Monday Morning News & Notes
Global COVID numbers drop. New variants on the rise.
*Apologies for the lack of posts last week. Things got complicated with a work trip and the family getting hit with another virus. Thankfully, not COVID but still not awesome*
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌏🦠
The global COVID situation continues to improve although there are a few bumps in the road when you zoom in on some specific regions and countries. Global infection numbers fell by another 5% in the week ending November 20, with 2.4 million new cases reported. Keep in mind, due to COVID testing falling off a cliff, case numbers are extremely unreliable. The latest weekly COVID update from the World Health Organization says global coronavirus deaths also continued to drop, down by another 13% week to week, although that still means over 7,800 more lives were lost.
At the regional level, only the Americas (+3%) and South East Asian (+8%) regions saw an increase in infections week to week. Cases fell the most in the Eastern Mediterranean (-22%). Pandemic deaths rose in the African (+124% 38 vs eight deaths), South East Asia (+13), and Western Pacific (+1%) regions.
Japan continues to record the most new weekly coronavirus cases with 593,075 (+18%), followed by South Korea with 364,536 (+2%), and the United States with 274,067 (-3%). As far as pandemic deaths, the U.S. continues to see by far the most weekly fatalities of any nation on earth, with another 2,202 Americans (-5%) losing their lives. Japan saw the 2nd highest number of weekly deaths with 702 (+27%), followed by China with 476 lives lost (+16%).
The WHO says the Omicron variant and its sub-variants accounted for 99.9% of all sequenced positive test results in the last 30 days. BA.5 and its sub-variants make up the largest portion of that with 72.1%. As for new variants of concern, BQ.1 has been confirmed in 73 countries, while the XBB recombinant strain is active in 47. Globally, BQ.1 has increased its share of cases from 19.1% to 23.1% week to week.
🇪🇺🦠
COVID numbers continue to plunge in Europe, but as winter begins to arrive and a new concerning variant spreads, the situation could change. In the week ending November 20, infections in the EU among vulnerable seniors declined by another 13% according to the latest pandemic snapshot from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control. All of the 25 European countries reporting age-specific statistics saw numbers fall among those 65 years old and older. COVID cases were also down across all age groups (-6%) as did pandemic fatalities (-7%). That said, three countries are reporting rising infection numbers.
The more reliable hospitalizations numbers were also down by another 19% while intensive care admissions plummeted by 33% week to week across Europe. Looking a little closer, six countries saw increasing numbers in one or both categories
Pandemic deaths also continue to fall, with not a single European country reporting anything but dropping fatality numbers.
The ECDC does sound a warning, though, as it is forecasting infection numbers to increase over the next two weeks while hospitalizations will continue to drop, and COVID deaths will remain stable.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
One of the two flies in the ointment of an otherwise hopeful pandemic picture is the rise of the BQ.1 variant, which now makes up 30.8% of all infections in the ten European countries testing and sequencing in numbers high enough to provide reliable data.
The other is an absolutely dismal uptake of a 2nd booster dose with a mere 11% of the total European population getting a fourth shot. Among especially vulnerable seniors uptake of a 2nd booster is just 28.6%.
🇩🇰
The once dominant BA.5 variant continues to fade in Denmark, making up 49.24% of all positive sequenced test results in week 46. That is quite a drop from the almost 80% of just four weeks ago. BQ.1.1 is gaining ground, doubling its infection spread in the last two weeks to 28.69%. The BA.2.75 variant is also suddenly creeping upward, making up 13.45% of all cases, a more than four-fold increase in the last four weeks.
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Denmark’s Statens Serum Institute has begun tracking booster dose efficacy as the effort to get target groups across the country a 4th dose continues. Currently, 33.1% of the total population has had a 2nd booster dose. Among the primary target group, those 50 years old and older, vaccination uptake is sitting at about 72%.
Senior Physician Bolette Søborg:
“Our analysis of vaccine effectiveness show that people who have received the 4th dose since September 15th are well protected against severe infection and hospitalization as a result of a COVID infection and are approximately 75% better protected than people who have only received three doses."
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Over the last week, new infections in Denmark continue to be focused among those 20 to 64 years old, although really it should read as among those 20 to 49 years old. But, the SSI hasn’t organized its age groupings that way. The efficacy of the 2nd booster dose is pretty well reflected in these numbers.
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Seniors continue to be at a higher risk of severe COVID infection resulting in hospitalization, with 65% of all pandemic-related hospitalizations in Denmark over the last week being among those 65 years old and older.
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In week 46, COVID hospitalizations continued to decline in Denmark, with 245 new admissions, 35 fewer than the week before. However, at the end of week 47, last week, hospitalizations (267) nudged back upward (+15) day to day, while the number of severely infected people in intensive care (11) also crept upward (+2) and of those the number on a ventilator (3) dipped slightly (-1).
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Danish researchers appear to have found a link between low vitamin D levels and more severe COVID infections. The Statens Serum Institute used blood samples from Denmark’s National Blood Bank as well as COVID surveillance data to investigate the role, if any, vitamin D levels played in coronavirus infections. Researchers were able to measure vitamin D levels in 447 blood samples. Of those, it found 205 people were hospitalized due to a coronavirus infection; another 34 ended up in intensive care, and 82 died within 30 days of a positive test. Closely analyzing the results, researchers determined that those with a vitamin D deficiency were twice as likely to suffer a severe COVID infection than those who had sufficient levels of the vitamin.
Professor Anders Hviid:
“It is important to emphasize that our results are not a call to consume high doses of vitamin D, for example, through food supplements. Our results support that we must ensure that we have optimal vitamin D levels as recommended by the Danish Health Authority, no more and no less."
The one caveat to the study is that the cases involved were all infected during the beginning of the pandemic before vaccines and new more contagious variants had arrived.
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RS virus infections continue to sweep across Denmark as the country experiences its 2nd highest ever infection wave of the seasonal virus. Although, the latest data from the SSI may indicate the infection wave could be leveling off or even declining slightly. This years RS virus outbreak is not only resulting in much higher numbers, but it has also arrived much earlier than usual. This is in contrast to the spring RS virus wave, which came much later than ever seen before.
🇩🇪
Germany is seeing increased rates of excess mortality across every month of the year so far. Excess mortality is the measurement of deaths higher than the average over previous periods of time. On average, the monthly death rate in Germany is 9% higher this year than any previous year going back through the first two years of the pandemic and the two years prior to that. That is a pretty significant increase. Rates really rose in the summer months of June (+9%), July (+12%), and August (+11%).
While COVID is certainly a factor, the German Federal Statistics Office says climate change may also be playing a role with the summer heat wave possibly contributing to a spike in deaths. However, after the heat wave eased excess mortality remained very high in September (+10%) and especially in October (+19%). The Federal Statistical Office is at a bit of a loss as to why excess mortality rates are so high in fall. But, it is wondering if this could be related to pandemic spill-over effects like the impact on hospital staffing and services. Another factor could be the return of viruses like influenza and the RS virus, which seem to be hitting much harder than in pre-pandemic years.
🦠💉
A population-level study out of England is making the case that booster doses among adolescents are not really all that helpful, although the study has its drawbacks. The study published in the Lancet, used infection and testing statistics to assess the differences in immune protection among kids who had been vaccinated, infected, or both, or who were unvaccinated. It found hybrid immunity, vaccination and infection, offered the highest level of immune protection, especially against the Delta variant, with protection dropping a little, 80 to 90% three months after a 3rd dose, against the Omicron variant.
Study authors cite the need for more data as well as the emergence of more immune evasive variants since the study was published in cautioning that its conclusions shouldn’t be carved in stone. They also warned as testing rates plummet in England, and around the world, it doesn’t just blind us to pandemic developments and emerging variants but it also kneecaps any further studies like this one.
“Free community PCR or lateral flow tests ended in the UK in March, 2022, and, therefore, analyses such as this will no longer be possible and will be restricted to monitoring severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and death.”
You can find the study in full HERE.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
The energy crisis is hitting Danish churches. DR is reporting that the Diocese of Lolland-Falster has given its 108 churches permission to move or even cancel services in order to save on heating costs. Apparently, some of the churches have seized the opportunity. A similar story is playing out Viborg diocese, which is responsible for a number of churches in central and western Jutland. So far, five churches have chosen to cut back some of their normal services to try and save on energy costs.
🇪🇺
Winter is coming. Temperatures across Europe have begun to cool down, especially among northern countries, and that means energy demands are rising. With Russia turning off its gas taps, European Union countries have scrambled to fill up gas storage tanks in preparation. Now gas withdrawals have begun albeit not anywhere near the historical pace, thanks to an unusually warm fall.
Croatia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, and Hungary are dipping into their gas reserves the fastest at the moment. On the other end of the spectrum is Spain, where gas storages are almost at 93% and a steady flow of LNG continues to arrive.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
As Russia weaponizes its energy exports to try to bring Europe to its knees, the long term impacts on the Russian oil and gas industry are starting to materialize. Europe, once one of Russia’s biggest and most reliable natural gas customers, is turning its back on the Russian bear. European statistics agency, EuroStat, says this shift is bearing out in the latest energy stats. It says Russia’s share of EU energy imports dropped by more than 10 percentage points from the first to the third quarter of this year, going from 25.5% down to 15.1%.
While Russia’s share of the EU energy market diminishes the United States is seeing its share of the European energy market rise.
🇩🇪
Germany will delay the mothballing of three of its nuclear power plants in order to ensure electricity supply this winter as the energy crisis sinks its teeth in. The German government has agreed to delay the closing of the Isar 2, Neckarwestheim 2, and Emsland nuclear power plants. The three power plants will continue to operate until at least April of next year.
Germany, one of the hardest hit European countries due to Russia turning the gas taps off, had been working to phase out its nuclear power plants. The plan had called for all the remaining nuclear power plants in the country to be shut down by years end.
🌏
Bloomberg is reporting that the wealthiest countries on earth will spend 17.7% of their GDP on energy this year. This is the 2nd highest energy expenditure ever recorded among first world countries, just behind the 17.8% forked out during the oil crisis in 1980 to 81.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇷🇺/ 🇺🇦
As Russia focuses its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure as it tries to freeze the country into submission, a WHO official is warning the winter would be deadly for millions of Ukrainians. World Health Organization European head Hans Kluge says his agency has now recorded more than 700 attacks by Russia on Ukrainian hospitals and other healthcare facilities since the war began. Kluge says hundreds of healthcare buildings are no longer fully functional. Then, on top of that, he says, you see the impacts of Russian attacks on electricity, water, and heating plants.
Kluge warns the situation is dire enough it could trigger another wave of Ukrainian refugees.
“We expect that between two and three million more will leave their homes in search of warmth and safety.”
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
Norway is pitching in to help Ukraine as Russia rains missiles down on its energy and heating infrastructure. Norwegian Finance Minister Trygve Slagsvold Vedum says Norway will purchase two billion Norwegian kroner (about $270 million Cdn) worth of natural gas for Ukraine. The agreement was signed last week.
“Winter is coming in earnest in Ukraine. The Russians have turned energy into a weapon in the war and are using attacks on critical infrastructure as a means of trying to break Ukraine.”
The financial support between Norway and Ukraine is being provided by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
“It is important that support is given through an established and internationally recognized organization which ensures that the money is used efficiently and transparently.”
NATO/ 🇺🇦
Supplying weapons and ammunition to Ukraine has begun to seriously tax western stockpiles. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says production of weapons and ammunition needs to be boosted in order to maintain weapon stockpiles and keep supply the slow of arms to Ukraine.
Stoltenberg says NATO has exhausted a significant portion of its weapons and ammunition stockpiles and efforts need to be made to keep support for Ukraine going over the “long haul.”.
“We have to remember that the price we pay is measured in money, and the price Ukraine is paying is measured in lives and blood, every day, and it’s our obligation to support them.”
🇬🇧/ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
Russia may be struggling with a serious depletion of arms and missiles. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense says Russia is now removing the nuclear warheads from its stockpile of Kh-55 cruise missiles in order to keep raining rockets down on Ukraine. The British MoD theorizes the launching of the inert missiles may be used as decoys to try and divert Ukrainian air defenses so that other rockets can slip through. The ministry says this indicates the Russian military has seriously depleted its arsenal of more advanced high-precision missiles.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
There is a push underway among some European Union states to try to confiscate assets seized or frozen by sanctions placed on Russia and give the monies to Ukraine to help rebuild after the war. The Irish Times is reporting that Ireland and seven other nations are pushing the idea within the EU.
Belgium has frozen the most Russian assets worth approximately €3.5 billion, Luxembourg is just behind seizing almost €2.5 billion, it is followed by Germany (€2.2 billion), Austria and Ireland (€1.8 billion each), France (€1.3 billion), and Spain (more than €1 billion). But all is not equal across Europe, as Hungary has frozen or seized a paltry €3,000 in Russian assets.
The EU is also examining the idea of holding €30 billion of frozen Russian central bank reserves as a guarantor that Russia will pay towards the reconstruction of Ukraine
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The European Union is working on another package of sanctions targeted at Russia and while firm details have yet to be released there are reports that it will target “double use materials” like microchips in household electronics. There is some evidence household electronics, like washing machines, not covered by sanctions are being shipped to Russia so the microchips and other electronics can be stripped out and used for military purposes.
🇪🇸/ 🇺🇦
Spain has announced it will open a new military training center for Ukrainian soldiers in Toledo. According to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez the military training site will complement the ones already up and running in the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Europe.
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Spanish police have also been deployed to Ukraine to help in the international effort to gather evidence of Russia war crimes.