Monday Morning News & Notes
Climate Change comes for coffee. Polio warning in the EU.
Editor’s Note - Next week is winter vacation week in Denmark. Informeret will take a break so I can enjoy the holiday with my family. Thanks for reading! We will see you again on the other side.
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🇩🇰🌍
The Danish government is lobbying the UN Climate Panel to focus its attention on an important ocean current known by the abbreviation AMOC. The current, which acts like a radiator for the Nordic countries, brings warm waters from the south to the colder north; this ensures a warmer climate for Denmark and its Scandinavian neighbours. However, a group of scientists backed by several recent studies has warned that ice melt triggered by global warming will essentially turn off the current, possibly as early as this year. If that happens, the consequences would be severe. The last time AMOC shut down, it helped trigger the last ice age.
While that is certainly alarming, another group of scientists backed by their own study say that all of this is pretty much nonsense. Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard says we need to have a clear answer on whether this is, or is not, a situation we should be worried about. Aagard wants the UN Climate Panel (IPCC) to make the current a major focus of their next climate report. However, the next report from the agency isn’t due until 2029. The IPCC will decide at the end of the month if it will study the AMOC current and issue an expedited report on its findings.
🇪🇺
The sun was shining, the birds were chirping, and some spring flowers were even beginning to pop up. The end of January, even in Northern Europe, felt a little like spring. But in Eastern Europe, the end of the month saw temperature records get absolutely shattered. On January 28, Bucharest, Romania, saw temperatures hit 19°C, while the thermometer rose even further to just over 20°C the very next day.
Romanian National Weather Service Meteorologist Oana Paduraru says those are unheard-of temperatures.
“The difference from the normal temperature to the temperature today is, in some places, 15-16 degrees.”
Temperature records were also shattered from Ukraine to Slovakia and even Croatia.
In the past ten years, the number of days in the winter months with freezing temperatures in Northern Europe has more than halved as a consequence of global warming.
🇫🇮
Finland has experienced a striking rise in temperatures, with the first quarter of the century averaging 1.4°C warmer than 1975–1999, according to the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Since the pre-industrial era, Finland’s climate has warmed by 3.4°C, outpacing the global average. Notably, monthly temperature records were broken in about half of all months between 2000 and 2024, and the country saw its hottest summers on record in both 2021 and 2024.
The warming has also brought extreme weather shifts. Finland’s highest temperature, 37.2°C, was recorded in Joensuu in 2010, significantly surpassing the 33.3°C record from 1994. Last summer, temperatures exceeded 25°C on 71 days, smashing the previous record of 65 days in 2002. Winters have seen drastic changes too, with southern Finland nearly snowless in 2019–20 and January 2025 also starting with exceptionally mild temperatures.
In fact, Finland is experiencing a rather un-Finnish winter with little to no snow again across the country’s southern half. Usually, snow is pretty much a sure thing through January and February. In Virolahti, near the Russian border, the town has never experienced a January without snow until now. Ordinarily, there is about 10 to 30 centimetres of snow on the ground at the start of the year.
🌍 ☕️
Brace for coffee inflation. Coffee bean prices hit a new record high late last week (around $3.70 per pound) and have so far continued to remain at historical highs since. Global warming’s impact on crops has tightened global supply, especially with severe weather impacting Brazil’s coffee belt. A lack of fall rain has exacerbated the impact that drought had on Brazilian coffee crops, which look to have suffered a 4.4% year-over-year decline.
🇩🇰
Toxic caterpillars more synonymous with southern Europe have been found in Denmark for the first time ever. Thanks to global warming, pests used to warmer climates are migrating north, and it looks like the caterpillar called ‘the oak processionary spinner’ is one of them. More than 800 nests have been located so far in Odense on the Danish island of Fyn.
The caterpillar lays its eggs in webs that it spins in oak trees. According to the municipality, it is not dangerous for the trees, but for people and some animals it can be a pestilence because the larvae’s fine hair can cause itching, rashes, and even breathing difficulties.
Odense Municipality recommends that people avoid all contact. It is currently working on a plan to try and deal with the caterpillars before they become active, which is usually in May and June.
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If you thought fish seemed a little more expensive in Denmark, you are probably right. Since a new carbon tax was introduced that applies to diesel used on fishing boats, the number of fishing boats from other countries coming to Danish ports to sell their catch has dropped dramatically as boat owners seek to dodge the tax. That has resulted in fewer fish and rising prices.
Some fish markets in Northern Jutland say they have a third of the fish and seafood they normally would have for sale at this time of year.
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Danish companies that make green investments like moving to renewable energy for heating, creating green jobs, or making production more climate friendly will get a tax discount. That is thanks to a new political agreement reached late last week among a majority of parties in the Danish parliament. 1.1 billion Danish kroner (about $222 million Cdn) has been set aside to fund the initiative.
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The Lego family is closing its private aircraft division due to what it says is falling demand and a renewed focus on sustainability. It could also be because it is a little red in the face after DR reported the company’s three private jets had been used for 300 trips in just one calendar year. The move means that 16 employees will be let go and the three jets sold off.
🇸🇪
Scientists in Sweden are experimenting with biochar, sometimes called biomass, to treat contaminated soil so that it can return to being arable while benefiting the climate. Researchers at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg have been using the process on soil that has been contaminated with the insecticide DDT. The results are promising, but more research is needed before the process can be used with confidence in the real world.
Biochar is a charcoal-like substance produced by burning organic material in a process called pyrolysis. Researcher Paul Drenning says the poison in the DDT-contaminated soil was reduced by half after having biochar mixed in.
“We also saw positive effects on the soil ecosystem as a whole. I see very great potential."
Currently, a site with contaminated soil is either abandoned or the soil is dug up and hauled to a landfill for remediation. One of the big advantages of biochar is that it can be used on-site. But researchers have lingering questions, including how biochar impacts the soil long-term.
“We believe that the effect will last for decades, perhaps even hundreds of years. But for it to provide a real climate benefit, the entire biochar life cycle must be reviewed.”
Biochar also acts like a carbon sink when mixed with soil, which is another plus. However, it also tends to leach nitrogen away from plants that need it to survive.
🇬🇧
Environmental groups won a significant court victory last week when a judge in Scotland ruled that permits issued by the previous British government for oil and gas extraction in the North Sea are illegal. The Rishi Sunak government had given approval for Equinor and Shell to drill in two previously untapped oil fields in the North Sea. The judge ruled that those permits failed to take into account the resulting CO2 emissions and ruled the permits were null and void. Greenpeace, who was among the groups who led the court challenge, described the ruling as “a great victory.”
🇩🇰
Last year, electric vehicle sales surpassed those of fossil fuel vehicles in Denmark. According to Dansk e-Mobilitet, 51.5% of all vehicle sales in the country last year were EVs. In January of this year, EV sales continued to gain momentum. Out of the 10,834 vehicles sold last month, 64%, or 6,961 of them, were electric. The three most popular EVs in Denmark are the Toyota bZ4X and the Volkswagen ID.3 and ID.4.
🇫🇮
Vehicle sales in Finland last year hit lows not seen since the recession of the mid-1990s. The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency says that there were just over 74,000 cars registered in 2024. Since 1997, Finland has seen, on average, just over 100,000 car sales per year.
Agency Chief Specialist Outi Ampuja says that the current state of the world is partly to blame.
"Economic uncertainty is reflected in people's enthusiasm for investing in a new car. Sales of new cars have also fallen in many other European countries.”
Ampuja said the other big factor is people playing a waiting game as they wait for EV prices to become more reasonable.
"There may be expectations of technological developments in the background, and we are still waiting for, for example, the prices of new electric vehicles to fall. Some may be waiting for a suitable EV model for their own use to come onto the market. According to surveys, quite a few motorists are planning to switch to EVs in the near future.”
Last year, almost half of all vehicle sales were EVs or plug-in hybrids. While those numbers dipped by about 5% year over year, fully electric cars still accounted for a full 30% of car sales in 2024, an impressive increase from just 4% in 2020.
🇩🇰🇩🇪
The looming national election in Germany is causing uncertainty outside the country’s borders. In neighbouring Denmark, the government is pressing pause on a huge offshore wind energy project near the island of Bornholm until the election is over. Once built, the Energiø is supposed to supply about 3.3 million homes across Northern Europe with green energy.
The Danish government pressed pause on the project despite the EU announcing just last Thursday that the project will receive almost €650 million in funding.
🇫🇮🇪🇺
Wind energy, solar power, and don’t forget about hydrogen. Finland’s state-owned gas transmission operator, Gasgrid, has received some key support from the EU for three hydrogen pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The European Commission declared all three pipelines meet the EU’s climate and energy goals. It has set aside €51 million for the projects.
€29.4 million will go to the Nordic Hydrogen Route running between Finland and Sweden. The Baltic Sea Hydrogen Collector connecting Finland and Sweden to central Europe will get €15.3 million. While the Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor building hydrogen connections from Finland to Germany via Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland grabbed €6.8 million
The pipelines could come online beginning in the early 2030s.
The EU has a target of having green hydrogen cover about 10% of its energy needs by 2050.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
🇪🇺
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control is issuing a warning about a possible resurgence of the poliovirus. The ECDC says from September to December, four countries in the EU—Finland, Germany, Poland, and Spain—and one in the broader European Economic Area, the United Kingdom, have all reported detections of the poliovirus in wastewater surveillance. This is the first time in over two decades the polio virus has been detected in Europe.
ECDC Director Pamela Rendi-Wagner emphasizes that there have not been any confirmed cases of polio. However, to have the virus suddenly show up in surveillance across so many different countries is alarming, and she is calling for increased vigilance.
“Europe has been polio-free for more than 20 years. We have to remain vigilant, maintain high vaccination rates, and close any vaccination gaps that exist to prevent any return of this serious disease.”
The agency says that laboratory analyses indicate the virus likely ”has been repeatedly introduced from an unknown area where that specific form of the virus is still in circulation.” It says the appearance of the virus “may pose a threat to public health in the EU/EEA and should be monitored closely.”
The poliovirus is extremely infectious and can spread quickly among unvaccinated populations. The ECDC says the best line of defence is to maintain a high level of vaccination, so it is vital that European nations ensure that more than 90% of the population is vaccinated. It warns that there are areas where vaccination rates are much too low. Additionally, the agency estimates that due to the COVID pandemic, around 600,000 children under the age of two did not receive their full polio vaccination.
🇩🇰
COVID infections are taking a backseat to the usual winter respiratory viruses for yet another week in Denmark. The Statens Serum Institute says influenza infections and flu-related hospitalizations are both “at a high level,” and they continue to rocket upward.
RS virus infections and RSV-related hospital admissions are also at a high level and, like the flu, are also continuing to rise.
On the other hand, COVID infections and hospitalizations remain more or less where they were last week. Coronavirus activity as measured by wastewater surveillance is low and continues to fall.
🇸🇪
In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (226) have dropped (-38) while the number of severely infected people requiring intensive care (4) also edged downward (-3).
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Five years ago last week, Sweden had its first confirmed coronavirus infection case, marking the beginning of several turbulent years as it struggled with how to respond to a global pandemic. The country found itself in the centre of a storm for its hands-off approach while its neighbours closed their borders and introduced strict lockdowns. Lockdowns that were dismissed and derided by the architect of Sweden’s pandemic response, then State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. As Sweden suffered catastrophically higher pandemic deaths than its Nordic neighbours, especially among its unprotected seniors, the country’s king called out the strategy in his annual Christmas speech, finally prompting the let it rip strategy to be abandoned.
In 2022, Tegnell would leave his job in bizarre fashion. He supposedly moved to a new position with the WHO, according to an announcement from the Swedish Public Health Agency. However, inquisitive reporters soon discovered no such position existed and no one at the WHO had any idea of his supposed hiring. The news prompted the red-faced health agency to issue an abrupt about-face.
In the years since, an analysis by the Swedish Public Health Agency found that its own pandemic response was flawed and that the country was unprepared to deal with the health crisis. Last week, the agency said while more work needs to be done, a lot of progress has been made since to ensure vulnerable seniors will be better protected in any future pandemic. Malin Bengnér, an infectious diseases doctor in Jönköping who treated Sweden's first COVID patient, told Swedish Radio News that more stability is still needed in the healthcare system ahead of any future pandemic. Bengnér added that hospital staff also need more training in hygiene and infection prevention.
Sweden has suffered over 27,000 COVID deaths, a number that does not include fatalities of people with underlying health conditions where COVID could have also been a factor.
🇫🇮
Influenza cases are mounting in Finland, where the flu now accounts for most respiratory virus-related hospital admissions.
Helsinki University Hospital’s Epidemiology Unit Assistant Chief Medical Health Officer Eeva Ruotsalainen says the timing of the influenza wave is unfortunate with students about to take their winter holiday week.
“If you haven't gotten the vaccine yet, it's definitely still worth getting, even though flu season is already underway. The vaccine is the best way to prevent influenza.”
In Finland, 64% of those over the age of 80 and 58% over 65 have had a flu shot. That is well below the EU health authority's targeted vaccination rate of at least 75%.
🇨🇦
Misinformation can be deadly. A study from the Council of Canadian Academies found that misinformation caused vaccine skepticism, resulted in about 2,800 coronavirus-related deaths in Canada. And that was just from March to November in 2021. The CCA found that if everyone who thought the pandemic was exaggerated or an outright hoax had gotten vaccinated, then pandemic deaths in Canada over that eight-month period would have been 35% lower. Researchers found that some 2.3 million Canadians shared pandemic misinformation online during that time frame.
Royal Roads University Associate Professor Jaigris Hodson:
“Seven percent of the population were hesitant to vaccinate; the same number said they would not vaccinate at all because of what they read on social media.”
As you can see below, the spread of misinformation had a number of consequences.
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Thanks to vaccine skepticism spread by misinformation, measles cases are increasing in Canada to such an extent that the Chief Public Health Officer has issued a public warning. Dr. Theresa Tam said there are measles outbreaks in Quebec and Ontario. Tam says the initial infection was travel-related, but the virus has since spread to others who were exposed.
“The majority of measles cases reported in Canada occur among unvaccinated people, many of whom are children, including infants under one who have not yet had the opportunity to be vaccinated. It is crucial for all people in Canada to ensure they are fully vaccinated against measles. Measles is a highly contagious, airborne disease that can lead to serious health complications. Severe complications, while rare, include respiratory failure, encephalitis (swelling of the brain), and death.”
Measles is extremely infectious and can race through unvaccinated populations very quickly.
“I’m concerned that vaccination rates for measles among children are not high enough in some areas of Canada to prevent the spread of measles.”
The COVID pandemic and vaccine skepticism have led to a decline in vaccination rates among children across the country.
The World Health Organization estimates that more than 60 million children’s lives have been saved by the measles vaccine since the year 2000.
🇨🇦🇲🇽🇪🇺 Trade War 🇺🇸
🇺🇸/ 🇩🇰🌍
Let the trade wars begin. US President Donald Trump has unleashed punitive tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, which will drive up prices for Americans. However, retaliatory tariffs by the impacted countries will likely be announced quickly; both Canada and Mexico have already unveiled retaliatory tariffs, and the resulting trade wars will have global repercussions. Here in Denmark, Dansk Industri has done an analysis that shows the punitive duties already imposed by the White House and will result in Denmark’s GDP dropping by about 23 million kroner by 2027. That would roughly equate to around 6,000 lost jobs.
🇫🇮/ 🇺🇸
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo called the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada and Mexico “a very serious situation.”
“We have already seen that he is implementing these trade policy threats. But we have not seen any concrete announcement yet [regarding the EU]. It is essential now that we in the EU act in a strong, united, decisive manner, coordinate our actions, and consider the negotiation framework.”
Orpo says the possible showdown on trade with Trump will be the subject up for discussion at an informal summit of EU leaders later today.
🇺🇸
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal called Donald Trump’s trade war with Mexico and Canada “the dumbest in history.”
“Apart from China, Trump's justification for the economic attack on our neighbours makes no sense.”
The newspaper also ridiculed Trump’s comments that the United States doesn’t need to import any goods from Canada or Mexico and thus is self-sufficient.
“This is not a world we live in, or one that we want to live in, and Trump will soon find out.”
🇬🇱🇩🇰 Greenland🇺🇸
🇩🇰🇬🇱🇫🇴
As US President Donald Trump demands that Greenland should belong to the United States, not uncoincidentally, Denmark is suddenly taking a renewed interest in Arctic defense. Last week, a majority in the Danish parliament agreed on a new Arctic defense agreement. The plan, with a 14.6 billion Danish kroner price tag, will include the acquisition of three new Arctic-ready warships, long-range surveillance drones, and strengthened satellite and other sensor capacity to keep tabs on the waters around Greenland.
The agreement also specifies that more initiatives are coming. Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands all agree that "the security policy situation requires further initiatives.” More announcements expanding on that are expected this summer.
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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spent last week looking to build a united front against US President Donald Trump on trade, but more importantly for Frederiksen, to ensure broad European support for Denmark in opposition to Trump’s desire to take over Greenland. She began with an all-day meeting followed by dinner with fellow heads of state and Nordic neighbours from Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Then she headed to Germany to meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, followed by France for a sit-down with President Emmanuel Macron, followed by a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
🇺🇸/ 🇩🇰
US Vice President JD Vance added three more fuel to the fire over the weekend. Speaking to Fox News, Vance said that taking over Greenland is “an opportunity” while also throwing Denmark under the bus.
“It is really important for our national security. There are shipping routes that China and Russia use. Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job well enough and is not a good ally.”
Baltic Sea Security
🇱🇻🇳🇴
Last Thursday, the Norwegian Coast Guard detained a ship called ‘Silver Dania’ at the request of Latvian prosecutors. The ship was brought to port in Tromsø for a going over. The ship is owned by a Norwegian company and sails under a Norwegian flag, but its crew is entirely Russian. Latvian authorities suspected it, or someone on the ship, was involved in the cable break of a week ago in the Baltic. The Silver Dania crossed the scene of the crime at about the same time as the Vezhen, which has been detained by Swedish authorities.
However, by Saturday morning the ‘Silver Dania’ was allowed to continue her voyage to Murmansk. A spokesperson for the Norwegian Police, Ronny Jørgensen, told NRK that nothing was found linking the ship to the cable break but that the investigation continues.
🇸🇪
The sabotage investigation of the recently seized bulk carrier Vezhen is continuing with several agencies, including the Swedish Coast Guard, involved. As of late last week, Swedish authorities were still onboard the ship, giving it a thorough going over. The vessel, the prime suspect in the damage of an undersea data cable between Latvia and the Swedish island of Gotland, remains anchored off the coast near Karlskrona.
Coast Guard Spokesperson Mattias Lindholm:
“Swedish authorities are on site, including the Coast Guard. We assist in the preliminary investigation because we have knowledge and experience with ships.”
Footage from Swedish media show clear damage to the ship’s anchor. The ship is owned by a Bulgarian company that says the whole thing is not sabotage but rather just an accident.
CEO Alexander Kaltjev spoke to Swedish Radio News:
“We did not drop the anchor intentionally; due to heavy weather, the stoppages of the anchor were broken, and the anchor ran out by itself.”
The ship’s owners have gone to Stockholm District Court to demand the ship be released.
When it was detained the ship was on its way out of the Baltic after leaving a Russian port where it was loaded with fertilizer.
🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺
🇸🇪 🇺🇦
Sweden has announced its biggest military donation to Ukraine yet. The 13.5 billion Swedish kroner package (about $1.7 billion CAN) will supply Ukraine with long-range missiles, drones, fast attack boats, trucks, ammunition, and anti-tank weapons, among other things.
Defense Minister Pål Jonson:
“It is the largest military support package that Sweden has given to Ukraine since the full-scale invasion broke out. Roughly 45% of the package ($534 million USD) will be used for new production from the defense industry to Ukraine's armed forces. This can be directed towards prioritized needs, such as artillery, long-range strike abilities, and drones. A short delivery time is important.”
$178 million will go to the ‘Danish model,’ where the money is used to procure weapons directly from the Ukrainian defense industry.
“This also builds sustainability and resilience within Ukraine.”
The rest of the donation will see millions of dollars flow to things like a variety of training programs for Ukrainian troops, repairing and maintaining equipment already donated, other international funds that provide Ukraine with aid, and an expansion of training provided by the Swedish Defense University.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quick to say a big thank you to Sweden.
"We appreciate that this military support meets the urgent needs of the Ukrainian army and contributes significantly to strengthening our defense capabilities. The strengthening of our long-range capabilities and investment in weapons production in Ukraine are invaluable."
🇸🇪🇲🇩/ 🇷🇺
Not done there, Sweden also announced a military aid package for Moldova. The $1.17 million donation includes anti-tank weapons.
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said the donation is a blunt message to Russia.
“Moldova is a target of repeated Russian influence campaigns, and it is in Europe’s security interest to help Moldova get stronger and safer. Increasing our engagement with countries within the EU’s Eastern Partnership, such as Moldova, is a key part of Sweden’s policy to constrain Russia. This policy aims to constrain Russia’s influence, freedom of action, and ability to do harm.”
Last year, Sweden and Moldova signed a letter of intent to deepen cooperation on security and defense.
🇫🇮🇺🇦
Finland is sending Ukraine another weapons donation, its 27th to date. As is the Finnish custom, the Ministry of Defense is not revealing any details about what the package contains. All we know is that it is worth almost €200 million.
Minister of Defense Antti Häkkänen:
“We are providing exactly the kind of support that will help Ukraine defend itself in an increasingly acute situation at the front. Our support must not be weakened, but on the contrary, at this very moment the support must be further strengthened. I have discussed this with my Nordic colleagues this week, and everyone has the same view.”
Finland has been a major supporter of Ukraine and ranked among the top ten donors of military aid to Ukraine last year. It provided more, as a percentage of GDP, than Germany, Sweden, and even the United States.
🇫🇮
The war in Ukraine and a deteriorating security situation in Europe are not only driving a massive increase in defense spending; they are also fueling a resurrection of weapons and explosive-making facilities across Europe. In Denmark, a long-closed ammunition factory is in the process of restarting production. Now Finland’s government is partnering with Finnish explosives manufacturer Forcit on a major TNT factory. Currently, there is only one facility in Europe making TNT explosives, crucial for ammunition production, and it is in Poland.
Finnish Defence Minister Antti Häkkänen says a lack of TNT has led to challenges producing ammunition, artillery, and mortar shells.
"I considered that the best solution is to build a plant in Finland so that the Finnish defence industry and security of supply can be strengthened at the same time. This new TNT plant will respond to the shortage of explosives throughout Europe and the problems this shortage causes for ammunition production. The project, led by the Ministry of Defence, will play an important role in increasing the production of ammunition in Europe. The investment will also enable Finland to continue its support for Ukraine in the long term.”
The Ministry of Defense signed a letter of intent with Forcit to buy TNT, giving the facility a firm fiscal boost. The procurement deal is worth at least €255 million.
🇩🇰
Denmark is continuing its snail-like pace in upgrading warships to better detect hostile submarines. Currently, its two submarine-hunting frigates do not meet NATO standards for submarine detection and countermeasures. A 2018 political agreement was supposed to address the need to upgrade the two Absalon-class frigates, but just last week, seven years on, a supplier has been selected to upgrade the vessels.
Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:
“In light of the current foreign and security policy situation, I am happy that a decision has now been made on who will supply towed sonar systems for our frigates.”
However, the Ministry of Defense notes that the acquisition and installation of the new towed sonar arrays will still take “a number of years.”
🇳🇱
The Netherlands will deliver more F-16s to Ukraine this year, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. The Netherlands has promised to donate 24 of the fighter jets to Ukraine to help it modernize its air force. The first batch of warplanes was transferred to Ukraine last October. Denmark also sent Ukraine its first batch of F-16s last summer. While countries have not been shy about saying how many total F-16s they will donate, they all have decided to be uniformly mum on how many jets are being delivered when.
The Netherlands will also train Ukrainian personnel to be able to repair and maintain the fighter jets.
🇷🇴/ 🇷🇺
Romania’s Armed Forces scrambled F-16 fighter jets last week as Russian attack drones bound for Ukraine flew close to Romanian airspace again. According to the Ministry of Defense, the jets were in the air for several hours, and the drones did not enter Romanian airspace. Romania has suffered several instances of Russian attack drones violating its airspace over the last year.
🇳🇱/ 🇷🇺
ING Bank has sold its Russian business to a Moscow-based financial investor. The Dutch bank has been scaling down operations in Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Since the invasion, the bank has been building a firewall between it and its Russian business and now has cut the cord entirely by selling it off. The bank did not reveal any financial details of the sale.
🇫🇮🇺🇦
A collaboration between Finland and Ukraine on military drones seems to have borne fruit. Insta, a Finnish company, has unveiled what it calls a ‘Steel Eagle’ drone developed in collaboration with Ukraine. The drone is capable of flying long distances carrying an explosive charge. It is also immune from current drone countermeasures.
🇫🇮🇳🇴🇸🇪
While Sweden and Norway are beginning efforts to stockpile grain due to the war in Ukraine disrupting global grain markets, Finland is headed in the other direction. The Finnish National Emergency Supply Agency (NESA) will reduce grain reserves beginning this spring. Currently, Finland stockpiles about nine months worth of grain. That will soon be reduced to six months worth.
The move has caused concern from agricultural groups who say it could cause market disruptions. It also seems to be going against the grain, as it were, as the other Nordic countries amp up preparedness efforts over concerns about the deteriorating security situation and the possibility of war.
🇫🇮/ 🇺🇸
US President Donald Trump’s demand that NATO member nations increase defense spending to 5% of their GDP is not going over well in Finland.
Parliamentary Defense Committee Chair Jukka Kopra spoke to Helsingin Sanomat:
"It is a significant and probably nearly impossible financial effort for some European NATO member countries.”
Kopra suggests that it would be in Finland’s best interest to treat Trump’s demand for what is likely a negotiating tactic and push for a 3% target. Even then, an increase to 3% would mean that Finland would have to boost its defense spending by €1.9 billion a year.
Another MP on the committee, Mika Kari, echoed the sentiment and pointed out that Trump’s push for an increase is just an effort to boost America’s weapons manufacturing industry.
"Of course, Trump must be counting on the fact that the 5% level would mean a pretty hefty order book for the US for defense equipment.”
At the moment, 23 of NATO’s 32 member nations have met the current target of spending 2% of their GDP on defense. Even then, some of those countries are using creative math while boosting defense spending to historically high levels to get there.
🇩🇪
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who faces a federal election this month, is also urging NATO member nations and EU countries as a whole to increase defense spending. Scholz cited the threat posed by Russia and its hybrid warfare tactics, particularly multiple cases of sabotaged undersea cables in the Baltic, as the reason why Europe should be preparing for the worst.
🇩🇪🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
While European sanctions have targeted Russia’s oil, its LNG continues to find its way into Europe. A report from the group German Environmental Aid noted that as Germany turns its back on Russian oil, it now imports six times the amount of natural gas that it used to. The rub is that LNG from Russia continues to flow into the EU indirectly, usually by ship. LNG carriers discharge their cargo in one of two trading centres located in France or Belgium. It is then piped into the European network, making its way to countries across the EU. While incoming LNG shipments are tracked, once the gas enters the European gas network, it is no longer possible to tell who is using gas from where. Several groups have estimated that indirect LNG shipments from Russia account for somewhere between 3% and 9.2% of total German gas imports.
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
As the EU looks to find more ways to hit Russia where it hurts, it is turning its attention to agricultural exports from both Russia and Belarus. Reportedly, the European Union is considering imposing tariffs on agricultural products from both countries. This would include fertilizers, an export that has so far flown under the radar of sanctions levied against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
The idea of tariffs instead of further sanctions is also a new approach for the EU. The reason why is that unlike sanctions, which require unanimous support from all 27 member nations, tariffs require only a simple majority to enact. 15 member nations covering 65% of the EU’s population. This would get around arduous backroom politics as the pro-Russian Hungarian government constantly tries to roadblock, or water down, efforts to impose further sanctions.
The EU is also looking at the possibility of a gradual ban on Russian aluminium exports. Russia is the second largest exporter of aluminium in the world. The EU has already reduced the amount of Russian aluminium it imports and imposed sanctions on different individual aluminium products.
Apparently, the EU might also ban the export of video game consoles to Russia. European officials suspect Moscow is using hardware in the consoles on military attack drones. The ban would even include game controllers.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas:
“We investigate all kinds of things that help Russia make war. Also game consoles, because apparently these are the ones they use to control drones.”
Computer and video game companies like Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo stopped sales to Russia shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Sanctions would instead focus on traders and the secondary markets.
Odds & Ends
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Denmark’s new airfare tax has budget airliner Ryanair throwing a fit. The airline is blasting Denmark as being “hopelessly uncompetitive” as it closes its air base at Billund airport and terminates all flights to and from Aalborg airport.
The phased-in tax equates to a surcharge of 30 Danish kroner for airfare from Denmark to destinations within Europe. It increases to 300 kroner for international destinations. The tax gradually increases until 2030.
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Preparedness for war or other major crises continues to be a major focus in Denmark. In Aarhus, Denmark’s second biggest city, the municipality is stocking up on food and water specifically for long-term health facilities, senior care homes, and others in residential care in the event of a crisis. The city’s goal is to have a minimum of three days worth of food and water for each resident. The initiative will cost between 2.4 and 3.6 million kroner (roughly $480,000 to $720,000 CAD).
Last year, the Danish Emergency Management Agency urged everyone in the country to ensure they are prepared for a crisis with the expectation they can be self-sufficient for at least three days.
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People in Denmark are putting more money into their savings than ever before. Denmark’s National Bank says that in December total deposits increased by 63 billion Danish kroner. Experts note that on one hand, wage increases and low unemployment have translated to better household finances and more savings; on the other hand, widespread uncertainty about unfolding world events has made people more focused on padding their savings.
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The possibility of passenger rail traffic between Finland and Sweden moved a little closer to becoming reality, but plenty of challenges remain. On the Finnish side, the last 20 kilometres of rail line in Lapland to the northern Swedish border have been upgraded and electrified. Work is now underway to figure out next steps to actually get passenger rail running between Tornio, Finland, and neighbouring Haparanda, Sweden.
One of the hurdles is the different rail gauge in Finland compared to Sweden. Rail tracks in Finland are wider than they are in Sweden and elsewhere across Europe. Figuring out how to bridge rail traffic from one type of track to the other remains a work in progress.
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As of April 2, the UK will require an ETA (electronic travel authorization) for most arriving travellers with the exceptions of UK citizens, dual citizens, people with a work visa, and students who have a student visa. In order to enter the UK, all other travellers will need to pony up £10 to apply online for an ETA before they travel. An ETA is required to enter the country, but it also doesn’t guarantee entry as the usual border control caveats apply. An ETA in most cases is valid for a two-year period.