Monday Morning News & Notes
Vaccine strategy changes in Denmark draw ire. The energy crisis drives up bills.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰
Denmark is one of just five countries in Europe suffering increasing numbers of COVID deaths. In Denmark, most of those fatalities are vulnerable seniors and some experts are beginning to voice concerns.
Roskilde University Associate Professor in Mathematical Epidemiology Viggo Andreasen spoke to Berlingske.
“There is quite a lot of coronavirus in Denmark right now. The number of corona-related deaths has grown in the past month, and these are not random fluctuations. It is a real increase, and it is probably a consequence of the fact that vaccine protection among a large part of the population is getting old; there is very little protection left.”
He and other epidemiologists and infectious disease experts have begun to take to social media to urge the Danish government to begin administering booster doses to vulnerable seniors and others and do it as fast as possible.
While some high-risk and vulnerable populations can get a 4th dose now, a full booster dose campaign won’t get off the ground in Denmark until mid-September.
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The Danish National Board of Health is at the center of growing criticism on social media after it was noticed that it quietly changed vaccination guidelines in July to exclude children. According to the Health Board, COVID vaccines are no longer recommended for children.
Odense Hospital Immunologist Dr. Mike Bogetofte Barnkob is among a group of experts and parents who are raising the alarm over this decision. He says the decision appears to have been made in a vacuum with no scientific rationale or supporting data behind it.
Barnkob notes that both the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control continue to recommend children get vaccinated. He also points to the fact that Denmark vaccinates children between the ages of two and six years old against influenza. The reasoning for this is backed up by a review of the evidence.
“In Denmark, we have removed the vaccines without explaining why; who should still get them; or what will happen in the future. I would venture the claim that there is far more data for corona, vaccines, and children than there is for the flu vaccine that is now offered to children. There can be no doubt that some children should be offered the vaccine. For example, children with asthma. Others will probably speak for or against other groups. But no one has an interest in all children being excluded from vaccination. Still, that is now what has effectively happened.”
Other experts also note a growing number of studies on the increased risk of long-COVID among children and how one way to protect those children is to get them vaccinated.
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The Statens Serum Institute doesn’t update COVID numbers over the weekend. It will table three days worth of pandemic data later today.
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In the last seven days, COVID infections have been highest among those 20 to 79 years old but activity is especially high in the 40 to 64 year old age group.
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The majority of COVID hospitalizations continue to be among those over 49 years old but are absolutely highest among seniors 65 years old and older. A concerning bump in the numbers also persists among infants.
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Daily PCR testing numbers continue to fall and have now reached a point triggering another reduction in the daily testing capacity. The Danish Agency for Security of Supply says as of August 15, the number of daily PCR tests will be lowered to 10,000. On average, there have been just 4,900 PCR tests taken per day over the past week.
The agency says that daily testing capacity can be increased at anytime if required. Denmark’s new fall and winter COVID strategy does include an increased reliance on testing as part of responding to what is expected to be another COVID wave ahead.
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On August 15, the Danish National Board of Health will take over all aspects of COVID testing and any associated tasks and requirements.
🇪🇺🦠
The BA.5 driven COVID wave continues to ease across Europe. The latest European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control pandemic assessment says the COVID incident rate at the end of week 31 was 632.9 per 100,000 people, a 26% decrease from the week previous. The incidence rate has been falling for three straight weeks. Among vulnerable seniors, the incidence rate dropped 21%. However, infection activity among those 65 years old and older remains high, 58% of the pandemic maximum.
While the infection wave wanes across Europe, it isn’t true for every individual country. The ECDC says Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania have reported increasing coronavirus activity for at least seven weeks or more. While Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia have seen COVID cases among seniors continue to increase for the past six weeks or more. The ECDC notes low vaccination rates are a commonality among the countries mentioned above.
Across the EU, COVID hospitalizations and intensive care admissions have also declined, but occupancy rates remain stable. Of the 28 countries reporting data on hospital and ICU admissions, seven saw increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The 14 day pandemic death rate per million population has also dropped from 16.5 to 12 from week to week. But, at the individual country level Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Romania are reporting increasing COVID deaths.
53.5% of the total EU population has had one vaccine booster dose and 5.9% have had a second booster shot.
The BA.4 and BA.5 variants continue to dominate in Europe, accounting for 97.3% of all sequenced positive test results in the 11 countries doing enough of both to produce trustworthy data. 1.8% were the BA.2 variant, and the BA.2.75 variant that sparked concern after exploding in India was found in just 13 infection cases in the last two weeks of July.
Over the next two weeks, the ECDC is forecasting that infections, hospitalizations, and intensive care admissions will all continue to fall while deaths will be stable.
“It should be noted that forecasts of cases are considered to be increasingly unreliable due to changes in testing criteria and reporting procedures. All current forecasts, in particular case forecasts, should be treated with caution.”
WHO🦠
Global infection activity remained stable, according to the latest weekly World Health Organization’s pandemic situation report. In the first week of August, 6.9 million new infections were reported. The WHO cautions due to wildly different and inconsistent testing from country to country, there is no way to accurately ascertain the ‘real’ level of infection activity.
COVID deaths fell around the world by 9% but even then over 14,000 more lives were lost in the beginning of August.
Of the six global regions, the WHO says only the Western Pacific saw cases increase week to week (+29%). In the European Region they dipped by 7% and in the Americas cases dropped 22%. Africa saw the biggest drop as infections plummeted by 46%.
The Eastern Mediterranean suffered increasing pandemic deaths (+19%) as did the Western Pacific (+4%). While fatalities eased in Europe (-15%), the Americas (-10%), and most of all in Africa (-73%).
Looking at the individual countries, the WHO says Japan saw the most new cases in the first week of August with almost 1.5 million infections (+9%). While the USA suffered by far the most deaths of any nation in that week, with 2,764 more lives lost. In Europe, Italy (1,059) and Spain (654) saw the most fatalities.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations eased across Canada in the week ending August 8. The total number of hospital beds used by pandemic patients dropped by 189 to 4,905. Of those, general admissions dropped from 4,815 to 4,641. The number of infected people needing intensive care also declined by 174 to 4,641. However, the number of people on a ventilator bucked the trend as numbers crept upward by two to 103.
COVID deaths have passed a grim milestone in Canada, crossing 43,000 lives lost, with another 263 pandemic deaths in its latest weekly report pushing total to-date deaths to 43,178.
The Public Health Agency of Canada reported 25,204 coronavirus infections (underreported).
The second day positivity percentage is 12.4%.
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The Canadian vaccination effort has so far administered 33,812,008 1st vaccine doses (88.43% of the total population) while 31,445,242 people (82.24%) have a 2nd dose, and of those, 20,806,329 people have a booster shot.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
🇩🇰
The Danish parliament has approved the purchase of 10,000 more doses of Imvanex, the vaccine against monkeypox. The doses will be bought from Bavarian Nordic.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“We take the disease seriously and test in case of suspicion, infection tracker and guidance. Therefore, we offer a preventive vaccine to the risk group, so that we protect those who are at greatest risk and reduce the infection. Statens Serum Institut is currently working on getting the vaccines delivered as quickly as possible so that they can be used during August.”
Denmark recently expanded its monkeypox vaccination program to include more groups at risk including gay and bi-sexual men, in an effort to limit an increasing number of infections.
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A sign of how widespread the monkeypox outbreak has become as new variants emerge. A group of global experts recently convened by the WHO has created a system for naming monkeypox virus variants. While COVID variants are referred to by letters of the Greek alphabet, the expert panel went with Roman numerals for monkeypox variants. Currently, there are three strains, Clade I, Clade IIa, and Clade IIb. Clade I is the Congo Basin strain, Clade II is the West African strain. Clade II has two sub-variants, hence the lower case alphabet letters.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇫🇮 🇪🇪
As Finland waits on a verdict on its NATO application, it isn’t wasting time in integrating its military operations with its alliance neighbours.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told Finnish news publication Iltalehti that Estonia and Finland have agreed to work together to create between the two countries a missile defense system that will close the Baltic to Russia if need be.
“We need to integrate our coastal defenses. The range of Estonian and Finnish missiles is longer than the width of the Gulf of Finland. It means that we combine our missile defense and share all our information with each other. The Baltic Sea is NATO's inland sea, when Finland and Sweden have joined NATO. The situation will change compared to what it is like today.”
The two countries will draw up a new defense plan for the entire Baltic region. It will be hashed out over the coming fall and winter with the goal of finalizing it by early 2023.
🇩🇰
Another 11 patients from Ukraine have arrived in Denmark over the weekend to receive medical care, according to the Danish Health Ministry. That brings the total number that have been airlifted to Denmark to 34.
The Danish government has offered up to 200 care beds for Ukrainian wounded and others who needed medical care. The health ministry says to date Ukraine has made 1,235 requests to the EU for help treating patients with war injuries or Ukrainians needing other medical care.
Health Minister Magnus Heunicke:
“The Danish healthcare system is ready to help Ukrainians who may need hospital treatment, and Friday, we received 11 patients from Ukraine. This is a significantly larger number than previously. Denmark has indicated that it can receive up to 200 patients from Ukraine or affected neighboring countries; this applies to both soldiers and civilians.”
🇪🇪/ 🇷🇺
In just three days, Estonia will institute a ban on approving new tourist visas for Russian nationals. It will also block access to Estonia for thousands of Russians who had a tourist visa approved prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Lithuania and the Czech Republic are also both moving to ban the issuing of tourist visas to Russian citizens.
🇩🇰/ 🇪🇪 🇷🇺
As Estonia prepares to ban tourist visas for most Russian citizens, some of the Danish political parties are calling on the government to follow suit.
Immigration and Integration Minister Kaare Dybvad Bek spoke to DR and said he would prefer any ban be introduced by the EU and not individual European countries.
“The proposal is good, and it is true that we must stop giving tourist visas to Russian citizens. But I also think that it is important that we do it as a European solution. If we go one-way in Denmark, then in principle you will be able to take the plane to Malmö and then take the train over to Copenhagen, regardless of whether we in Denmark have stopped issuing visas, because you travel freely within the Schengen area.”
🇫🇮
The Finnish government will meet on Tuesday to tackle the issue of restricting tourist visas for Russian citizens. Prime Minister Sanna Marin has said the issue will also be raised at the European Union level. The issue is one of hot debate in Finland as the number of tourist visas to Russians has increased sharply. Immigration officials in Norway and Finland say that Russians are getting tourist visas to cross into the two Nordic countries and then using them as a spring board to travel elsewhere across the EU.
While the issue is about to be discussed at the political level, others are taking advantage to send arriving Russians a pointed message. In one instance, a billboard was put up near a Finnish border crossing telling arriving Russians that they can return home after their vacation but Ukrainians cannot. At another Finnish tourist site, the Imatrankoski rapids, which is well-known for attracting Russian tourists, the Ukrainian national anthem is now regularly played.
🇵🇱
Poland is taking steps to ban tourist visas for Russian citizens. The process will likely take a few weeks before something corner can be enforced.
🇫🇷
Former French Ambassador to the United States, Gérard Araud, has taken to Twitter with an opposing argument to banning Russian citizens from attaining tourist visas to travel within Europe.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇪
Germany’s Rhine river continues to be a huge concern as water levels remain at record low levels. The key waypoint at Kaub, measured at 34 centimeters (a measure of navigability, not depth) on Sunday, after it fell below the 40 centimeter mark a few days prior. Barge traffic on the Rhine, including important energy shipments, becomes uneconomical when the river falls below 40 centimeters. The river is forecast to dip slightly below 30 centimeters today (Monday) and then more or less hold there for the next four or five days at least.
As the climate crisis crashes into the energy crisis, the Rhine’s low water levels aren’t just hamstringing the movement of goods and materials by barge it is also kneecapping hydroelectric production, adding to already mounting energy woes.
🇩🇪 🇳🇱 ✈️
Jet fuel deliveries by barge have been stopped to Germany’s largest airport, and major EU travel hub, Frankfurt. Extremely low water levels on the Rhine due to a lack of rain and high temperatures have made it unsafe to ship jet fuel by river. However, a jet fuel shortage is unlikely at Frankfurt because the airport also receives jet fuel supplies by pipeline.
Both Zurich airport and Amsterdam Schipol also receive jet fuel shipments by barge. Reports say that jet fuel strategic reserve stocks are being used to keep planes flying in Zurich. Contingency plans at Amsterdam Schipol are not clear. The airport has been struggling to deal with a surging traveler demand, a problem exacerbated by some recent job action, and staffing shortages. Schipol actually capped the number of daily passengers this month due to staffing shortages, which may inadvertently ease jet fuel demand.
🇩🇰
The Danish government is going to give certain vulnerable populations some money to help deal with rising costs due to inflation and the energy crisis.
The Employment Ministry says the hope is once some parliamentary procedural issues are taken care of that the first installment will begin to be sent out by the end of September. A second installment will come early in 2023.
Among the people in line to get a check are seniors (2,500 dkk), then people with disabilities (2,000 dkk), followed by single parents (2,000 dkk).
Employment Minister Peter Hummelgaard:
“There is no doubt that many Danes find it difficult to make ends meet due to rising prices. Shortly before the summer holidays, we entered into an agreement with a wide range of Parliamentary parties, which gave a helping hand to some of those who are particularly challenged, including pensioners who receive old-age checks. If the parties in the Folketing approve the expedited bill, then I hope and expect that the entitled persons can have the money in the account before they have to pay the bills for the month of October.”
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Norlys customers are seeing a massive increase in their bills. In a press release, Denmark's largest energy and telecommunications provider blames the energy crisis as the price per cubic meter of gas has more than doubled, going from 11.06 Danish kroner to 23.24. It says the surging energy bills are due to low supply as Russia throttles energy exports. The company says it cannot predict where energy prices will go in the future.
🇫🇮
“Unfortunately, this winter the biggest incentive to save electricity will be the bill.”
Finland is grappling with the energy crisis as electricity bills soar. The Finnish government is launching an energy use awareness campaign beginning at the end of the month. It will encourage Finns to conserve power and limit use by doing things like taking shorter showers and limiting heating and cooling in homes and businesses.
Economic Affairs Minister Mika Lintilä is proposing cutting the value added tax (VAT) on electricity by half to try and limit the impact on homeowners. Finnish media are reporting that would reduce state revenues by as much as €300 million. Other avenues to try and ease the pain of soaring bills are also being discussed.
🇭🇺 🇷🇺/ 🇪🇺
Hungary continues to be a thorn in the EU’s side. As the European Union is working to completely severe all reliance on Russian oil and gas, Hungary announced it is doubling down on its already outsized reliance on Russian energy.
Russia has stopped oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline citing a payment dispute with Ukraine. But oil is flowing again as Hungary has purchased gas supplies from Gasprom above what it usually purchases. Hungary’s Foreign Affairs Minister Tamas Menczer posted to Facebook that trade negotiations with Moscow “led to an agreement.”