last year were accidental is being met with skepticism in the EU.

The director of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats, Jukka Savolainen, said that he highly doubted the newspaper’s assessment.

"It's a fact that there is no evidence to suggest it [the cable damage] was intentional. But that does not prove it was an accident either.”

Savolainen noted that a ship’s anchor doesn’t normally just fall off, and to have it happen three times in a calendar year in the same area is highly improbable.

Finland's preliminary investigation into the case is still ongoing, and the Eagle S remains in the custody of Finnish authorities.

🇬🇧/ 🇷🇺

More maritime drama, this time in the English Channel. The British Royal Navy intercepted and escorted a Russian spy ship away from critical undersea infrastructure last week.

British Secretary of State for Defense John Healey:

"My message to President Putin is clear. We know what you are doing, and we will not shy away from tough measures to protect Britain.”

🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺

NATO 🇺🇦

The war is not going well in Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that things are not exactly developing as he had hoped.

“The front line is moving in the wrong direction. We will really have to get into the game and not reduce our support for Ukraine.”

Rutte is calling on allies to increase their support for Ukraine because it is crucial that Russia does not win this war.

🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, says that European intelligence services are warning of the possibility of a Russian attack on Europe from 2028.

"Many of our national secret services are giving us information that Russia could test the EU's defense readiness in three to five years.”

Kallas says that the EU needs to invest in all aspects of war preparedness. She says Russian President Vladimir Putin only respects strength.

"Europe's failure to invest in military capabilities also sends a dangerous signal to the aggressor. Weakness invites him."

🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺

Lithuania continues to press for a much harder line in responding to Russian hybrid warfare and sabotage attacks. Foreign Affairs Minister Kestutis Budrys is urging NATO to take more robust action against Russia.

"We are now dealing with sabotage operations, with real attacks that were planned and carried out by military intelligence. And if the military is responsible for this, we also have to change the way we deal with these attacks. We as allies have to respond to this more robustly if we want to prevent Russia from taking the next steps of escalation.”

Budrys says that NATO’s response does not have to be symmetrical.

“We could support Ukraine more by supplying it with certain weapons systems. For me, the crucial question is: Who is planning such attacks? And who is carrying them out? We cannot ignore that when it is parts of the Russian military."

🇺🇸🇫🇮🇵🇱🇷🇴/ 🇷🇺

A report by the US Helsinki Commission claims that Russia has escalated its hybrid warfare tactics in the NATO countries. The commission, a US government human rights organization, said in the report that there have been nearly 150 different hybrid warfare tactics employed across the different NATO member countries. Each of which are suspected to be connected to Russia in one way or another. The hybrid operations fall under four categories: attacks on critical infrastructure, inciting violence, weaponizing migration, and election interference. Russia has used immigrants to swamp the borders of both Finland and Poland; attacks on underwater infrastructure have been well documented in the Baltic, and election interference from Russia caused chaos recently in Romania.

Helsinki Commission policy advisor Jordan Warlick credited Finnish authorities for recently detaining a tanker in Russia’s ‘shadow fleet,’ the Eagle S, after an electricity transmission line in the Baltic was damaged.

"This decisive response sets an example for how NATO should treat these incursions: as acts of war demanding a resolute and coordinated response."

🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺🇧🇾

Poland seems to be at the epicentre of Russia’s continued hybrid warfare tactics. Last year, 29,707 illegal immigrants from some 50 different countries were apprehended crossing from Belarus into Poland. The Polish Border Guard says the immigrants have Russian visas and are receiving help from authorities in Russia and Belarus to cross into Poland. They seem to have winter clothing and be equipped with ladders, bolt cutters, and even electric grinders, unusual equipment for poor immigrants from third world countries, to cross the now heavily fenced-off border zone. This has been a situation that has remained a constant problem since 2021.

It isn’t just weaponized migration at the border; Poland’s cyber security force says that the hybrid warfare is being keenly felt in cyberspace. Last year, Poland was targeted by around 100,000 cyberattacks, or one every two hours throughout the year. In addition, Russia has been relentlessly targeting Poland with misinformation campaigns. In one noteworthy incident, Russian hackers got into computers of the Polish news agency and planted a fake story that Polish soldiers had crossed into Ukraine to seize territory. A blatant attempt to try and create a rift between the two countries.

Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz:

“We experience attacks in cyberspace, and the costs are often enormous. In the same way, what is happening in the Baltic Sea are actions against Europe.”

Poland is now asking the EU Commission to do more to tackle the spread of misinformation and allocate funding to improve European defenses, not just with tanks and guns, but also in cyberspace.

🇩🇰🇳🇴🇫🇮🇸🇪

The Nordic prime ministers met in Copenhagen on Sunday with a full agenda of important issues to discuss. Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that with an increasingly “unpredictable reality” and a deteriorating security situation in Europe, it is more important than ever for Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland to remain as close friends and allies.

“At our meeting today, we discussed our regional defense and security cooperation. We share the seriousness of the situation. And I myself have no doubt that defense and security will and must continue to have a high priority in Denmark, the Nordic region, and the rest of Europe.”

Frederiksen hosted Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre at her home for dinner on Sunday after a full day of meetings between the four.

🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺

The Finnish Prime Minister's Office has released its first annual review of information influence activities targeting Finland, highlighting Russia's use of threatening and inflammatory rhetoric. Published last week, the report, based on public sources, reveals that while Finland is not currently a primary target of Russian influence, the Kremlin treats it as aggressively as it does other NATO nations. Finland joined the alliance nearly two years ago. Moscow’s disinformation campaigns focus on fearmongering narratives, including framing NATO as aggressive, criticizing Western support for Ukraine, and questioning sanctions. Compiled by the Strategic Communications Team, the annual report aims to shed light on these tactics as Russia’s influence methods grow increasingly more sophisticated.

🇩🇪🇱🇹

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was in Lithuania last week, where he highlighted the role the German army is playing in securing NATO’s eastern flank. In a press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart, Pistorius said that Germany is making a significant contribution to NATO defences in the Baltic state.

"We are pulling together to ensure security on NATO’s eastern flank. I think we all feel it: something is growing here."

The minister said that the deployment of a brigade of troops to Lithuania is progressing “consistently and according to plan.”

Around 500 German troops and equipment should be stationed in Lithuania by the end of the year.

🇩🇪🇺🇦

Funding for Ukraine continues to fuel a bitter split between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock. Scholz is insisting that financing new aid for Ukraine will impact social security benefits in Germany. Baerbock says that is poppycock.

“The three billion euros have absolutely nothing to do with social security benefits such as pensions, which are also guaranteed by law.”

With a national election looming, Scholz would like to press pause on any increases in military donations to Ukraine. The three other parties in his governing coalition, including Baerbock’s Green Party, all support boosting Ukrainian aid via a budget expenditure before next month’s national vote.

🇩🇪🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺

Germany’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Annalena Baerbock, is throwing support behind the idea that Germany should participate in a peacekeeping force should a peace agreement be struck to end the war in Ukraine.

"A lasting, just peace requires more than pseudo-solutions. That's why I'm thinking about the different elements of stable peacekeeping with central European partners and Ukraine.”

Baerbock emphasized that any such peacekeeping force would have to include soldiers from countries across Europe and among other Western allies.

"A peacekeeping mission can also be an element, which of course would require us Europeans, but also others. In this case also from countries outside Europe where Putin is interested in having good relations.”

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The latest round of American sanctions aimed at Russia’s oil and gas industry and the ‘shadow fleet’ of aging tankers sailing under flags of convenience seems to be having an impact. The company ‘Energy Intelligence’ is reporting that banks in India, a major destination for sanctioned Russian oil, are now blocking payments for Russian crude oil due to the latest American sanctions. In 2023, India purchased some 90 million tonnes of oil from Russia, which corresponds to about 40% of India’s oil needs.

Odds & Ends

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Denmark’s water infrastructure is at high risk of serious cyber attacks. That is the assessment of the Danish Centre for Cyber Security. The agency turned its attention to the water sector after a small water plant was struck by a cyber attack last December, leaving about 50 homes without drinking water for a period of time.

Acting Agency Head Mark Fiedel:

“The water sector is a fundamental component of what constitutes critical infrastructure in Denmark. It goes without saying that it can quickly become serious if the drinking water supply is disrupted.”

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Denmark is increasing its military presence in the Arctic. The Ministry of Defense has tabled plans to spend 8.9 billion kroner on three new vessels equipped to operate in the Arctic and defend Denmark’s interests in the region. The final details of the plan to increase Denmark’s military presence in the Arctic should be hammered out this week. The ships are expected to be equipped with advanced radar systems, weaponry, and helicopter decks.

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While the internet debates whether he is or is not a Nazi after his awkward hand gesture at the Trump inauguration, Elon Musk added fuel to the fire by addressing a voter meeting organized by the German far-right party AfD by video on Saturday. Musk told a cheering crowd that they should be proud to be German and that there is too much guilt about Germany’s dark past. Musk has been a recent vocal supporter of AfD as the billionaire continues his journey of right-wing radicalization. The anti-democracy, anti-immigrant, pro-Russian, AfD party has been referred to by some media as “Nazi-lite,” and there are certainly actual Nazis among the party rank and file.

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To have and to hold, for better, for worse, for richer, for poorer, in sickness and in health, until we go online, do us part. Soon couples in Finland can file for an e-divorce online through a special ‘my court’ portal. Then they can sit back and follow the divorce proceedings through the court system from their computer screen. Last year, the Finnish court system handed down decisions on 15,377 divorce applications.

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The birth rate in Finland, already scraping the bottom of the barrel, continues to drop. Statistics Finland says there were 43,711 children born last year, which saw the fertility rate decline to 1.25, another record low. It also marks the third consecutive year the birth rate has fallen.

Finland’s population grew by more than 33,000 people last year to 5.64 million people. However, the growth rate was almost entirely driven by migration, even though there were 10,000 fewer immigrants arriving in 2024. Ukrainians make up the single largest group of immigrants in the country.

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A Finnish study has found that people who walked or cycled at least 60 kilometres a week had a 10% lower risk of taking sick leave and a 20% lower risk of long-term absences compared to people who are less active. According to the study from the Finnish Institute for Health, on average, the most active commuters took 4.5 fewer sick days annually.

However, it also found that fewer than one in five Finns walk or bike to work year-round. By gender, 19% of women and 15% of men regularly walk or cycle at least one kilometre while commuting to work. Young adults were the most active commuters, while less educated men were the least.

The institute is recommending more sustainable commuting by improving public transportation and ensuring proper winter maintenance of walking and cycling paths. Employers and educational institutions could also help by providing bicycle parking, changing facilities, employee bicycle benefits, and flexible work hours.