Monday Morning News & Notes
COVID numbers keep falling in Europe. Denmark prepares fall booster dose campaign.
🦠Pandemic🦠
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The BA.5-driven COVID wave continues to ebb across most of Europe. The latest European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control weekly pandemic assessment says the number of infections dropped by 13% last week compared to the week previous. COVID cases across Europe are 9% of the pandemic maximum, albeit they are also very underreported. Infection numbers among the most vulnerable, and most tested population, seniors 65 years old and older, also continued to decrease and now sit at 26% of the pandemic maximum.
Of the 28 countries across the EU that report COVID hospitalization and intensive care admission numbers, just four report seeing rising statistics in one or both categories.
The number of pandemic fatalities also continues to fall across Europe for a fifth straight week. The rate per million population dropped from 10.1 to 7.1 from one week to the next. That said, Estonia and Iceland both reported a rising number of coronavirus deaths.
“Increases in severity indicators in these few specific countries were very recent, with nothing else to suggest a concerning change in the overall epidemiology at this stage. “
The BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron sub-variants continue to dominate Europe coming back in 99.2% of all sequenced positive test results last week. Keeping in mind the rate of both testing and sequencing has fallen drastically. The feared BA.2.75 variant continues to spin its wheels making up just 0.3% of all cases, about 38 infected people last week.
On the vaccination front, 53.7% of the total population across the European Union and the greater European Economic Area have two vaccine doses and a booster shot. Among seniors over the age of 60 that number rises to 83.9%. 6.3% of the population has had a 2nd booster dose while the number rises to 15.1% for seniors.
The ECDC is forecasting that infection numbers and pandemic deaths will decrease over the next two weeks while hospital admissions will remain stable.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
🦠New Variant Alert🦠
A new 2nd generation BA.2 sub-variant is causing concern. Dubbed BJ.1, the new variant, with an astonishing amount of mutations, has been confirmed in West Bengal, India, Singapore, and it has already arrived in Europe with confirmed cases in Austria as well as in the United States. Of its mutations, the 13 in the spike protein are causing the most alarm among epidemiologists as a possible sign it might more easily evade prior immunity. In West Bengal it seems to be outpacing the BA.2.75 variant.
Ulrich Elling is an Austrian geneticist.
As always, I would advise caution as it takes time and lots of data to really understand any emerging variants. It is still very early days with this one. We also seem to have geographical differences in COVID variants growth rates. For example, the BA.2.75 variant, which exploded in India but has so far been a dud in Europe.
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The Statens Serum Institute doesn’t update COVID statistics over the weekends, and it will table three days worth of pandemic data later today.
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Denmark’s major fall booster dose campaign begins on Thursday. You can find the full details including who is eligible and how they are piggy-backing flu-shots on to the coronavirus vaccination effort in a previous report on Informeret HERE.
Beginning on the 15th, the oldest and most vulnerable get a first crack at a 4th vaccine dose. In Metro Copenhagen, Region Hovedstaden will use its five big vaccination centers to administer booster doses. You can also get the jab at a family doctor. Once you receive a vaccination invitation in your e-Boks then you can book an appointment on vacciner.dk. The region also has people standing by to help book appointments at 38.66.00.00. The phone line is open from 08:00 to 16:00 every day. You can also find more information online on the capital region’s dedicated COVID vaccination page (in Danish) HERE.
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Region Midtjylland says they have doses of the new bivalent vaccines ready to go, staff are in place, and by September 26, invitations to get a 2nd booster dose will be sent out to the e-Boks of everyone who is eligible.
Once the most vulnerable populations, including seniors in care, get their booster dose beginning on September 15, then the major push begins on the first day of October.
Regional Council Chair Anders Kühnau says a vaccination help line at 70.23.24.15 is also available with people standing by from 08:00 to 15:00 on weekdays and 09:00 to 12:00 on weekends.
“From the region's side, we are aware that most people can find the answers to their questions about vaccines and appointments themselves. But we also know that some of us need some extra help finding our way around booking an appointment online. That is why I am also happy that we have a capable telephone hotline for citizens who need help.”
The region has vaccination centers in Aarhus, Silkeborg, Viborg, Herning, Holstebro, Horsens, Randers, and Grenaa. They will be complemented by mobile pop+up vaccination sites in Samsø and in Skive, Lemvig, Ringkøbing-Skjern, Struer, Horsens, Hedensted, Odder, Skanderborg, Favrskov, and Syddjurs as of October 1.
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Over the last week, new infections were largely concentrated among those 20years old and older, but the 40 to 64 year old age group was by far the hardest hit. The numbers don’t seem to be showing any back-to school coronavirus surge, but PCR testing rates among young people are probably negligible. So hard to draw any firm conclusions there.
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As far as COVID hospitalizations, other than a small bump among infants under the age of two it is the older populations 65 years old and older who are bearing the brunt of severe infections requiring hospital treatment.
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The number of people using public transit in Denmark, especially in the biggest cities, is falling like a rock, and the two biggest reasons are the pandemic and the energy crisis. A report from Jyllands-Posten says ridership numbers are so bad that one out of every seven regional bus routes are at risk of being shut down. The Danish regions lost between 10 to 20% of bus travelers during the pandemic, passengers that have yet to return. Now the energy crisis is causing diesel, gas, and electricity prices to skyrocket, compounding the crisis. The newspaper reports that the regions have already lost 233 million kroner this year, about 14% of their public transit budget, and those losses are expected to get even worse next year.
Speaking to DR, Transport Minister Trine Bramsen says there must be an onus on regions and transit operators to make an effort to get passengers back onboard. That said, the minister also acknowledged that negotiations are underway to find a solution.
“It is a problem I am familiar with, but we must never hand out blank checks. The transport companies have been called to a meeting where we must work together on solutions for public transport.”
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Denmark saw what might be a pandemic-related baby boom last year. In 2021, hospitals saw the highest number of new babies in the last 11 years, according to numbers from the Danish Health Data Agency. There were 63,710 babies born I last year in Denmark, over 2,000 more than was recorded the year before. The agency also reported there were fewer underweight children born last year, which it says may indicate a drop in the number of pregnant women who are smoking.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency updates its COVID numbers once a week every Thursday.
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Usually some of the Swedish regions offer updates over the weekend but they have their hands full with Sunday’s National election. So some of the usual updates are MIA this weekend.
🇫🇮
The Finnish Institute for Health only updates its COVID numbers once a week, every Thursday.
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Coronavirus activity is dropping in Finland, according to the latest results from COVID wastewater testing from the first week of September. Wastewater surveillance has been showing virus activity has been trending downward since the beginning of August. The one exception is the Finnish capital region, where coronavirus rates remain stable.
The Finnish Institute for Health says you would have to go back to January 2022 to see the last time COVID wastewater surveillance showed such low activity.
The institute adds that it is reducing the number of locations it will check wastewater for coronavirus activity. Monitoring will continue weekly in nine locations in Espoo, Helsinki, Joensuu, Jyväskylä, Kuopio, Oulu, Tampere, Turku, and Vaasa. While once a month sampling will happen at sewage treatment plants in Lappeenranta, Pietarsaari, Rovaniemi, and Seinäjoki.
Wastewater surveillance shows that the BA.4 and BA.5 variants are still dominant in Finland. The BA.2.75 variant was first detected in wastewater testing in August.
🇨🇦
The Public Health Agency of Canada has approved a pediatric dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine for children aged six months to four years old. The agency says independent studies of the vaccine and its own thorough review of all available evidence show the benefits of the vaccine in protecting children from COVID outweigh any potential risks.
The young children would have their vaccinations done with three doses. They would have to wait three weeks between the first two shots and then get a 3rd dose eight weeks after the second.
The pediatric dose of the vaccine would be the original formula, as the new bivalent vaccines targeting the Omicron variant have not yet been approved for use on anyone under the age of 18.
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Canada has thrown out millions of COVID vaccine doses because they passed their expiry date, according to a report from CBC News.
The national broadcaster says federal health authorities had to junk about 8.9 million doses sitting in the federal vaccine stockpile. This doesn’t include any waste among the doses distributed to territories and provinces.
On top of that, 13.6 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine also had to be junked. These are the doses Canada received through the international COVAX initiative. At the time, the donation was very controversial as COVAX was designed to ensure vaccine supplies for poor and developing countries. A dollar figure isn’t attached to this vaccine waste, but that number is likely to be very significant.
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COVID hospitalizations continued a downward slide across Canada according to the latest weekly pandemic update from the Public Health Agency of Canada.
In the week ending September 5, the total number of hospital beds in use by coronavirus patients fell by 376 to 4,371 total beds in use. Of those, pandemic related general admissions saw the biggest drop falling 327 to a total of 4,162 infected patients. The number of severely infected people being admitted to an ICU dropped by 49 to 209 intensive care beds occupied. And of those, the number of people on a ventilator eased from 100 to 91 week-to-week.
In the last week 18,366 new infections were reported across Canada (underreported) while the country suffered another 238 coronavirus deaths pushing the to-date total pandemic deaths in Canada to 44,347.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 33,812,008 1st vaccine doses (88.43% of the total population) while 31,445,242 people (82.24%) have had a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,806,329 people have a had a booster shot.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
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Fears that the Copenhagen Pride event in Denmark would become a monkeypox super-spreader even appear to have been misplaced. The Statens Serum Institute says there were up to five new infections in the past few weeks, and over the last seven infection numbers have actually gone down.
The Danish Health Authority was out offering vaccinations during Pride celebrations, but the agency doesn’t believe this explains the dropping case numbers.
SSI Senior Physician Anders Koch spoke to TV2:
“I think the primary reason is behavioral changes among people who are at particular risk. They have taken steps to protect themselves and limited the number of casual sexual contacts.”
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
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Dansk Industri is pouring cold water on ambitious plans for a five-fold increase in offshore wind power by 2030. Currently, wind farms in Danish waters produce 2.3 gigawatts of wind energy. The goal is to drastically ramp that up to 12.9 gigawatts I’m the next seven years. That would power about 600,000 homes across Denmark.
But Dansk Industri Managing Director Lars Sandahl says to be realistic those goals are not achievable. He says setting up an offshore wind farm takes about nine years to build and bring online.
“I will just have to be the one who has to be square with people and say that it is completely unrealistic to achieve that.”
However, Danish Climate, Energy and Supply Minister Dan Jørgensen insists the timeline for getting an offshore wind farm set up from scratch can be reduced to less than seven years. And that will ensure the goals laid out in the political agreement reached in June can be achieved.
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Like other kommunes across Denmark, staff in Viborg will meet this week to discuss the energy savings mandates handed down by the Danish government last week. Among them, that public buildings must set the thermostat no higher than 19 degrees beginning October 1.
Nævnenes Hus Director Christian Lützen spoke to DR:
“It's quite simple. If the instruction is that we must turn down to 19 degrees for reasons that we can all understand, then that is what we will do. If need be then staff can bring a sweater to work.”
The other option to help reduce energy use would be to, again, let employees work from home more often.
“After the COVID lockdown, we have gotten adjusted to working from home, so employees could also have the opportunity to work from home a few days a week.”
🇪🇺 🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
As European Union countries hotly debate whether a price cap should be placed on Russian gas as one avenue to tackle the energy crisis, Denmark is wading into the debate.
Danish Climate Minister Dan Jørgensen says Denmark supports introducing a common price ceiling on Russian gas even while other countries like Hungary oppose the idea. Jørgensen says where Denmark draws the line is placing a price cap on all imported gas noting that would impact Norway.
“It is important that we do not inadvertently put a country like Norway in the same box as Russia, because there is a really big difference between the two. We also have to deal with the above-normal prices that exist for other sources of gas not coming from Russia than the tools we are using on Russian gas.”
Among the other options on the table in the extraordinary meetings in Brussels last week was to place caps on energy earnings. The idea is to target energy companies making massive profits during the energy crisis and funnel a chunk of those profits to helping countries get through the winter and speed up the green energy transition. Denmark is also charting a cautious path there, as the climate minister notes, they must be careful to separate companies producing fossil fuel energy from those involved in renewables.
Dan Jørgensen says whatever action is chosen it must “benefit the green transition and not harm it. We have to be careful that we don't do it in such a way that it could have negative consequences over the long run.”
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Germany is prepared to face the approaching winter with or without Russian gas, according to Chancellor Olaf Scholz. He says if Russia continues to keep taps turned off as it weaponizes its energy exports, then Germany will fall back on its coal-powered plants to keep homes heated. Scholz says nuclear powered plants in the country’s southern regions should come online by early in the new year for additional help. The chancellor added that terminals have also been prepared in northern Germany to import liquified natural gas as an additional backstop against the energy crisis.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
Ukrainian Armed Forces are storming through Russian defensive lines and recapturing huge swaths of territory in a matter of days, territory it took Russia months of fighting to occupy. The blitz by Ukrainian fighters has been incredibly successful and spells really bad news for Russia, according to a number of experts who spoke to Danish news agency DR.
Swedish Defense Academy Military Analyst Anders Puck Nielsen calls the massive and lightning-fast gains for Ukraine a huge step in the war.
“Today has been the biggest since March 26, when the Russians withdrew from northern Ukraine. It is a huge area that the Ukrainians have won back in just a few days. It seems that the Ukrainians have gained momentum and that the Russians are experiencing some kind of collapse.”
Nielsen says Russia will be very hard pressed to muster a response to the Ukrainian offensive.
“I think it looks pretty difficult for the Russians. If they move forces to recapture Izium, for example, there will be weaknesses elsewhere. I find it difficult to see what a Russian response should be to this.”
Norwegian Defense Academy Associate Professor Peter Viggo Jakobsen says the complete rout of Russian forces has been shocking.
“It surprises me that Russia does not have more control over things. What you start to wonder about is whether the Russians are really capable of anything more than this.”
DR’s Correspondent in Ukraine Louise Brodthagen Jensen says Ukraine has cut Russian supply lines.
“It's like watching dominoes fall one by one as these cities come back into Ukrainian hands. These cities have been very important for Russian supply lines, where personnel and military hardware have been transported up to the Kharkiv region.”
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The International Atomic Energy Agency is continuing to make urgent calls for a United Nations-backed safety zone around the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine. The plant, Europe’s largest, initiated a cold shutdown of the last remaining reactor after the external electricity connection was again taken down to shelling nearby. While the back-up power-line was eventually restored the IAEA says the chances of a nuclear accident are too high, and the Ukrainian staff operating the Russian occupied facility decided the 6th and last remaining reactor that was still online should be shutdown. This would leave the facility fully dependent on emergency diesel generators to provide electricity for vital safety functions.
Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi:
“This is an unsustainable situation, and it is becoming increasingly uncertain.”
Grossi is calling on Ukrainian and Russian forces to immediately stop shelling in the area around the power plant as it continues to damage the facility and hinder vital operations.
“Despite this damage, plant operators, and engineers have been able to restore one of the reserve power lines, in very challenging circumstances, to provide the ZNPP with badly-needed external electricity. However, I remain gravely concerned about the situation at the plant, which remains in danger as long as any shelling continues. To address this serious situation, consultations have begun on the urgent need to establish a nuclear safety and security protection zone at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant.”
A secure off-site power supply from the grid and back-up power supply systems are essential for ensuring nuclear safety and preventing a nuclear accident, even when the reactors are no longer operating. This requirement is among the seven indispensable nuclear safety and security pillars that the Director-General outlined at the beginning of the war.
🇩🇰 🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union has made it official that a visa facilitation agreement reached with Russia in 2007 will be suspended. With Russia joining a visa classification group that includes Somalia, Syria, and Eritrea, it will make it much harder for Russian citizens to travel into the EU.
European countries in the Baltics and Poland have taken it a step further, enacting a near ban on Russians crossing the border. In Denmark, the Ministry of Immigration and Integration says it will follow the EU’s lead, by also suspending bilateral visa agreements with Russia.
Minister Kaare Dybvad Bek:
“It is provocative that Russians travel to European countries for example, to take a holiday while their country has invaded a free and democratic European country.”
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The Danish port of Fredericia continues to act as a temporary military staging ground. The port has been handing a number of incoming and outgoing shipments of military equipment destined for the NATO front lines along the border with Russia. Most recently, 14 Leopard 2A7 tanks arrived on their way to Estonia, marking the first time that the new tanks will be deployed internationally. For the next six months, the huge tanks and about 160 Danish soldiers will be stationed in Estonia to take part in NATO efforts there.