Monday Morning News & Notes
Russia probes European airspace. Norway’s COVID wave in retreat.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇰🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
On Friday night, a Russian plane violated both Danish and Swedish air space as fighter jets from both countries scrambled to intercept it. According to the Swedish military it was a Russian Air Force AN-30. According to a press release from the Swedish Armed Forces, the incident happened east of the Danish island of Bornholm.
Swedish Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström:
“I think it is irresponsible and unprofessional. We followed this whole incident long before and had started incident preparedness because they were approaching Swedish territory. When it approached Swedish territory, they followed along the border, and that was when they for a short period violated Swedish airspace.”
Edström says the whole incident took less than a minute.
Sweden’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Ann Linde:
“It is unacceptable of Russia to violate Swedish airspace. Swedish territorial integrity should always be respected.”
For its part, the Danish military said F-16s from Denmark also joined the intercept and “rejection” mission on Friday.
Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeppe Kofod tweeted on Sunday that the Russian ambassador to Denmark will be called on to the carpet today by the Danish government over the violation of Danish air space.
Kofod said of the incident:
“That is completely unacceptable and extremely worrying in the current situation.”
This is, of course, happening as Sweden, along with Finland, mulls joining NATO.
Swedish Air Force Chief Carl-Johan Edström:
“There is no direct threat today of an armed attack, but we can also not rule out in the future that it may happen. As there is a discussion about an NATO accession or not, there is a risk that Russia will step up its activities in our immediate area as well.”
This is not the first time Russia Air Force planes have, deliberately or not, violated Nordic air space or the air space across the broader European Union.
On Friday, NATO Air Command revealed that fighter jets from the Baltic and Black seas have scrambled “multiple times” from Poland, Denmark, France, Romania, and Spain to track and intercept Russian aircraft since April 26.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ NATO
Citing sources, Finnish media outlet Iltalehti, is reporting that Finland will apply for NATO membership on May 12.
It reports that the move will be led by Finland’s President Sauli Niinistö as the decision processes in two phases with the President voicing his support, which then could be followed by parliamentary approval.
IL is also reporting that Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has signed off on the move.
If the news outlet is correct, it apparently won’t come as a surprise to Sweden. Foreign Affairs Minister Ann Linde spoke to SVT about whether Finland will apply to join NATO.
“I think you can say that for sure. We had the Finnish Foreign Affairs Committee in Sweden last week, and it was unequivocal also from my own party that has not yet taken a position. Their representatives also said that this would be the case.”
Sweden and Finland, who are closely allied, have been communicating with each other about joining NATO, with politicians in Finland expressing the hope that Sweden will make a similar decision at roughly the same time. The Swedish government is set to see a report on its security situation on May 13. The following day both the Swedish and Finnish Foreign Affairs ministers were invited to join their NATO colleagues in a meeting.
On that note, Sweden’s Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, said in a speech to party members that joining NATO would give the country “a special responsibility” for security in the Baltic Sea.
“If Sweden is attacked then we have better opportunities to get support from other countries, but you also get security guarantees.”
She added that if Finland forged ahead and joins NATO, it would have an impact on Sweden.
“Sweden will be more vulnerable if we do not also become members.”
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address Danes live via direct live-stream this Wednesday evening. His address comes on the day (May 4) that Denmark celebrates its freedom from Nazi occupation during World War II. People are asked to come and light a candle to show solidarity with Ukraine at Rådhuspladsen in Copenhagen.
The event begins at 8:50pm local time and includes speeches from Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and others before Zelensky begins his address on a big screen at 9:17pm. His speech will be immediately followed by a one minute of silence to remember the victims of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs is now confirming that a Danish citizen may have died fighting against Russia in Ukraine. The ministry told DR that they have been in touch with the man’s family who are convinced he has been killed. In an email to DR, it says the family does not want his name or picture published, nor do they want to be contacted by journalists. DR reports the young man is 25 years old and based on his social media accounts it appears he was a former soldier.
It is estimated that up to 100 Danes have gone to Ukraine to fight against Russia in its invasion of the country
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺
Sweden is strengthening its military presence on the strategically important Baltic island of Gotland. On Friday, the Swedish government pledged 1.6 billion Swedish kroner ($163 million U.S.) to the task of further adding to the islands fortifications and defenses.
Sweden has been steadily reinforcing the island, the country’s largest, since Russia seized the Crimean peninsula. Since the recent invasion of Ukraine, Sweden has put even more emphasis on fortifying Gotland.
In NATO war games, which ever country is role-playing Russia, it has always seized the island as a first step towards controlling the Baltic Sea.
🇳🇴/ 🇷🇺
Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced over the weekend that as of Saturday, May 7, it will ban all Russian freight trucks and ships at its land and sea crossings and ports.
Foreign Minister Anniken Huitfeldt says this moves Norway in alignment with European Union sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
“We know that sanctions work best when several countries agree on them. With this, we are implementing the EU’s fifth and final sanctions package, and we have received good Norwegian regulations to do so.”
He says the ban includes all Russian-flagged vessels, commercial ships, yachts, pleasure craft, and recreational vessels.
Minister of Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Bjørnar Skjæran says the ban exempts fishing vessels, rescue, and research ships.
“A ban on port calls for Russian vessels and a ban on road transport for Russian transport companies could mean consequences for the flow of goods between Norway and Russia and for individual actors in the business community.”
Norway has also imposed restrictions pm importing Russian coal and jet fuel. Banned support for Russian public bodies and state-owned or controlled entities, this includes media companies, among other sanctions aimed at Russian goods, services, natural resources, and banks.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
In Denmark hospitalizations (601) increased (+18) on Sunday after dropping (-63) on Saturday. The number of severe infection cases in an ICU (9) edged downward (-3) and of those the number on a ventilator (2) was unchanged day to day. COVID admissions to a psychiatric ward (185) crept downward (-3).
As you can see over the last seven days, while COVID hospitalizations increase by age from those 40 years old and older, it is seniors 65 years old and older who are seeing by far the most infection-related hospital admissions.
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Denmark added 1,605 COVID infections over the weekend (underreported), including 138 reinfections, and 21 more coronavirus deaths.
With 671 total infections reported on Sunday with 6,444 PCR COVID tests registered on Saturday the positivity percentage equals 10.41%.
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On the COVID vaccination front, there were a mere 128 booster doses administered on Saturday as we inch closer to Denmark pressing pause on its national vaccination campaign. As of May 16, vaccination invitations and reminder letters will no longer be sent out, but vaccination sites will remain open and people can still get vaccinated.
To date, 82.1% of the total population has one vaccine dose, 80.7% have two, and 61.6% have a booster dose. These numbers haven’t moved by much in many weeks.
🇳🇴
Norway added 852 infections since Thursday’s update while reporting no new COVID deaths.
The Norwegian Institute of Public Health I longer reports daily coronavirus related hospitalization numbers. It does report weekly infection admissions, of which there have been 137 in the last seven days. That is 19 fewer than what was seen the week before.
To date, 80.4% of Norwegians 12 years old and older have one vaccine dose, 74.8% have two, and 54.3% have a booster dose.
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The latest COVID wave and a very late influenza resurgence are both rapidly declining across Norway, according to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
In its latest risk assessment for both the pandemic and the seasonal flu, the NIPH says “winter COVID wave is over” with numbers dwindling rapidly. COVID hospitalizations peaked in week 9 with 545 admissions, a number it says has fallen to 137 as of week 16. ICU admissions have dropped from 58 to 16 in the same time period. While pandemic deaths have decreased from 197 in week 11 to 44 in week 16. The agency expects the infection curve to “flatten out” likely by later this month.
While it says the retreating infection wave is good news, the NIPH cautions that the pandemic remains unpredictable, and it expects COVID to return in force this fall and winter as the seasonal effect turns against us again. It also warns that if a new threatening variant emerges it could mean the virus could return quickly much sooner than that. The agency advises close monitoring of virus activity, with health agencies prepared to suddenly shift gears if the situation changes.
“The population must be prepared for the fact that the epidemic may return even more strongly, and that in certain situations it may be relevant to change how we handle it. The municipalities must be prepared for stepping up pandemic responses, including increasing testing, infection detection, and vaccination. It is likely that a fourth dose of the vaccine will be offered to at least the elderly and other risk groups by autumn.”
As for the late influenza wave, the NIPH says it too has peaked and is now rapidly ebbing. Flu-related hospitalizations have gone from 374 to 237 from one week to the next. So far this year, it says, a resurgent influenza outbreak has resulted in 1,610 total hospitalizations, ten of which ended up in an ICU. The agency says it has seen the H3N2 influenza A strain (the Bangladeshi variant) the most this year. This was a problem as the flu shot was designed for a different flu strain. The health agency cautions that there could still be a lot of flu cases to come this month before the wave eases entirely. It says this could still lead to many hospitalizations, with seniors and vulnerable populations most at risk.
“Municipalities must be prepared to deal with influenza outbreaks in nursing homes. Hospitals must be prepared for the admission of patients with influenza.”
🇫🇮
Finland does not update its COVID statistics on weekends. It has moved to a once-a-week pandemic update model, with numbers reported every Thursday.
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Finnish health officials, especially those in the populace Helsinki and Uusimaa districts, are bracing for May Day coronavirus outbreaks. With large groups of people gathering in the traditional first of May activities officials are worried the virus could spread. That said, health authorities in Finland did not issue any specific guidelines or restrictions for May Day events this year.
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Healthcare visits jumped dramatically in Finland last year largely due to the pandemic, according to the Finnish Institute for Health. The agency says in 2021 total healthcare visits jumped by 32% while visits involving care by nurses rocketed up by 60%. The health agency says COVID vaccinations were largely behind the rising numbers.
While 96% of the population used healthcare services last year, visits for oral health, mostly to dentists, rose by a modest 8.9% year over year but the institute says even then, numbers remain well below pre-pandemic rates. Visits to a dentist or for other oral health treatment fell by 21% from 2019 to the first year of the pandemic in 2020.
🇪🇺🦠
The Omicron-driven infection wave seems to be easing across Europe, according to the latest pandemic assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It says as of week 16, the week ending April 24, overall infection activity was falling in most EU countries. It says overall COVID cases and infections among seniors 65 years old and older are both down. Again, a caution flag on these numbers as testing rates across Europe plummet. The ECDC does say that while decreasing infection activity among seniors “is still high” and in two European countries it has been increasing.
As you can see by the number of ‘greyed out’ European countries testing across Europe has reached a point where determining any substantive understanding of the pandemic situation from infection numbers has become impossible.
Of the 29 countries reporting hospital and intensive care admissions data, the agency says four reported rising numbers in one or both categories.
The 14-day COVID death rate has been decreasing across Europe for two consecutive weeks now. It was 19.2 deaths per million population in week 16, compared to 23.7 the previous week. Thankfully, no countries in the EU have reported an increasing pandemic death rate in the latest weekly snapshot.
Across Europe, 72.6% of the total population have had two doses of a COVID vaccine and 53.2% have had two doses and a booster shot.
Omicron remains king in Europe, accounting for 100% of all sequenced positive test results. Among the Omicron sub-variants, BA.2 accounted for 95.5%. While one of the new Omicron strains to rear its head, BA.4 made up 0.2% of all sequenced positive test results.
WHO🌏🦠
The World Health Organization continues to warn that the pandemic is not over as much as we want it to be.
WHO COVID lead, and infectious disease epidemiologist, Maria van Kerkhove says vaccination inequality is still a major problem around the world.
“At a global level, we are still very much in the middle of this pandemic. We’re still dealing with this pandemic virus, but countries are at very different stages of where they are in dealing with this virus. The reason that they are at different stages is because they have different access to tools. Population level immunity is increasing around the world and it is really quite high because of vaccination rates that are increasing around the world. However, the vaccination rates are not reaching the same levels in all countries because we don’t have vaccines in all counties and, in particular, vaccination amongst those who are most at risk: people over the age of 60, people with underlying conditions, our frontline workers. On the positive side, many countries are seeing a significant decline in hospitalizations and mortality. And that is what we want to see. That is a very positive sign that these tools that we have at working. On the other hand, other countries don’t see the same level of impact because again, they don’t have those vaccines. So, while some countries may be in a different phase where the emergency that they are dealing with is not at that same level of intensity, we are definitely not seeing that across all countries.”
Kerkhove says it is now about managing COVID.
“And so, for us, what is really important is that we find ways to balance the response of dealing with the virus while keeping people alive and getting their livelihoods back on track. So, it is a difficult message because everyone wants to hear that the pandemic is over. We do, as well. None of us want to be talking about the pandemic or this virus anymore. We want to be in a situation where we can manage COVID, and what I mean by managing COVID is that it is a disease that doesn’t kill like it is killing right now. But the virus is still evolving and the virus is changing. And so, all countries have to be agile and ready to deal with what may come next.”
🇨🇦
While infection numbers were down in Canada hospitalizations are on the rise and COVID deaths have increased dramatically. That is according to the latest weekly assessment from the Public Health Agency of Canada.
The agency says in week 16 it recorded 307 pandemic deaths, a 57% increase from the number of fatalities seen the week before.
As for COVID hospitalizations, there were 3,875 people with an infection in hospital in week 16, a 17% increase from week to week. The number of people with infections severe enough to require intensive care treatment rose by 14% with 304 ICU beds in use.
PHAC says there were 5,388 new infections confirmed in week 16, an 8% decrease from the week previous. But PHAC also notes that due to a lack of testing, that number “should be interpreted with caution.” In Canada’s two most populace provinces cases increased by 11% in Quebec, while they fell by 19% in Ontario; again keeping in mind numbers are likely very underreported in both cases. The two provinces accounted for 97.2% of all COVID cases reported in week 16.
The public health agency also sounds a note of concern noting that infection activity is increasing again in senior care homes, assisted living facilities, and other care settings.
The weekly positivity percentage for week 16 across Canada was 17.2%, which is down from the previous week.
On the variant front, Omicron accounted for 90% of all sequenced positive tests in the latest weekly snapshot. PHAC says 7% of cases had variants “of an undetermined lineage.” Again, factor in the low testing numbers and even lower sequencing rates.
It is worth noting that with the advent of the hyper-contagious Omicron wave, COVID incidence rates increased sharply in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. But since January, the incidence rate among those with all their vaccine doses has decreased to a much lower rate than for those who are unvaccinated. Hospitalizations also continue to be higher for people without the protection offered by vaccines.
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Taking a closer look at Ontario, COVID hospitalizations (1,410) are down since Friday (-266) with the caveat, that a number of hospitals in the province don’t report infection admissions on weekends. ICU numbers (187) also dropped, but not by much (-22). The province reported 2,243 infections on Sunday (underreported) and 17 more pandemic deaths as the total to-date number of COVID fatalities reaches 12,842. The positivity percentage was 14.7%, which is increasing.