Monday Morning News & Notes
Global COVID numbers plunge. A 1st of its kind long-COVID study.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🌍 🦠
COVID numbers continue to plummet around the world, according to the latest weekly pandemic update from the World Health Organization. In a 28-day period ending February 19, there were nearly 5.3 million new confirmed infections (-89%), and over 48,000 more lives were lost to the virus (-62%).
“Current trends in reported COVID cases are underestimates of the true number of global infections and reinfections. This is partly due to the reduction in testing and delays in reporting in many countries.”
Across the six WHO regions, only the Eastern Mediterranean saw pandemic deaths increase (+18%). While they declined in the Western Pacific Region (-77%), the South-East Asia Region (-62%), the African Region (-52%), the European Region (-50%), and the Americas (-14%).
At the country level, the United States continues to be a coronavirus hot spot recording the most new infections (1,113,228/ -31%) and pandemic deaths (13,517/ +1%) of any nation on earth. COVID deaths also jumped in Australia, with 2,179 more lives lost (+107%). Japan, with 1,095,815 infections (-71%) and 6,536 more deaths (-33%), and China, with 635,433 infections (-98%) and 9,945 fatalities (-86%), also both continue to be countries of concern.
The WHO says the Omicron variant, and its sub-strains continue to dominate globally. Of those, the recombinant XBB variants are on the rise going from 13.8%, of which positive sequenced tests are still being done, to 38.3% in the last five weeks. The majority of that growth, 29.6%, was the XBB.1.5 strain. The new XBF variant made up 1.5% of cases. In this 28-day reporting period, there were a mere 67,250 sequenced positive tests submitted to the global virus genome database, GISAID.
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One of the World Health Organizations’ pandemic experts is laying out a map for how to exit the COVID pandemic this year. But, a lot of the requirements on the table are being completely ignored by countries around the world.
Infectious Disease Epidemiologist and WHO COVID Technical Lead, Maria Van Kerkhove:
“What we are asking all the member states, all the countries around the world, to do is to reassess their situation. Have a fresh look at what you are doing and look at what needs to be adjusted. We need to strengthen the systems in countries around surveillance. We need to strengthen the systems in countries around sequencing. We need to strengthen the clinical care pathway so that any individual if they are infected with flu, RS virus, or COVID, so they get into that clinical care pathway, they receive antiviral treatments as soon as possible. So we prevent hospitalization. If patients need hospitalization we need to optimize that care with the right therapeutics, oxygen, ventilation, so that we save lives. We prioritize and focus our vaccination campaigns to ensure we reach 100% of the at-risk groups. 100% of individuals need to be boosted who are over 60, who have underlying health conditions, or who are immunocompromised, and our frontline healthcare workers. We use the tools that we can in terms of masking, improving ventilation, where we live, we work, we study.”
Kerkhove also called for innovation around personal protective equipment to accommodate the needs of women, who make up the majority of healthcare staff around the world.
She also urges pharmaceutical companies to get new and updated vaccines into the world. Vaccines that prevent infection and transmission of the virus from one person to another.
“And we really need to build trust.”
For months, the WHO has been calling for increased coronavirus surveillance, more testing, and for countries to increase genome sequencing of positive test results. Instead, many countries worldwide, including Denmark, Sweden, Norway, and Finland, are doing the exact opposite.
🇪🇺🦠
The pandemic situation across Europe remains stable, according to the latest pandemic snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. It says infection numbers, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and deaths all remain at low levels “compared to data from the past 12 months.”
But potential signs of trouble persist. The number of infections among vulnerable seniors increased in 12 out of 26 countries reporting age-related case data, including Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, and the Netherlands. Out of the 20 countries reporting hospital and intensive care admissions, six (Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Malta, Slovakia, and the Netherlands) saw increasing hospitalizations, and four (Austria, Lithuania, Romania, and Germany) recorded rising ICU occupancy.
Pandemic deaths continued to drop across the European Union and the greater European Economic Area, with 804 lives lost last week across the European Union and the greater European Economic Area. The 14-day death rate per million population rose in five countries (Portugal, Latvia, Cypress, Czech Republic, and Belgium).
Uptake for a 2nd COVID vaccine booster dose continues to be lackluster in Europe, with 17.2% of those 18 years old and older having a 4th dose; coverage among vulnerable seniors is just 34.4%, which equals coverage of just 14.1% across the entire population.
Just ten countries in Europe are testing and sequencing in numbers large enough to derive any useful data. Of those, the BQ.1 variant came back in 35.8% of cases, XBB.1.5 accounted for 22.2%, and BA.2.75 accounted for 20.2%. A new sub-variant, BA.4c, showed up in 31 infections (0.5%).
🇩🇰
A new study has found that while overall COVID vaccination uptake in Denmark was extremely high, there were “marked differences” within different socioeconomic groups. The study was done by the Danish Statens Serum Institute using population-level data covering Denmark’s coronavirus vaccination campaign.
The study found that non-vaccination rates were higher among young people, immigrants, those descended from immigrants, people with lower education levels, and people on the lower end of the income scale. Vaccination rates among people living alone or who were single also lagged behind.
Specifically, the study found vaccination rates were lower among 12 to 15-year-olds (70%), 16 to 24-year-olds (82%), and those 25 to 34 years old (75.7%). Among immigrant populations, vaccination coverage was low among both those emigrating from western countries (68.5%) and those from non-western nations (73.9%).
Taking a closer look at variations among immigrant populations, the institute found those 16 to 34 years old from non-western countries with primary school as their highest education level had a vaccination rate of just 41%. The same immigrant group with a master’s or Ph.D. had a vaccination rate of 69%.
“However, the highest vaccine uptake within all educational levels in descendants of non-western immigrants is lower than the lowest vaccine uptake in Danish individuals regardless of educational level.”
The institute concludes that in future vaccination campaigns, there needs to be targeted multilingual vaccination awareness efforts and other specific outreach strategies.
The study in full can be found HERE.
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Over the last seven days, infection trends in Denmark have remained more or less in line with what we have seen for a number of months now. Keep in mind coronavirus case numbers are an extremely unreliable statistic due to extremely low testing numbers.
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However, COVID hospitalizations have seen a shift with a surge in elderly seniors over 80 being admitted to hospital due to an infection. Over the past few months, it has been the 65 to 79-year-old age group that has suffered the highest number of hospitalizations. Still, in the last seven days 69% of all pandemic-related hospitalizations have been seniors 65 years old and older. The percentage jumps to 90% if you include the 40 to 64-year-old age group.
🇸🇪
The Swedish Public Health Agency has issued one of its increasingly sporadic pandemic updates. It says infection activity is on the decline, with cases falling among vulnerable seniors in care with coronavirus-related hospitalizations also declining. The agency says COVID deaths are also falling, and excess mortality, which it doesn’t report to European health authorities, has returned to “normal levels.” In all cases, it does not provide a single number or any other data.
State Epidemiologist Anders Lindblom:
“We now know that we will have to continue living with COVID, and Sweden, like the rest of the world, needs to continue to follow pandemic developments closely. The vaccine still has very good protection against the risk of severe infection. There is also good immunity throughout the population.”
The health agency says influenza remains a concern, with case numbers relatively unchanged week to week. Fly-related intensive care admissions increased last week. Influenza deaths are “at an unchanged level.”
“It has been several years since the spread of influenza B was so extensive, and this means that there are many in the population who are susceptible, not least children.”
RS virus cases fell by 10% last week, but the health authority cautioned there are variations across the different Swedish regions. Importantly, RS virus infections among children under four have decreased across the country. It also adds, “many patients have been in intensive care during the season.”
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Pressure on Swedish intensive care units was lower during the period when the Omicron variant was dominant than in other infection wave. This is according to an investigation by the Swedish Public Health Agency. It says this is due to Omicron causing less severe infections and population-level immunity due to previous infection and vaccination to that point.
The health agency says it took a deep dive into pandemic data and determined that Alpha and especially Delta variant infection waves caused a “sharp increase” in hospitalizations and ICU admissions. But, when the Omicron variant arrived in December of 2021, the pattern changed, with COVID-related admissions declining and admissions due to other non-pandemic reasons increasing.
State Epidemiologist Anders Lindblom:
“If there is a large infection spread in society, it also leads to more people needing hospital care. The Omicron variant was highly contagious, but a lower proportion [of the population] suffered severe infections. Also, When Omicron took over there was better protection in the population thanks to the fact that many were vaccinated and more had been exposed to the virus.”
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In what might be a first-of-its-kind study, researchers in Linköping, Sweden, have studied long-COVID impacts two years after infection. The study included all patients with severe infections requiring hospitalization. The group was again four months after being discharged from the hospital and then again two years later. Of the 433 severely infected people involved, 185 (40%) were still experiencing persistent long-COVID symptoms 24 months later.
Of the 185 people struggling with long-COVID, the study found 181 were still alive two years later, and of those, 165 agreed to participate in a follow-up. About half of the group who were on long-COVID related sick leave four months after being hospitalized were still on sick leave two years later. The most common symptoms they were still struggling with were fatigue, cognitive issues, and sensory or motor skills problems.
Of the 165, 35 (21%) had been hospitalized at least once, if not more, since being discharged two years earlier. The reasons for readmission ranged from cardiovascular problems to respiratory issues, more coronavirus infections, and blood or skin ailments.
The study concludes that long-term care routines need to be established for people suffering from long-COVID, particularly those who were hospitalized, to ensure follow-up and treatment.
You can find the study HERE.
🇪🇺
The pandemic has resulted in a majority of European cities shrinking as they lost population. A University of Oxford study claims that 93% of major metropolitan areas in Europe saw a decline in the number of residents during the pandemic.
The population shock was particularly acute during the first year of the pandemic, where the study says European cities flipped from a +0.3% population growth to see a 0.3% reduction. The study says virtually every city in Europe with over 500,000 residents saw its population shrink in 2020.
The reasons include an almost complete stop to net migration due to strict lockdowns and a virtual halt to international travel. This combined with people fleeing crowded cities for what they felt were safer places.
But, the study says the sheer number of pandemic deaths was also particularly devastating, especially for smaller cities.
University of Oxford Urban Development Associate Professor Dr. Vlad Mykhnenko says the study’s findings were a big surprise.
“Our study shows during the pandemic, out-migration from European cities was as sudden as it was substantial, causing even the largest cities to shrink. It had seemed general human inertia and high costs associated with moving would prevent a mass exodus from cities during the pandemic, but 63% of all cities experienced shrinkage. I was not expecting that.”
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
People in Denmark continue to take the energy crisis to heart as Denmark saw record energy savings last month. The Danish Energy Agency says electricity use across the country was reduced by 13% in January, while gas use was down by 26% compared to normal usage. The agency says January set a record for electricity savings of any month over the past year.
While the unusually warm winter weather certainly played a significant role, the agency says households alone reduced energy use by over 20% in January. This follows 15% energy savings in each of the last three months of 2022.
Deputy Director Martin Hansen:
“The Danes have taken their good energy-saving habits into the new year. Therefore, we have, so far, weathered the winter well. A continued stable supply situation depends on us maintaining good saving habits even if we face cooler temperatures. Over the spring and summer, the gas reserves must be filled up so that we are prepared for next winter. The layoff season, which runs until and including April, is not over yet either, so it is important that we maintain good saving behavior.”
The Danish Energy Agency is now cautiously indicating that this winter’s energy crisis might be over as energy supplies are stable and gas reserves are fuller than is typical for this time of year. That said, it cautions the weather is unpredictable and can change quickly.
🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺
Tensions between Poland and Russia are rising. Oil flowing from Russia into Poland through the Druzhba pipeline has stopped as Russia continues to weaponize its energy exports. Polish oil company PKN Orlen confirmed the news. But, it shrugs off the development as not being a problem because Russian oil makes up a very small share of Poland’s oil and gas imports.
Company Director Daniel Obajtek:
“Russia has stopped the supply [of oil] to Poland. We are prepared for this. Only ten percent of the crude oil comes from Russia, and we will replace it with oil from other import sources.”
🇫🇮
Another example of how record-breaking warm winter weather saved Europe from the energy crisis can be found in Finland because of unseasonably warm temperatures, fewer Finnish households have applied for subsidies or tax deductions on their electricity bills. Finland’s Social Insurance Agency recorded around 1,400 household applications for help with their energy bills. Of those, it says it has so far approved 320 applications. The Finnish Tax Administration says it has received around 1,500 applications for electricity bill-related deductions. When energy prices shot into the stratosphere last fall, the Finnish government estimated that hundreds of thousands of households apply for one or both of the financial aid options.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇪🇺/ 🇷🇺
The European Union has hammered out a tenth round of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell confirmed the news in a tweet on Friday night.
Borrell said the sanctions include measures aimed at Russia’s horrific practice of forcibly deporting Ukrainian children, children he says Russia must return.
“As part of our listings, we are targeting those responsible for the deportation and forced adoption of at least 6.000 Ukrainian children. This is a clear violation of international law, including the Geneva convention, as I raised at UN Security Council yesterday.”
The sanctions add about 120 Russians and Russian entities, including two media outlets, Russian decision-makers, military leaders, and government officials who are “complicit in the war against Ukraine.” Also added to the list of sanctioned Russians are those the EU says are key figures “involved in the kidnapping of Ukrainian children to Russia.” They also target Iranians who are working to deliver drones to Russia.
The sanctions also target people and organizations waging a war of misinformation that is “polluting the public space with misinformation.”
Export restrictions have been expanded to include electronic components used in Russian drones, missiles, helicopters, and other machinery of war. Bans have also been placed on things like thermal cameras, heavy trucks, snowmobiles, binoculars, radars, construction goods, and a host of parts, pumps, and machinery Russia uses for its war machine.
Sanctions have also been placed on three more Russian banks that will now have their assets frozen.
Interestingly, a shipping company in an unnamed country outside the European Union has been sanctioned because it is “suspected of helping Russia circumvent sanctions on oil exports.” The EU is also cracking down on private flights between the European Union and Russia.
EU says sanctions now include nearly half of European exports to Russia in 2021.
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen blasted Russia’s President in a speech in front of the Russian embassy, and in front of the Russian ambassador, in Copenhagen on Friday. Frederiksen gave the speech as part of activities marking the first anniversary of Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine.
“On February 24, last year, the mask slipped. We saw Putin's true face. A brutality and viciousness that we thought belonged to the past. Undemocratic, inhumane, and out of touch. Putin has definitively turned his back on the international community and turned his back on the international world order, which has ensured our peace and our security for decades.”
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The website for Denmark’s capital region, Region Hovedstaden, was hit with a suspected DDoS attack, temporarily knocking it offline over the weekend. The website was back up and running as of Sunday afternoon. DR is reporting that a pro-Russian hacker group calling themselves ‘Anonymous Sudan’ have claimed responsibility for the attack on the messaging service, Telegram.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Danish municipalities continue to struggle with finding housing for Ukrainian refugees. A report from the Danish Red Cross, the Regions, and the Danish Refugee Council found steep challenges in getting refugees into housing. The report says 80% of Denmark’s municipalities have dealt with severe housing challenges.
Odense Kommune Jobs Manager Lotte Saxdorff Brinkmann spoke to DR to say she is not surprised by the report as she sees the reality daily.
“We have received over 1,000 refugees in Odense alone, and you don't have housing for that overnight. So we are dependent on someone continuing to live in temporary accommodation.”
Ukrainian refugees are primarily women, many with children because men of fighting age were restricted from leaving the country and had to stay and fight instead. This has created a unique challenge because, according to the report, the women’s subsidy is too low, making it challenging to find housing that meets their budget.
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
Sweden has joined a coalition of countries supplying Ukraine with more modern Leopard tanks. On Friday, Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson announced a new weapons package for Ukraine including 10 Leopard 2 A5 battle tanks.
“The Russian military advance must be stopped. Right now, it is Ukraine that is Europe's shield against this advance. Ukraine's war is, therefore, also our war. The biggest threat to Europe and Sweden's security would be a Russian victory in Ukraine. It would have a catastrophic geostrategic, security policy, and military consequences. That cannot and must not happen.”
In addition, Sweden is also sending 50 CV90 armoured fighting vehicles.
“This will significantly strengthen the armed forces of Ukraine.”
It is also donating HAWK air defense systems and ammunition worth several hundred million euros.
Sweden will also donate a substantial amount of HAWK air defence system components and ammunition. The components and ammunition is worth several hundred million euros.
“HAWK is a medium-range system that defends against enemy aircraft, helicopters, and missiles. This donation can help Ukraine strengthen its air defences in multiple places and help deny Russia access to [Ukraine] airspace.”
And it has also partnered with Germany to send Ukraine IRIS-T air defense systems.
Jonson warned the donations do not come without risk to Sweden.
“This support will affect our own defense capability. But it is a risk and a price that is small compared to the price in blood that Ukrainians pay every day.”
🇸🇪/ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳
The risks to Sweden’s security have become broader and more complex, according to an annual review. It states that Sweden’s security situation is currently at its most serious since the 1980s.
With Sweden seeking to join NATO, it is in a precarious grey area where Article 5, the requirement that all NATO countries come to the defense of any other member state under attack, does not yet apply. In the interim, Sweden has bilateral security agreements with several countries including its Nordic neighbours, the United Kingdom, and the United States. While the annual security review says that Russia still wants to avoid a military escalation with the west, “the high level of risk-taking by the Russian leadership creates uncertainty.”
The review says that the intelligence threat against Sweden has increased and become more complex. It isn’t just Russia targeting Sweden, but also China.
Military Intelligence and Security Service Head Lena Hallin:
“Both countries have the ability to carry out complex operations in an attempt to influence Swedish political and economic decisions. Opinion formation and decision-making processes in Sweden, the core of our democracy, are followed closely. Awareness of this threat must increase.”
She says various influence operations against Sweden “are happening here and now.”
“Since the threats are directed at all parts of society, it is crucial that Sweden meets them with a unified national approach both within the state administration, as well as the private business world and society at large. Vigilance, security protection work, and the robustness of our society must be strengthened.”
Hallin adds that Sweden’s intelligence and security services must evolve and work more closely to meet these threats.
🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
Swedish intelligence agency SÄPO has determined that the Kurdish PKK, designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the EU, and the United States, is financing its activities from Sweden. SÄPO doesn’t classify the PKK as posing any direct threat to Sweden itself, but it supports terrorist activity “in another country,” according to Swedish news outlet SVT. Turkey is sure to seize on this report as it adds fuel to its criticisms of Sweden over the Nordic country’s effort to join NATO. Turkey has maintained that it does not believe Sweden is doing enough to crack down on the PKK.
🇭🇺/ 🇸🇪 🇫🇮
Hungary is taking a page out of Turkey’s book and suddenly playing games with Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications. Hungary had initially planned to hold a ratification vote last July, but it has been dragging its feet ever since. The vote has now been pushed to the end of March at the earliest. Hungary’s tune is also suddenly changing. After repeatedly reassuring both Nordic nations they had Hungary’s firm support, suddenly, there are doubts. In the space of a week, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has gone from publicly supporting the two Scandinavian NATO applications to now saying he has concerns. On Friday, Orbán accused Sweden and Finland of spreading “outright lies” about the state of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary.
Of the 30 NATO member countries, just Hungary and Turkey have yet to hold ratification votes on Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications. The two Scandinavian countries need a clean sweep with a ‘yes’ from all 30 countries in order to join the military alliance.
🇩🇪/ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said over the weekend that his country would work with other G7 nations to ensure even more tanks will flow to Ukraine.
“Unfortunately, even after a year of war and bloodshed, I see no effort by Russia to end this criminal war. On the contrary, Putin continues to engage in irresponsible nuclear behaviour and is now calling into question the last disarmament treaty on strategic nuclear weapons, the treaty with the United States.”
Germany is key to the supply of Leopard tanks as they are made in Germany. The country is responsible for issuing re-export permits required to move the tanks from any one European country to another.
🇪🇪/ 🇺🇦
On Sunday, Estonia’s Defense Minister arrived in Kyiv and announced that another weapons package was coming to Ukraine from the Baltic nation. Minister Hanno Pevkur said the latest shipment includes weapons and equipment for Ukraine’s special forces. Estonian media outlet ERR reports that this new aid package includes assault rifles, pistols, drones, thermal imaging cameras, generators, battery chargers, and clothing.
🇱🇹/ 🇺🇦
As the western world took time over the weekend to commemorate the beginning of Russia’s illegal and horrific invasion of Ukraine, people in Lithuania took it a big step further. Lithuanian Foreign Affairs Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis says Lithuania crowdfunded €14 million on the anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. He says that money will go directly to help Ukrainian air defense systems.
🇿🇦 🇷🇺 🇨🇳
A troubling ten-day naval exercise between South Africa, Russia, and China ended over the weekend. Western countries were irate that South Africa agreed to host the exercise due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last week, South Africa abstained from a United Nations vote against Russia over its war in Ukraine.
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦
Canada is doubling its contribution of Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced four more Leopard 2 tanks are headed to Ukraine following four others that arrived in Ukraine earlier this month. Also headed to Ukraine are 5,000 155mm artillery shells and an armoured evacuation vehicle. Canada is also expanding its list of sanctions against Russia.
🇸🇪
A sign of the times. Last year, Sweden recorded the lowest birth rate in the last 20 years. On average, Swedish women gave birth to 1.52 kids in 2022.
Stockholm University Demography Professor Gunnar Andersson told SVT that a bleaker view of the future due to war, inflation, political extremism, and climate change makes young people decide against bringing a child into this world.
“We connect the increased concerns globally with young adults not having their first child. To start a family, you have to have faith in the future.”