Monday Morning News & Notes
Climate change costs. Europe continues to prepare for war.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🇩🇰
More evidence the future is not looking promising for gas and diesel vehicles in Denmark. The number of fossil fuel vehicles continues to decline with 2023 ending with 105,000 fewer gas, diesel, and even plug-in hybrid vehicles on the road. Conversely, the were 152,000 more fully electric vehicles.
According to Dansk e-Mobilitet the sale of fossil fuel vehicles in Denmark looks to have peaked in 2021 with numbers declining ever since.
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A Danish company specializing in providing circular packaging to the food industry is making a change to save energy and increase recycling. Færch is doing away with black plastic trays used for meat in supermarkets and replacing them with clear plastic ones. It says there are two benefits, one is it takes a lot less energy to make the clear container, and two, infrared sorting machines at Danish waste sorting facilities can’t detect black plastic meaning it never gets recycled.
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Some Danish municipalities are learning first-hand about the costs of climate change and how it is pushing budgets to the breaking point. Some of the areas of Denmark hit the hardest by flooding in last October’s historic storm surge are still waiting for flood damages to be repaired. The Danish government created a 125 million Danish kroner fund that municipalities can access but it only covers a maximum of 25% of repair costs. For some that has not nearly been enough.
On the island of Kegnæs in Southern Jutland what was formerly a two-lane road connecting it to the mainland is now a single lane after the flood waters washed the rest of the road away. It has been over three months now and no effort has been made to rebuild it. Why? Because the work would cost an estimated 50 million kroner (about $9.7 million Cdn) in a municipality that suffered over 80 million kroner in flood damages. Sønderborg and other impacted kommunes are looking at their budgets and wondering without serious cuts where is the money going to come from?
It is not just the cost of repairs, Kegnæs relies on tourism and with some big Danish holiday periods looming, and the lucrative summer months creeping closer, fears are building the heavily damaged roadway will impact resident’s livelihoods.
🇳🇴
Norway has seen an unusually large amount of snowfall this winter and now avalanche alerts have been issued.
The Norwegian Red Cross:
“The Red Cross asks skiers and hikers to follow the avalanche warnings and be careful. Significant avalanche danger has been announced in several places in the country. It is rare that we see such a significant and high risk of avalanches in large parts of the country at the same time.”
The avalanche alert covers nearly all of the country’s major ski areas across Southern Norway. Over the weekend an avalanche in the popular skiing area of Hemsedal claimed a life. Three men were caught in the slide with the other two escaping without injuries.
🇪🇸
While it pours in Denmark and Norway digs out from under an epic snowfall, Spain is seeing abnormally high temperatures. The country has seen an unusual heat wave for this time of year with temperatures around 30 degrees. This is easily ten degrees hotter than what Spain is used to seeing in January. Some Spanish cities have recorded the highest January temperatures in decades.
🇪🇺
Europe’s solar panel manufacturers are “on the brink” as they face mounting pressure from a flood of cheaper Chinese options. A number of European factories have either closed their doors or are threatening to soon. The Financial Times is reporting that like Europe’s beleaguered wind energy industry the EU is now mulling emergency support for the solar energy sector. The rescue package is being pulled together as the EU prepares to announce its plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions sometime next month. Whatever that plan is it will almost certainly lean heavily on renewable energy production like wind and solar.
The European solar manufacturing sector says that China is flooding markets with cheaper Chinese products driving prices down and causing a global overcapacity. That means that European manufacturers are suffering unsustainable losses.
As the bard put it, the rub is in what measures the EU comes up with to try to level the playing field. Any direct measures aimed at the import of Chinese products could trigger a trade war. The EU applied antidumping measures against Chinese solar cells in 2013 only to lift them five years later.
The EU is in a bit of a bind as European manufacturers produce less than 3% of the solar panels needed for the bloc to hit its green energy targets for 2030 and beyond.
Back in October, the European Commission tabled a wind power package to try and cut red tape and provide financial guarantees for the struggling wind turbine industry. The aid package was in response in part to European wind energy developers being undercut by cheaper Chinese imports.
🇫🇮 🇪🇪
There was a fault in an electric cable running between Estonia and Finland over the weekend. The fault was determined to be in a section of the cable lying along the Baltic Sea floor near the Estonian coast. But Finland’s power grid operator FinGrid says that based on the information it had gathered as of Sunday it is looking like a legitimate technical fault and not sabotage.
The electricity transmission cable has been offline since the fault was detected on Friday. While they have narrowed it down to a certain section of cable the precise fault point hasn’t been determined yet. The power company is estimating at this point that repairs could take until the end of February but lack the needed information to be any more specific.
Both Finland and Estonia are a little sensitive about their underwater infrastructure after a Chinese freighter dragging an anchor tore open a gas pipeline and damaged two nearby data cables last year. The investigation in all three cases continues.
Chinese vessels have used that same tactic to damage Taiwanese undersea infrastructure.
🇸🇪
A cascade of woes from the energy crisis to surging inflation and soaring food prices has resulted in an unusual problem for Sweden, a cost of living crisis. The Swedish Red Cross reports there is an increasing number of people across the country seeking help from aid groups in order to eat and clothe themselves. The organization reached out to 200 groups on the front lines across the country’s 83 municipalities in order to get a sense of the situation. The results were not rosy. More and more people in Sweden are struggling with even families using aid agencies because they can no longer afford the basics. The Red Cross notes another indication of the growing crisis, the number of aid organizations in Sweden distributing food and other basics to those in need has quadrupled in the last few years.
🇫🇷
After weeks of angry protests by farmers across France, the national government threw in the towel and declared it will now “prioritize agriculture above everything else". French farmers are upset about working and economic conditions, including rules and requirements from the European Union on agricultural emissions and other climate concerns.
Farmers have been carrying out tractor protests by blocking main roads and highways along with dumping manure in front of the offices of politicians.
🇮🇹 🇶🇦
Italy has become the first European country to have its energy security impacted by Houthi rebel’s constant missile attacks on freighters traversing the Red Sea. The route from the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal is the shortest marine link between Europe and the Gulf countries and beyond to Asian markets. But Houthi attacks have forced more and more of that shipping to take the long detour around the Cape of Good Hope in Southern Africa at great expense. Apparently too much time and expense for Qatar’s massive Adriatic LNG terminal, which has canceled all scheduled LNG tanker travel to Italy for the next few weeks.
Italy, like the rest of the EU, has been working overtime to shift away from Russian oil and gas and in doing so has become more and more reliant on LNG. The Italian government has set a goal of increasing LNG to reach 50% of all gas imports by 2030. Italy had been banking on its proximity to the Red Sea shipping lanes, and the LNG tankers that ply those waters, to make itself an energy hub for the rest of Europe, until the Houthis threw a giant rocket-powered monkeywrench into those plans.
It remains to be seen how the near-constant attacks waged by the Houthis will play out, but in the meantime, the impacts could be extensive. Crippling a mega-marine highway and all the goods, LNG, and everything else those ships carry could drive up energy prices and global inflation.
🦠COVID🦠
🌎 🦠
A new study led by WHO/Europe has found that COVID vaccines saved at least 1.4 million lives in the European Region alone during the pandemic. The study, carried out in 34 countries, found that more than 90% of those lives saved were vulnerable people over 60. Overall, the study concluded that since COVID vaccines were introduced in December of 2020, inoculations have reduced the virus death toll by 57% across the region.
WHO Europe Regional Director Hans Kluge:
“In fact, the first booster doses alone saved an estimated 700,000 lives. Just think about it: today, there are 1.4 million people in our region, most of them elderly, who are around to enjoy life with their loved ones because they took the vital decision to be vaccinated against COVID. This is the power of vaccines. The evidence is irrefutable.”
The WHO continues to recommend those at highest risk continue to get COVID booster shots six to twelve months after their last dose. Those at risk include seniors, pregnant women, healthcare workers, people who are immunocompromised, and those struggling with serious chronic conditions.
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WHO Europe says coronavirus activity remains elevated across the region but seems to be decreasing.
Kluge says the JN.1 variant is now dominant accounting for 79% of what few positive tests are being done and then sequenced.
“Many countries have reduced or stopped reporting on COVID to WHO. I cannot stress enough how important continued COVID surveillance is, alongside other circulating respiratory viruses. Thirteen countries in our region did not report any data on respiratory viruses last week. Surveillance remains our first line of defense to monitor unpredictable respiratory pathogens, be it mutations or new viruses.”
However, influenza infections are doing the exact opposite as the flu explodes across Europe. The health agency says that 75% of the countries reporting across the region are experiencing increasing levels of flu activity.
WHO Europe Regional Director Hans Kluge:
“We are seeing a high intensity of influenza infections in several countries across the Region. Health systems should be ready to see a likely surge in influenza cases over the coming weeks. Across the Region, the past 2 weeks have seen a 58% increase in reported hospitalizations for influenza, and a 21% increase in intensive care admissions, compared to the previous 2 weeks. As expected, the groups most affected by severe disease are those over 65 and the very young. We are concerned about reports of localized pressures on hospitals and overcrowding in emergency rooms, due to a confluence of circulating respiratory viruses.”
It isn’t just influenza and COVID patients being hospitalized, Kluge says RS virus, pneumonia, and even a resurgence of measles have resulted in increasing hospital admissions among children.
🇪🇺 🦠
Vaccination uptake for the latest COVID booster dose was not inspiring across the EU and the greater European Economic Area. That is according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. While uptake varied from country to country across the broader EU/EEA the median vaccination rate for vulnerable seniors 60 and older was a mere 11.1%. Among those over 80, it was an uninspiring 16.3%.
The ECDC notes only 24 out of 30 countries reported any vaccination data at all. While some who did report left out uptake among other priority and high-risk groups
🇩🇰
Danish researchers have harnessed the power of artificial intelligence to determine who is most at risk for developing long-COVID. The study by the Statens Serum Institute involved over 80,000 participants taking part in a continuing AFTER-COVID follow-up study. They then used AI and a technique called ‘causal forest’ to hunt for complex patterns using a number of factors and the relationships between them.
The result? People over 35, women, obese people, those who struggle with depression, and people who have asthma have the highest risk of developing long-COVID.
Professor Anders Hviid led the study:
“We can see that there are significant differences in how vulnerable the participants are and that people where several factors apply at the same time are more vulnerable. For example, women over 35 with asthma and women with high BMI and depression have an increased risk of 10 percent. Those who are least exposed are the 15-25-year-olds and men without depression or obesity, where the risk is only increased by one percent or less.”
The institute notes the study is based on the first two years of the pandemic before vaccines and many of the variants we have seen since. So it cautions the picture of who may be more vulnerable now might look different.
🇸🇪
Being infected with COVID, even if it is just a mild infection, can cause years of “brain fog” according to a new study from Sweden.
The study done by researchers at the long-COVID center at Sweden’s Danderyd Hospital shows that some people with mild infections struggle with long-term impairments in memory, difficulty concentrating, fatigue, and an inability to learn new information.
While Sweden’s pandemic response was wildly irresponsible the one thing it did right was key in on long-COVID assessment, treatment, and research early on. Researchers in Sweden have been studying long-COVID since the virus arrived in 2020 when the issue first reared its head.
This latest study shows a direct link between the virus and people struggling with COVID symptoms and other consequences long after ‘recovering’.
Senior Physician and Professor at the Karolinska Institutet Kristian Borg says some patients are still struggling with COVID symptoms from infections from when the pandemic began.
“At first, we speculated a bit about whether the cognitive problems came from the people being in the intensive care unit for a long time, but now we see that this is not the reason. Instead, it is a direct effect of the virus itself. We have no idea how long these problems can last. I hope that these problems will dissipate over time, but as it looks now, it is rather that the improvements you see in the patients are about them learning to live with the symptoms and compensating for them in other ways.”
The long-COVID center at Danderyd Hospital has received about 1,000 patients in the last year and a half and averages about five or six referrals a week. The clinic reports that their patients have a wide variety of COVID-related health issues. Those include people whose social skills have deteriorated or who report an inability to comprehend or process information from things like emails. Many have been forced to take sick leave from their jobs.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮
Finland is quietly testing its wartime economy, which is a set of contingencies countries have to mobilize its economy to produce, allocate, and mobilize all resources to wage war.
Chief of Military Economics of the Defense Forces, Lieutenant General Mikko Heiskanen, told Finnish news outlet Helsingin Sanomat that they will test the production reservation system. That refers to contracts across a wide swath of industries and businesses where in the event of war they are obliged to produce everything from food, clothing, weapons, ammunition, and more for national defense.
Beginning next month the Finnish Defense Forces will test wartime production by ordering trial batches through the production reservation system to see if the production lines will meet today’s demands.
Heiskanen emphasized that this does not mean that Finland is in any way making the transition to an actual wartime economy but rather just putting the system through its paces to ensure it still stands up.
“Our intention is not to go into a total war economy mode because there is no need for that. It's enough that we do test batches. Until now, the focus has been on their operation being cost-effective under normal conditions. Now it is ensured that they also work in exceptional circumstances.”
This comes as Finland funnels increased funding for its military and for ammunition production. Not only are ammunition and weapons warehouses filling back up but the army has decided they must also now be expanded in order to store even more.
🇫🇮 🇪🇪
Cross-border traffic between Russia and Estonia has seen a dramatic increase since Finland closed its land borders with Russia in order to fend off a wave of illegal immigration. The Estonian city of Narva is the next closest crossing.
The Estonian Border Guard Service’s Tarmo Hütt spoke to the Finnish news agency STT:
“We have had 10,000 border crossings since the beginning of the year. That is a really significant increase.”
Hütt said before Finland closed its land borders with Russia the Narva crossing saw about 200 crossings a month.
🇸🇪 🇷🇺
The Swedish island of Gotland is preparing for war and has been since Russia invaded Ukraine. The island is strategically situated in the Baltic Sea and a military force stationed there can control Baltic supply routes. NATO frequently runs war games with member nations taking turns being Russia. In each and every instance the country playing Russia captures Gotland as their first move.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Swedish Armed Forces have been fortifying the island, setting up barracks, and installing weapons systems. But things are getting a lot more serious now as the island’s garrison is about to grow from 400 soldiers to 4,500. A plan to secure the island’s cultural objects is now in place and storage sites are being stockpiled with enough food, medicine, and presumably ammunition for the island to be self-sufficient for 90 days if need be. 120 million Swedish kroner (about $15.4 million Cdn) is being spent on food supplies alone.
🇹🇷 🇺🇸 🇬🇷
Be careful what you wish for. Immediately after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed off on his parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s NATO application the United States has opened the door to selling the country F-16 fighter jets. Erdogan has long coveted the more modern American fighter jet and has wanted to buy up to 40 new aircraft along with parts and equipment that would allow the 79 the country already has to be modernized. Within hours of Erdogan signing Sweden’s ascension protocol, the US Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a $23 billion (USD) deal to fulfill Turkey’s needs.
But in the same breath, the U.S. also announced an $8 billion sale of the much more advanced F-35 fighter jets to neighbouring Greece, an American ally in the region. Tensions between Turkey and Greece have eased a little lately but the two countries have been at loggerheads for much of the last few years.
🇸🇪 🇭🇺
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbân this week. Hungary is now the only NATO member nation to have yet to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership. But while Orbân raised eyebrows last week making the invitation to meet for “negotiations” it appears Sweden is drawing a much firmer line with Hungary than it did with Turkey. Kristersson told reporters on Friday that he is happy to meet with Orbân but there will be no negotiations on Sweden’s NATO application but perhaps on ways the two countries can cooperate once Sweden joins the military alliance.
Orbân’s negotiations ploy was upstaged when Turkey suddenly held a ratification vote giving its support to Sweden joining NATO. The red-faced Hungarian PM then pledged his country’s support for Sweden and that a ratification vote would be held by his parliament as soon as possible. Not exactly putting himself in a power position for any negotiations.
🇺🇸 🇩🇪
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and U.S. President Joe Biden will meet in Washington next month. One of the big issues on the table in the February 9th meeting will be military support for Ukraine. Continued U.S. military aid to Ukraine has been stonewalled in Congress by Republicans.
🇩🇪 🇺🇦
Europe must do more to support Ukraine. That was the message over the weekend from German Finance Minister Christian Lindner. He says Germany is “doing its part” to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia and it is willing to “mobilize even more if necessary” but added that the rest of Europe also has to put their backs into it. His comments echo those of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz who said earlier this month that Germany’s military support for Ukraine is insufficient to make up for the deficit from other EU countries.
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Speaking of Germany’s military support for Ukraine, German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius revealed what Germany is planning to send Ukraine’s way this year.
IRIS-T SLM air defense systems
GEPARD anti-air guns
additional artillery systems with more than 230.000 rounds of ammo
80+ Leopard 1A5 tanks
additional APC's
additional engineering machines and bridge-layers
450 armored vehicles
Mine clearance systems
drones
radar systems and recon systems
“We also need more speed in arms production. Germany is taking on this dual task: On the one hand, we are covering Ukraine's most urgent needs here and now with weapons, materials and training. On the other hand, with the Air Defense Capability Coalition, we promise long-term support with the most modern systems, the best training and sustainable structures, interoperable with the NATO armed forces.”
Germany has already donated six more Sea King MK 41 multi-purpose helicopters to Ukraine this year.
🇧🇪 🇺🇦
Add Belgium to the list of countries that are taking frozen Russian assets and gifting them to Ukraine to help fund its war effort. Belgium will transfer €611 million to Ukraine, the total value of all Russian assets frozen by the Belgium government since Russia invaded Ukraine.
🇩🇰
The argument over gender equality when it comes to who should be eligible for conscription continues in Denmark. While the country’s previous Defense Minister was all for women being included in conscription the current one is a little more reticent. Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen has so far evaded providing a direct answer when faced with the question only saying there is some “disagreement” about how the conscription model should be.
The Danish Defense Forces is currently reassessing the rules and parameters of conscription with the goal of exploring every option on the table in order to beef up the army.
Odds & Ends
🇩🇰
For the second time in almost as many days, another gaggle of farmed Turkeys in Southern Sjælland has tested positive for the deadly bird flu and will have to be euthanized. The Danish Food Agency says the cull of the 27,000 Turkeys began on Sunday. On Friday, 25,000 Turkeys in another nearby farm also tested positive for bird flu and had to be put down.
The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration:s Bente Hols:
“This is the second time this year that we have found the deadly and highly contagious H5N1 bird flu in a herd close to Skælskør, and as always we are making a great effort to clarify the source of the infection.”
Bird flu rarely infects humans but is deadly for birds.
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Denmark continues to chart a course on the work and life balance that people in North America would find almost unbelievable. One Danish municipality has been experimenting with a four-day 37-hour work week for three years now. It was so successful that Esbjerg Kommune made the change permanent. Three other municipalities, including Copenhagen, have also made a four-day work week an option for their employees and Danish municipalities are lining up to follow suit. It isn’t just local government, private companies in Denmark are also beginning to take s serious look at a four-day work week.
Esbjerg Job Center Manager Pia Damtoft told DR that at least 20 other municipalities want to know more and she is spending more and more time giving presentations on the benefits of a shortened work week. She adds that for municipalities it helps make them more competitive for recruiting new staff.
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Copenhagen Kommune (municipality) is launching a new plan to combat online radicalization. Children in the city’s school system will be taught how to look critically at propaganda and about methods extremist groups use to recruit people online.
Employment and Integration Mayor Jens-Kristian Lütken says that social media in particular can influence young people towards extremism. He says the war between Israel and Hamas is a perfect example of why people need to be critical of information they encounter online.
“If it goes unchallenged, there is a danger that the young people will be radicalized. We want to avoid that at all costs.”
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People in Denmark seem to be spending less and less time on social media. DR Analyse, which monitors media trends in Denmark, has found that social media use is down across the board with Facebook taking the biggest hit as daily use fell by 6%. Specifically, younger people 25 to 31 are shying away from Facebook while use is still high among the 47 to 64 age group.
It is not just social media but also streaming services that users in Denmark are turning off. Netflix is seeing subscriber numbers in Denmark drop as more and more Danes move to the national broadcaster’s robust streaming options on DRTV.
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The Copenhagen Zoo says an estimated 27,076 animals were born and bred in the zoo last year. Among them were baby tapirs, giraffes, red pandas, and wombats. The animals are not just for show but the zoo plays a role in breeding endangered species around the world in order to try and reintegrate back into the wild.
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If you are in the market for a new car in Denmark then keep an eye out for deals. According to Statistics Denmark, about 45% of car dealers reported that they have too much inventory this month. The number of unsold overstocked vehicles in car lots across the country is at its highest point since 2020. This could lead to some ‘special offers’ on car sales and leases in order to reduce stock.
🇩🇰The Week Ahead Round Up🇩🇰
Monday, January 29:
Copenhagen Fashion Week begins.
The week-long event will focus on the clothes and styles for next autumn and winter.
It takes place at various venues around the city and runs until February 2.
You can see a full event itinerary and find more information HERE.
Thursday, February 1:
The Winter Jazz Festival 2024 begins.
A number of artists will be playing at venues around Copenhagen until the festival ends on February 25.
You can see the full line up and learn more HERE.
Friday, February 2:
The 2024 Copenhagen Light Festival begins.
An array of dazzling light displays will light up the night around the city and especially along the waterfront.
The festival will go through February 25.
You can see the full program and all the display locations HERE.