Monday Morning News & Notes
Booster doses save lives. The pandemic blinders keep coming on.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇪🇺🦠💉
A twice-a-year vaccine booster dose campaign would greatly reduce COVID hospitalizations and save lives, especially among vulnerable seniors, but uptake is growing increasingly lackluster and most countries in Europe are simply not even bothering. This is according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
The agency says all available data indicate that both the original and variant-specific vaccine formulas increase protection against severe infections resulting in hospitalization and death. Although it does add that more follow-up is needed to nail down the efficacy of the new bivalent doses.
Hybrid immunity, infection and vaccination, also offer strong protection “lasting possibly beyond 12 months.” However, the ECDC adds hybrid immunity “has not developed uniformly across populations, with the elderly reportedly having the lowest rates.”
To that end, the agency has conducted mathematical modeling factoring in vaccine effectiveness, hybrid immunity, waning protection, and booster dose campaign scenarios. It also narrowed its focus to just those over 50.
It found that a booster dose campaign this fall with “an optimistic scenario” of high uptake would reduce COVID hospitalizations by between 21% to 32%. That protection against severe infections would last until at least February of next year. Add in a spring 2024 booster dose campaign, again with an optimist high uptake, and pandemic-related admissions would drop between 36% to 44%. It adds that “similar results were observed” in reducing coronavirus deaths.
But there are some fairly big flies in the ointment. First, uptake across Europe for a 2nd booster dose has been disappointingly low, especially among vulnerable seniors. Second, at the moment, just four countries in Europe have even bothered to publicly table recommendations for vulnerable populations to get a booster dose in 2023. Of those, just two have actually followed through with plans for actual vaccination campaigns.
The agency is urging countries in the European Union and the greater European Economic Area to plan for regular booster dose efforts targeting high-risk and vulnerable populations. It also wants COVID booster doses to be offered alongside influenza vaccinations. The ECDC also emphasizes that growing booster dose hesitancy needs to be addressed.
“Factors leading to declining uptake need to be identified, even in populations previously willing to be vaccinated. Future vaccination campaigns may consider developing targeted communication, focusing efforts on reaching high-priority groups through trusted channels and messengers, and providing clear information on which groups vaccination is being recommended to, the type of vaccines available and the timing. People should also be reminded why it is important to stay up-to-date with vaccination, particularly those in risk groups.”
🌎 🦠
While global COVID numbers continued to slide there are some potentially troubling signs in the latest weekly World Health Organization pandemic update. In the latest 28-day reporting period there were three-million new infections (-28%) and more than 23,000 more lives lost (-30%).
But contrary to global declines, infections and fatalities are seeing significant increases in several WHO regions and across a number of individual countries.
“Current trends in reported COVID cases continue to be underestimates of the true number of global infections and reinfections. This is partly due to the reductions in testing and delays in reporting in many countries.”
Of the six WHO global health regions, infection numbers have surged in South-East Asia (+481%) and in the Eastern Mediterranean (+144%). COVID fatalities also rose in South-East Asia (+109%) and the Eastern Mediterranean (+138%). In both cases, numbers decreased in the other four regions.
Among the individual countries, coronavirus cases rose in India (+937%), Iran (+210%), Qatar (+224%), Saudi Arabia (+227%), Brazil (+51%), and France (+92%). While infection numbers dropped by half in the United States it still recorded the most new infections of any nation on Earth with 455,939. In all cases the number of coronavirus cases is underreported.
COVID deaths also shot up in India (+494%) and Iran (+247%). The USA with 5,571 more lives lost (-40%), the United Kingdom with 2,708 more deaths (-13%), and Brazil with 1,246 corona deaths, saw the highest number of lives lost in the latest reporting period.
Of the 33 countries reporting hospitalization data to the WHO, seven registered pandemic-related admissions increases of 20% or higher. The countries seeing the highest number of new hospitalizations were Ukraine (+36%), France (+41%), and Italy (+59%).
Just 29 countries reported intensive care admissions data. Of those, France (+22%), Ukraine (+3%), and Australia (-5%) saw the highest number of new ICU COVID admissions.
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The world continues to be more and more blind to pandemic developments and the spread of new coronavirus variants. The World Health Organization says a mere 49,809 sequenced positive test results were submitted to the global genome database GISAID in the latest 28-day reporting period. The WHO says from what data is available, the XBB.1.5 variant continues to dominate globally making up 47.9% of what sequenced positive tests are still being reported. The global health agency notes that XBB, XBB.1.19, and XBB.1.16 are also seeing increased growth rates.
XBB.1.16 is thought to be driving infection numbers upward in places like India. The WHO says this new variant is the most contagious strain yet but it has so far not proven to cause more severe infections. It has been confirmed to be active in 29 countries to date.
WHO COVID Technical lead, and epidemiologist, Maria Van Kerkhove says while we are in a much better situation now than in the first two years of the pandemic, the biggest uncertainty that remains is the coronavirus itself.
“It hasn’t settled into a predictable pattern. It continues to evolve. Omicron is the variant of concern that remains dominant worldwide, and there still are more than 600 sub-lineages of Omicron that are in circulation. One of those variants that we are looking at is a variant that we have under monitoring. This is the XBB.1.16. It is actually very similar in profile to XBB.1.5. It has one additional mutation in the spike protein, which in lab studies shows increased infectivity as well as potential increased pathogenicity. So it is one that we are monitoring. And we are monitoring it because it has potential changes that we need to keep a good eye on. At present there are only 800 sequences of XBB.1.16 from 22 countries. Most of the sequences are from India. And in India, XBB.1.16 has replaced the other variants that are in circulation. So this is one to watch.”
Kerkhove says there is no sign yet that XBB.1.16 causes any more severe infection but “we have to remain vigilant.”
🇪🇺🦠
While infection waves are nowhere near what they were prior to the arrival of the Omicron variant and the advent of COVID vaccines, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says seniors continue to be most at risk. The agency says severe infections continue to disproportionately impact elderly people and those with underlying health conditions. In each wave, the ECDC says it has noted, that the largest numbers of hospitalizations, intensive care admissions, and deaths are among seniors over 65. Similarly, it says, the length of hospital stays to be treated for a coronavirus infection also increase with age.
The agency notes that despite a fraction of infections being detected as testing vanishes the number of cases hovers around levels comparable to that of late 2020, and all of 2021.
“This suggests high levels of ongoing coronavirus transmission in the EU/EEA and therefore an associated high risk of exposure for groups vulnerable to severe COVID.”
The ECDC says infection waves have stubbornly refused to conform to any predictable pattern but what they have noticed is that pandemic impacts tend to be much higher roughly along the same period of the influenza season.
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According to the latest pandemic snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, while most numbers were either fairly stable or decreasing there was a 15% increase in hospital occupancy in the week ending April 9.
Across the European Union, of the 13 countries reporting hospitalization data, Ireland saw hospital occupancy rise. While France and Greece had increasing numbers of intensive care admissions.
Of the 26 countries reporting case numbers, France was the only country in the EU to see infection numbers rise among seniors over the age of 65. Infections among vulnerable seniors have been rising in France for five straight weeks now. Via
There were 632 more pandemic-related deaths across Europe in the latest update. Among the 25 countries reporting COVID fatalities, only Latvia recorded increases in overall fatality numbers. But Romania saw escalating numbers of deaths among seniors 65 to 79 years old while Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, and Malta saw fatalities rise among seniors over 80.
Uptake for a second booster dose across Europe continues to be uninspiring. Just 17.3% of those over 18 have had a fourth dose. Among the highest-risk population, seniors over 60, a mere 35.5% have had a second booster dose.
Just six countries in all of Europe were testing and sequencing in numbers adequate enough to get reliable data. Of those, XBB.1.5 was dominant coming back in 58% of cases. It was followed by XBB (22.6%) and BA.2.75 (10.1%).
🇩🇰
Since we last published, Denmark has ended its once world-leading public COVID PCR testing regime. People can only get tested now at private clinics, or being admitted to an hospital, or if deemed necessary by a doctor. This will further erode the amount of available data used to monitor the pandemic and further blind Danish health agencies to coronavirus spread and the evolution of new variants.
The Statens Serum Institute has also ended its robust weekly pandemic updates. Instead, it will include a greatly diminished COVID update as one section of a weekly newsletter covering all active infectious diseases of note.
In its last report, COVID hospitalizations (360) a decline (-7) after seeing a jump last week, while the number of severely infected people in intensive care (7) dipped slightly (-2) and if those, the number of people on a ventilator (3) was unchanged. Pandemic-related admissions to a psychiatric facility (37) rose slightly (+3).
As you can see in the graph below, seniors over 65 continue to be at the highest risk of severe infections requiring hospitalization.
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The number of coronavirus deaths, with four new fatalities in the latest update, continues to be a concern. To date, 8,468 lives have been claimed by the virus since the pandemic began.
The seven-day positivity percentage is 15.3%.
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The SSI says that COVID wastewater surveillance, which has been scaled down, shows a slight increase in virus activity in weeks 11 and 12 followed by a slight decrease in week 13 (two weeks ago).
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Recombinant variants, XBB, continue to dominate in Denmark, especially XBB.1.5, which the SSI says accounts for about three-quarters of what positive tests are still being sequenced.
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People suffering from long-COVID in Denmark racked up many more sick days off from work than those who hadn’t been infected. This is according to the ongoing AFTER-COVID study conducted by the Danish Statens Serum Institute as it tries to nail down the impacts of long-COVID. In its latest deep dive, it looked at how many times 88,818 people had to call in sick in an eight-month period after having recovered from a coronavirus infection. It found that 4.5% of those suffering from long-COVID amassed more than four weeks of sick leave as they battled an array of symptoms. The rate among those who had never had a coronavirus infected was just 1.4%.
Department Head Professor Anders Hviid is the study lead:
“This puts a clear emphasis on the fact that long-COVID symptoms were not mild and transient for the vast majority of people, as many probably hoped early in the pandemic. In the current study, we are looking at Danes who were infected from November 2020 to February 2021. Since we see fewer cases of long-COVID after vaccination and after infection with the Omicron variant. We also expect that there will be less sick leave associated with an infection later in the pandemic.”
The study found that women, seniors, those who are obese, and people battling chronic diseases tended to be hit much harder by long-COVID and had to call in sick far more than other groups. In particular, people with fibromyalgia, diabetes, and lung disease appeared to be particularly hard hit.
The study is a pre-print and has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The study in full can be found HERE.
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While the pandemic isn’t over yet the Danish parliament will try and garner what lessons have been learned over the last three years. The parliament’s epidemic committee will hear from experts next month at Christianborg.
“The purpose of the consultation is to shed light on experiences and learning from the COVID epidemic, and how Denmark is prepared in relation to future epidemics of a similar strength.”
The hearing will take place on May 3rd. Among the experts invited to share their thoughts, among others, are Rigshospitalet Professor of Infectious Diseases Jens Lundgren, Danish Society for Patient Safety Director Inge Kristensen, and Aarhus University Professor of Political Science Michael Bang Petersen who headed up the HOPE project and advised the government on the social impacts of pandemic mandates and lockdowns.
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While the influenza season has been in steady decline since week 11, the Statens Serum Institute says the Easter holiday week with plenty of family gatherings saw flu case numbers jump, with 376 people testing positive, “which shows that there is still influenza in circulation.”
🇬🇧
COVID hospitalizations continue to tumble in the UK. According to data from the COVID Actuaries Response Group admissions were down 21% week to week. Hospitalizations declined across every English region, led by a 33% drop in London.
The reinfection rate, or R0, has also fallen to 0.86%. Anything over 1 indicates a rising epidemic.
Seniors in England, 75 years old and older, can get another COVID vaccine booster dose.
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While the UK Health Security Agency warns about the potential impacts of the much more contagious XBB.1.16 variant, it notes that so far it doesn’t seem to be exploding in England in the same way it seems to be in India. As of April 11, the agency says there have been just 66 confirmed cases of the variant.
💉🦠
A new study has found that variant-specific bivalent vaccines offer very strong protection against hospitalization and death due to a severe COVID infection. The study, published in The Lancet, found that a bivalent vaccine booster resulted in a 72% reduction in hospitalizations among seniors over 65.
The study involved over 500,000 people of whom 134,215 (24%) were boosted with a bivalent booster dose. During the study period, 32 participants who were boosted using a bivalent vaccine had to be hospitalized due to a severe infection. Among the non-boosted test group that jumped to 541.
Results were similar for coronavirus deaths. Among the boosted test group the virus claimed 13 lives compared to 172 deaths among those without a bivalent booster dose.
The study also found older people, those with higher education, and a higher income were more likely to get a bivalent booster dose. Uptake was also higher among those who had been previously vaccinated and those who had been infected.
The risk of a severe infection landing someone in a hospital or a graveyard was also higher for those with chronic heart failure, diabetes, pulmonary disease, or who smoked, among other things.
The study in full can be found HERE.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
Soaring gas prices that sparked Europe’s energy crisis resulted in people reducing natural gas use. In Denmark, natural gas usage fell by 29% last year according to preliminary numbers from the Danish Energy Agency. The reduction in fossil fuel use was more than exceeded by renewable energy with wind and solar-driven electricity use covering almost 60% of the supply.
Aalborg University Professor Brian Vad Mathiesen spoke to DR:
“It is extremely positive. A decrease in natural gas consumption, far more renewable energy in the electricity systems, and far lower energy consumption in general, resulting in lower CO2 emissions. When the share of renewable energy has increased to this extent, then we must say that many of the initiatives we have made are succeeding, and this can carry us out of the energy crisis in a way that we can also completely solve it.”
🇩🇪 🇫🇮
Over the weekend Germany turned off its last three nuclear power reactors. This will begin a likely decades-long job to decommission the plants. After the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster in Japan in 2011, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to phase out nuclear power by 2022. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the weaponization of Russian energy exports, and the subsequent energy crisis, those plans were postponed until now.
But while Germany turns its back on nuclear power, Finland is going in the exact opposite direction. Hours after Germany hit the off switch, the largest single nuclear reactor in Europe, the next-generation Olkiluoto 3 in Finland, entered regular power production. Plant operator, TVO, says it expects the facility to remain operational for “at least the next 60 years.”
🇩🇪/ 🇪🇺⚡️
As Germany retires its last three nuclear power plants, Our World in Data is taking a deep dive into the numbers to see how the country stacks up against its Western European neighbours for coal-fired electricity production. Coal-fueled power plants are terrible for the climate and for air quality.
According to Our World in Data, 31% of electricity production comes from coal-fired power plants. No other country in Western Europe is even close.
🇸🇪
There may finally be some relief to soaring food prices that triggered a crisis in Sweden. With lines growing at food banks, an unusual circumstance in the country, Radio Sweden is reporting that three banks, SBAB, Nordea and Swedbank, are forecasting that food prices may plateau and might even go down during the spring. However, the banks warn that any wholesale relief to staggering grocery bills may take some time to materialize.
Surging prices on things like fertilizer, energy, and animal feed sent food prices in Sweden soaring. The situation was such that even the government stepped in and held a meeting with Swedish grocery store companies to try and find solutions.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Norway has expelled 15 Russian intelligence officers from the Russian embassy in Oslo. The 15 officers have been declared personae non gratae and had to leave Norway “shortly” after the designation was issued late last week.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Anniken Huitfeldt:
“The 15 intelligence officers have been engaging in activities that are not compatible with their diplomatic status. This is an important step in countering, and reducing the level of, Russian intelligence activity in Norway, and thus in safeguarding our national interests.
Huitfeldt added that Norway will not be issuing any entry visas to Russian intelligence officers seeking to come to Norway.
“Russia currently poses the greatest intelligence threat to Norway. We take this very seriously and are now implementing measures to counter Russian intelligence activities in our country. We will not allow Russian intelligence officers to operate under diplomatic cover in Norway.”
Norwegian authorities have been monitoring the 15 officers “over time.” The country’s Foreign Affairs Ministry notes that there is an “increasing Russian intelligence threat to Norway as a result of the deteriorating security situation.”
The move to expel the 15 officers comes ahead of Nordic documentary series on Russian intelligence activity to air next week called ‘The Shadow War.’ The documentary is a collaboration between DR, NRK, SVT and Yle, media outlets from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland respectively.
Norway’s NRK has confirmed the identities of four Russian intelligence officers who may be among the 15 who have been expelled, but that hasn’t been confirmed yet. It says all four have diplomatic covers at the Oslo embassy but were actually working for the Russian GRU.
🇩🇰🇩🇪🇳🇱/ 🇺🇦
The first batch of refurbished Leopard tanks promised to Ukraine by Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands will be ready soon. On Saturday, Danish Acting Minister of Defense Troels Lund Poulsen visited Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft in Germany to see firsthand how the work was going.
“We are in the process of refurbishing Leopard 1 tanks. It is a large and important donation to the Ukrainian struggle for freedom, which was made possible with broad support from the other parties in the Folketing and which we hope to be able to send [the tanks] to Ukraine very soon.”
The three countries pledged in early February to work together to refurbish and donate 100 Leopard 1A5 tanks to Ukraine. The first batch of tanks should be ready to join the fight in Ukraine “within the coming weeks.”
The contribution also includes ammunition for the tanks and training for Ukrainian soldiers to learn how to operate them.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Ukrainian troops have finished training in Denmark on how to use CAESAR artillery platforms.
Acting Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“This is a large and very significant donation, which is in great demand by Ukraine. There is no doubt that it is needed and with the end of the training and education course, the Ukrainians can put it to use on the battlefield, where it will make a clear difference.”
Denmark donated all 19 of its new CAESAR artillery platforms to Ukraine earlier this year. Because the weapons were so new the Danish military said there were several technical challenges they had to work with the manufacturer to overcome while training the Ukrainians on how to use them.
With training completed the artillery systems should arrive in Ukraine “in the coming weeks.”
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
The Odense city council has voted to invest municipal funds into weapons production. The vote was 6 to 3 for the idea. Previously, Odense council had prohibited municipal monies from being invested in the production of prohibited weapons, nuclear arms, or tobacco. But nothing is barring the municipality from investing in the production of legal arms.
Odense Mayor, Peter Rahbæk Juel, spoke to TV2 Funen to say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed things.
“The world has changed since Putin invaded Ukraine. It is a different situation that makes it completely appropriate if we can invest in legal weapons production.”
But Det Radikale Venstre Councillor Susanne Crawley has the opposite viewpoint as she voted against the move.
“There is plenty of war in the world, and that has never made Odense Municipality want to invest in weapons. I believe that we should help with humanitarian issues where we can, and then leave it to the government to make the decisions that are about participating in warfare.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Since we last published Finland has officially become the 31st member nation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. With its new member state, the border area between NATO countries and Russia has increased by 1,344 kilometers.
The Finnish Border Guard Service has announced the beginning of construction to build a barrier fence along an initial three-kilometer stretch along the Russian border. The pilot project is being built near the city of Imatra and should be completed by June of this year.
South-East Finland Border Guard District Colonel Mika Rytkönen:
“The barrier fence will not only significantly improve border surveillance in the management of disruptions, but also on a wider scale. The technical surveillance will improve further.”
Phase two will begin later this year adding another 75 kilometers of fencing. The barrier will extend across 200 kilometers of the Russian border by 2026. This equals roughly 15% of the border area between Finland and Russia.
🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺 🇧🇾
The Baltic states, who vividly remember the horrors of Russian occupation, continue to draw a hard line over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Lithuania’s parliament has ruled that Russian citizens, with a few exceptions, will be barred from buying property in Lithuania beginning in 2024. Russians who reside in Lithuania and those with a Lithuanian residency permit are exempt. Lithuania cited a threat to national security for the move.
Lithuania has also stopped issuing new visas to Russian and Belarusian citizens. Anyone from the two countries already holding documentation will be screened at border checkpoints to assess if they pose a threat to Lithuanian security when they arrive in the Baltic state.
🇺🇸/ 🇷🇺
The United States has sanctioned more than 120 people and companies accused of helping Russia skirt sanctions to fund its war in Ukraine. Among them is the private Russian militia group Patriot, operated by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Four companies in Turkey are also on the sanctions list for having sold satellite intelligence photos of Ukraine to entities linked to the Wagner Russian militia group, which is heavily involved in fighting in Ukraine.
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦
Canada is sending guns and ammunition, and lots of both, to Ukraine. The Canadian government says it will send 21,000 assault rifles, 38 machine guns, and over two-million rounds of ammunition to Ukrainian armed forces. The weapons package will cost about $59 million but won’t arrive for a few months.