Monday Morning News & Notes
Denmark’s declining epidemic. Canada sends Ukraine more weapons.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
For the first time since the pandemic began more than two years ago, the COVID risk level is at the lowest level of 1 across all of Denmark. That is according to Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke. Denmark has a five-tier risk assessment system, with five being the highest alert infection alert level.
Heunicke credits this to a declining epidemic, falling hospitalization numbers, and a the ‘seasonal effect’ as the weather warms up and more people are outside where the virus has a harder time spreading.
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Almost 70% of people in Denmark between the ages of 17 to 72 years old have had a coronavirus infection since the Omicron variant arrived in November of 2021. That is according to the latest, and last, study of people who donated blood. Denmark’s Statens Serum Institute has been working with the Danish Blood Bank to analyze blood donations to try and determine the COVID ‘dark figure.’ That is the true number of infections, both those caught and confirmed via COVID testing and those who had mild or no symptoms who never took a test.
The SSI has been testing blood donations every two weeks since the beginning of the year. The first round of testing determined 14% of adults in Denmark would have been infected between November and the first week of January. The latest, and last, round of testing covered up until March 15, and found 68% of adults had been infected, a six-point increase from the previous two week period.
SSI Director Henrik Ullum:
"COVID-wise, Denmark is therefore in a good place right now, where the vaccines and the many coronavirus infections have created solid immunity in the population.”
Breaking the results down by region, the population in North Jutland had the highest COVID saturation with 74% of the population having had an infection. The lowest rates were seen in Region Sjælland with 61% infected.
By age, there is a big difference between the youngest population, those 17 to 45 years old, who had the highest proportion of infections with 75%. While the older population, those 46 to 72 years old, had the lowest share at 59%.
Now that the blood testing program has come to an end, Henrik Ullum is happy with the knowledge gained.
“It has proven to be a very useful tool for following the epidemic. Especially when the test strategy has changed along the way with the fear that fewer people would be tested. We have already in the measurement from week 9, three weeks after the wave peaked in week 3, been able to come up with a fairly accurate estimate of how many have been infected during the Omicron wave.”
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COVID hospitalizations (466) dropped by 32 in Saturday’s report and then rose slightly by seven on Sunday to end the weekend still steadily heading downward and is now well below the 539 hospitalizations reported last Thursday. The number of severe infections in an ICU (8) rose slightly day over day (+2) and of those, the numbers on a ventilator (2) are unchanged. Infection admissions to a psychiatric ward (143) inched downward (-2).
Over the last seven days, the bulk of all COVID hospital admissions have been among seniors 65 years old and older.
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Denmark reported 1,494 COVID infections over the weekend while suffering another 12 coronavirus deaths.
With 5,685 PCR tests taken on Saturday the positivity percentage equals 10.11%.
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On the vaccination front, it continues to be a game of very little movement. To date, 82.1% of the total population have one vaccine dose, 80.6% have two, and 61.6% have a booster dose. These numbers have changed very little in the last few months.
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It could be just the tip of the iceberg as the Danish Statens Serum Institute junks 1.1 million doses of the Moderna COVID vaccine as demand tanks and the vials reach their best before date. Denmark’s TV2 is reporting that millions more vaccine doses could soon also go into the garbage. According to an inventory of vaccine doses from the Statens Serum Institute given to TV2, the agency has more than eight million vaccine doses in stock. Of those, nearly five million have expiration dates looming over the summer months and are at risk of also being thrown out.
When the SSI announced it was junking the 1.1 million Moderna doses, it said that every effort had been made to donate the doses to developing countries to no avail. Professor of Health Economics at the University of Southern Denmark, Jes Søgaard, spoke to TV2 and said that he can’t see anything changing between now and the summer.
“I can’t see any other scenario ahead other than that those doses will have to be destroyed.”
TV2 estimates that Denmark would have paid somewhere between 100 to 675 million kroner for the nearly five million vaccine doses, or $18 to $118 million dollars Canadian. The Ministry of Health wouldn’t provide the station with the cost of the doses.
🇸🇪
The herd immunity that Sweden’s former state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell once touted is now a pipe dream, according to at least one expert. Joakim Dillner is a professor of infection epidemiology at Sweden’s Karolinska Institute and he thinks we can forget about herd immunity largely because of the hyper-contagious BA.2 variant and its ability to slip by the defenses of the immune system.
Dillner spoke with Sweden’s SVT:
“We have a new subtype that we are not even protected against if we have already had an infection. This is a really deceptive virus.”
As for her immunity.
“I'm sorry, but I actually think we can forget about it.”
However, another expert thinks right now we have battled coronavirus into an uneasy stalemate due largely to the seasonal effect.
Stockholm University Professor of Mathematical Statistics Tom Britton, who is studying the infection spread, notes the COVID R0 is hovering around 1, which means the epidemic is neither increasing nor decreasing.
“This means that the immunity of the population is high enough for the spread of infection not to pick up speed.”
🇳🇴
Norway has added 641 infections (underreported) and reported no new corona deaths since its update on Thursday of last week.
So far, 80.4% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 74.8% have two, and 54.4% have a booster dose.
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The Omicron-fueled COVID wave in Norway is receding as influenza cases erupt. That is according to the latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
It says new COVID hospital admissions have been on a steady decline for eight weeks and counting. In the last week of April, there were 74 new hospitalizations, down from the 137 in the week before. Intensive care admissions are also dropping, with nine new patients in an ICU in the same week, eight fewer than the week prior. Seniors 75 years old and older make up the largest segment of new COVID patients.
Ever since the end of February, the NIPH says, pandemic-related visits to an emergency room or a doctor’s office have been declining.
COVID deaths on the other hand, increased slightly week to week, with 59 fatalities in week 17, which is six more than the week previous. The NIPH adds that it expects the number of deaths in that week to be adjusted upward. The median age of those who died due to a COVID infection in week 17 was 84 years old. 58% of the deaths occurred in a healthcare institution, be it a hospital or a care home.
The health agency says the number of PCR tests being administered continues to plummet, with most of the testing now being among elderly people 80 years old and older. This explains why infection numbers are no longer even mentioned in weekly assessments.
Like everywhere else in Europe, the Omicron variant is king in Norway, with the BA.2 strain accounting for 95 to 100% of all sequenced positive test results. The NIPH does add that other variants of interest have been detected including one case of BA.5.
As for what lies ahead, the health agency is assessing that the COVID wave will continue to ebb, but the pace of its decline will likely slow.
But, while coronavirus numbers drop it is the opposite story for influenza numbers, with the NIPH saying that a late resurgence of the seasonal flu “is still erupting in Norway.” But the agency notes the influenza wave may have peaked with a positivity percentage of 17% dropping to 12% from one week to the next.
Influenza is also now edging out coronavirus when it comes to hospitalizations, with 24% of all respiratory infection-related hospital admissions being the seasonal flu compared to COVID’s 21%.
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The Norwegian Institute for Public Health says it has confirmed four cases of the mystery hepatitis that is impacting children under the age of ten. The agency says the four cases come from different parts of the country, covering a period from February to April this year. It says in all cases the children either no longer require hospital care or are in recovery.
Chief Physician Margrethe Greve-Isdahl says the most recent two cases were “a while ago.” She also notes that there is the possibility the number of confirmed cases could increase as the agency does a detailed investigation including all similar cases going back to October of last year.
“The most important thing is to have increased vigilance for the condition. Parents who are concerned about their sick child should contact the health service; GPs must, as before, refer sick children for examination in hospital when necessary; and pediatricians who examine children who fit the description of the disease, must report suspected cases to the NIPH.”
Greve-Isdahl says the hearth agency has briefed Norwegian Pediatric groups.
The health agency reiterates that the cause remains a mystery. The NIPH says, like other health agencies, that many of the inflicted children have been diagnosed with adenovirus while others have had a COVID infection. However, while the source of the hepatitis remains a mystery, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health has ruled out one cause, coronavirus vaccines. It says there is no evidence to suggest vaccines may be to blame as many of the children who have become ill have been unvaccinated.
“Adenovirus is a common virus that can cause both respiratory and communicable diseases with vomiting and diarrhea. It very rarely causes serious illness. It is also important to emphasize that it is currently uncertain whether adenovirus or coronavirus have a role in the development of the disease in the reported cases.”
The mystery hepatitis outbreak began in Scotland but has since spread around the globe, although the overall number of cases remains quite small. As of April 28, there were 55 cases in the European Union and broader European Economic Area.
Severe hepatitis is rare in children, and is characterized by the development of jaundice, with yellowing of the skin and eyes. Before admission, some of the children diagnosed in the United Kingdom had abdominal pain, loose stools and vomiting.
🇪🇺🦠
The Omicron-driven COVID infection wave continues to recede across Europe, with the exception of a small number of countries. The latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control finds that overall infections and case notification rates are declining among seniors 65 years old and older. However, the agency notes, that while declining the infection rate remains high among seniors. Just three countries reported rising COVID case numbers among their elderly population.
Of the 27 EU counties reporting data on hospital and intensive care admissions, numbers were dropping in all but three nations, which are seeing admissions heading in the wrong direction.
The 14 day coronavirus death rate per million population has dropped for a third straight week going from 21.7 to 18.3 from week to week. Ireland registered an increasing number of pandemic deaths.
The ECDC is forecasting that the number of infections, hospitalizations, and pandemic fatalities will continue to ebb across the EU over the next two weeks. Although it adds with vastly reduced testing, any infection numbers forecast “should be treated with caution.”
Across Europe, the cumulative vaccination uptake for having two vaccine doseswas 72.6% of the total population, and for having two doses and a booster it was 51.6%.
On the variant front, Omicron remains king in Europe, specifically the BA.2 strain, which accounted for 97.2% of all sequenced positive test results. BA.1 registered in 0.3% of cases; BA.3 was 0.2%, and BA.4 0.1%.
🇪🇺💉
There is a lot of news from Europe’s pharmaceutical watchdog group. The European Medical Association is also raising the alarm about vaccination rates in the EU. It says with just 50% of people in the European Union having two doses and a booster and 15% of people 18 years old and older without a single vaccine dose, that it poses a serious concern.
“People who are not yet vaccinated or boosted should get their shots, especially if they are at a higher risk of severe disease.”
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The European Medicines Association says it is still too early to authorize a 2nd booster dose of the mRNA COVID vaccines across the general population the agency says at the moment, elderly seniors 80 years old and older are the priority group to get a 4th shot.
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The EMA has also begun evaluating an application from AstraZeneca for a booster dose of its vaccine for people 18 years old and older.
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The agency confirmed it has also received an application from Moderna for use of its COVID vaccine on children 6 months old and older. The EMA says “this is the first application for this young age group.” It has begun evaluating the application.
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The EMA really has its hands full right now as it is also assessing data to decide whether to give a recommendation, or not, to extend use of the Nuvaxovid COVID vaccine to adolescents 12 to 17 years old.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau paid a surprise visit to Ukraine on Sunday. Trudeau met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, toured Irpin to see firsthand some of the damages Russia has inflicted on the country, and he also raised the flag at the Canadian embassy in Kyiv, officially resuming Canada’s diplomatic presence in Ukraine’s capital.
In a press conference alongside Zelenskyy, Trudeau announced even more help is coming from Canada. It includes $50 million in military assistance, which includes 18 drone cameras; $15 million in high resolution satellite imagery; $1 million in small arms and related ammunition, and even more ammunition for Canadian M777 howitzers already donated to the Ukraine war effort. Canada will also contribute another $40 million for humanitarian and human rights aid to Ukraine. Not done there, Trudeau announced all trade tariffs would be temporarily removed on Ukrainian goods for one-year.
The Prime Minister also added even more sanctions on to the growing pile Russia is already facing. Another 21 Russians, oligarchs and Putin allies, have been added to a list of people facing personal sanctions. And 19 Russians working in the Russian military have also been sanctioned.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau:
“As Russia continues its ongoing illegal and unjustifiable war against Ukraine, Canada will continue to be there to support Ukraine and its people. I would like to thank President Zelenskyy for hosting this visit, but also, more importantly, for his leadership. Together with Ukrainians, President Zelenskyy is defending the values at the very heart of democracies. His courage and the courage of Ukrainians is inspiring, and we will continue to do everything we can to make sure Ukraine gets the support it needs.”
🇩🇰 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 🇧🇪 🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
As Europe looks to end its energy reliance on Russia, Denmark will host an important meeting on alternative energy options, namely Denmark’s highly touted wind energy system. On Wednesday, Danish Statsminister Mette Frederiksen will host European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, and the Prime Minister of Belgium Alexander De Croo for a European summit on offshore wind energy. The summit will take place in Esbjerg, Denmark.
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
In Southern Sweden, Region Skåne has begun offering Ukrainian refugees free vaccinations against a number of infectious diseases including measles, mumps, and rubella.
Assistant Infection Control Doctor Per Hagstam:
“The issue of vaccination against measles has been raised because we now have a situation where large groups of people are coming at the same time. Then there is a risk of spreading diseases that are easy to prevent through vaccination.”
The vaccination offer is for adult Ukrainians because Sweden already offers access to vaccinations for children under the age of 18 who have recently arrived in the country
Regional Councilor, and Health Chair, Gilbert Tribo:
“Measles is a life-threatening disease that kills many people around the world. In other countries, there is not a high degree of coverage and therefore we in Region Skåne want to act to ensure that more new arrivals are vaccinated.”
Nearby, Denmark has also launched a vaccination program aimed at Ukrainian refugees. Vaccination rates in Ukraine tend to be very low, which has sparked concern of the refugee wave fleeing the war-torn country bringing infectious diseases with them.
🇺🇸/G7/ 🇷🇺
United States President Joe Biden says Russia will face even more sanctions. In a video conference with the leaders of other G7 countries, Biden said, that Russia will be banned from using the services of American accountants or other business service entities. Sanctions will also be levied by the States on the sale of any equipment or technology from the U.S, including commercial time, to Russian state-owned television stations.
The leaders of the G7 also added in a joint statement after their meeting that all efforts will continue to sever energy reliance on Russia. The G7 is a forum comprised of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. Russia was admitted in 1997, making it the G8 until it was booted out in 2014 over its occupation of the Crimean peninsula.