Monday Morning News & Notes
COVID cases rising in Europe again. Tensions simmer between Russia and the Baltics.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇪🇺
COVID infection numbers continue to rise across Europe, according to the latest weekly assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The good news is that pandemic death rates continue to drop. The ECDC says coronavirus case numbers is increasing “in a number of countries.” Infections among seniors 65 years old and older are also rising again in several EU nations “together with some severity indicators.”
As noted above, pandemic deaths continue to decrease for a ninth straight week “in almost all countries.” Although at the country level three European countries, Iceland, Norway, and Slovakia, are seeing pandemic fatalities increase.
Of the 28 European countries reporting hospital and/or intensive care admissions and occupancy, 13 have reported increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The ECDC is forecasting that over the next two weeks infection numbers will continue to climb across Europe while COVID hospitalizations and pandemic deaths will remain stable. Although it cautions that due to lackluster testing rates across Europe, any effort to see what the true state of the pandemic is now and over the next few weeks is “increasingly unreliable” and “should be treated with caution.” As you can see from the agency’s map below, a swath of countries are ‘greyed out’ due to testing rates that are so low it cannot get sufficient data to determine the pandemic situation.
Omicron still reigns supreme in Europe, responsible for 90% of all sequenced positive test results last week. Of the Omicron sub-variants, BA.5 is on the rise now coming back in 33.4% of all positive test results. While cases of the BA.2 variant are falling, covering 45% of cases last week. 9.9% of all infections last week were confirmed to be the BA.2 variant with the L452X mutation.
On the vaccination front, 72.6% of the entire European population has two vaccine doses and 52.1% have a booster dose.
🇩🇰
Denmark’s Staten Serum Institute no longer updates COVID numbers over the weekend. It will table three days worth of pandemic data later today.
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While new infections in the last week have been heavily concentrated in the 20 to 79 year old age range, by far the most coronavirus cases continue to be among those 40 to 64 years old.
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Denmark is about to sign a contract for the purchase of a “significant number’ of Paxlovid pills, according to Health Minister Magnus Heunicke. He says the antiviral COVID treatment pills are an “important additional shield” against infection waves ahead this fall and winter.
“Paxlovid has shown very promising results in clinical studies, and the health authorities will be following closely how the effect shows up when it is used. It is my clear expectation that the final EU agreement will fall into place in the near future.”
Heunicke won’t reveal exactly how many pills will be purchased or at what price, citing the sensitivity of contract negotiations. He says the quantity of pills being bought is based on forecasts for fall and winter infection waves. The minister adds the government has also already set aside money for the purchase.
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Region Hovedstaden (Metro Copenhagen) was struggling with NemID issues over the weekend. The region said that technical issues with Denmark’s personal digital key meant that people couldn’t book COVID tests, vaccination appointments, or see test results. While the NemID issues appear to have been resolved by Sunday, the region is reminding people that they can walk-in to testing and vaccination centers to get a COVID test or vaccination in the event of future NemID issues or other technical issues.
You can find the locations and opening hours of Denmark’s vaccination sites HERE.
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There has been a notable decrease in the number of people in Denmark being referred for treatment due to suffering from long-COVID. Long waiting lists still persist in several regions, but DR is reporting that in clinics specializing in long-COVID treatment the pressure is easing.
Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg Hospital Medical Director Kirsten Wisborg:
“When we opened in January 2021, we got about 200 referrals to the clinic at our hospital alone, but now we are down to 20-30 referrals per month. That is a significant decrease.”
At Aarhus University Hospital they are seeing about ten referrals per week, down from 25 at the same point last year.
Ward Doctor Jane Agergaard spoke to DR and said there is one reason in particular for the decline.
“We reckon that this is the effect of the vaccines. Studies show that when you are vaccinated, fewer people get long-COVID.”
People who suffer from long-COVID often experience coronavirus symptoms like exhaustion, shortness of breath, loss of smell, and difficulty concentrating for months after having technically recovered from an infection.
🇳🇴
Influenza rates in Norway continue to plummet after a late spring infection wave arrived. There were nine new influenza-related hospitalizations in week 24, down from 21 the week prior, and 43 the week before that. There has been one new seasonal flu admission to an intensive care unit.
As for other all respiratory infections, there were 1,126 admissions in week 23, a slight drop from each of the two weeks prior. Most, 57%, were lower respiratory tract infections, 13% were upper respiratory tract infections, while coronavirus infections accounted for 28%.
Other than coronavirus, Norwegian health officials are seeing mostly rhinovirus infections, but even that is dropping (-17%).
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Norway’s Crown Prince Haakon has tested positive for COVID. He and the Crown Princess both visited the scene of the Oslo terror attack on Saturday to honor the victims of the shooting and lay down some flowers at the growing memorial. The next day it was announced he had tested positive.
Two people were killed and another eight injured in the shooting that took place close to one of Oslo’s most popular gay and lesbian nightclubs. The man arrested at the scene is a Norwegian citizen and police say he was known to them.
🇩🇪
Like Denmark, Germany is preparing another vaccination campaign for this fall in an effort to head off what is anticipated to be another hefty COVID wave. German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said it would be “ideal” to get 40 million people another booster dose before the winter of the vaccination campaign is going to be effective.
“We have to be very well prepared in the winter or there will be chaos.”
Berlin's Charité Hospital Virologist Christian Drosten, speaking to Der Spiegel, concurs that if there is anything chance of “really changing something” to head off a fall or winter wave, then millions of booster doses need to be administered. Drosten says Germany needs to use all the available means at its disposal to fight the pandemic in the coming winter.
“We should also make full use of the capacities for child vaccination that we have in Germany, which has not happened so far by a long way. Everyone else should have at least three jabs, four if they prefer.”
Health Minister Lauterbach says planning is already well underway for a fall vaccination campaign adding he is already working to secure vaccine supply and has been in touch with vaccine makers.
🌎 💉🦠
COVID vaccines have saved millions of lives, according to a mathematical modeling study published in the medical journal The Lancet. The study authors crunched the numbers for both reported deaths and then separately using excess mortality, the number of deaths over the average in any given year. As we know from the World Health Organization and others is that the ‘real’ pandemic death toll is far greater than what is currently being reported. Right now, around 6.3 million coronavirus deaths have been ‘officially’ reported. But the WHO in May pegged the real number at around 15 million, and other studies have it as high as 21 million lives lost.
Based on reported deaths, the study determined that 14.4 million lives have been saved by COVID vaccines. But, by crunching the numbers using excess mortality, the study found that vaccines are estimated to have saved 19.8 million lives.
While that is obviously something to be celebrated, the study also determined that vaccine inequality especially in middle to lower income countries, came with a terrible cost. It says that if the international COVAX initiative had hit its 20% vaccination coverage target, an additional 45% of deaths could have been averted. There have been more than 3.5 million deaths, and counting, since the vaccination campaign began in December of 2020.
You can take a look at the study HERE.
🇹🇭
Thailand has lifted mask mandates with one exception, the Bangkok metro, where masks must still be worn. As of this past weekend, wearing a face mask is no longer required in all public spaces. The mandate has been in place since mid-2021. Thailand is eager to breathe some life back into its once thriving and lucrative tourism industry.
🇨🇦
Overall COVID hospitalizations in Canada have treaded water from one week to the next. The Public Health Agency of Canada is reporting that in the week ending June 20, the total number of hospital beds being used by coronavirus patients was unchanged at 3,350. Yet, pandemic general admissions edged downward from 3,175 beds used to 3,000. Intensive care? Numbers declined slightly by nine to 166. As for people on a ventilator, there were eight fewer that same week dropping from 86 to 78.
PHAC only updates its COVID statistics once a week every Friday. In the previous seven day span Canada added 15,047 new infections (underreported) while suffering the loss of 137 more lives. Total to-date pandemic deaths are now approaching 42,000.
The seven day positivity percentage was 9.3%.
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So far, the Canadian vaccination campaign has administered 33,609,475 1st vaccine doses (87.90% of the total population) while 31,410,242 people (82.15%) have had a second dose, and of those, 20,463,109 are fully vaccinated with three doses.
🦠Monkeypox🦠
The World Health Organization’s Emergency Committee has decided that the monkeypox outbreak does not merit the designation of being a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.”
The WHO says there are now 3,040 confirmed monkeypox cases across 47 countries. Most of those are countries in the WHO European Region. Of concern, it notes that monkeypox transmission is occurring in many countries that have never reported having any cases before.
It continues to warn that in many cases there are no links to travel to countries that have a history of monkeypox infections. This suggests “that undetected transmission might have been ongoing for some time in those countries.”
The majority of monkeypox cases continue to be men and most are occurring in the gay and bisexual community. The WHO says the monkeypox R0 is estimated to be 0.8, but among communities of gay and bisexual men the R0 is higher than 1.0.
The outbreak has recorded its first monkeypox infection-related death despite very few hospitalizations. The global health agency says the person who died was immunocompromised.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇱🇹 🇪🇪 🇱🇻 🇵🇱/ 🇷🇺
Tensions continue to simmer between Russia, Poland, and the three Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Moscow is still boiling over Lithuania enforcing EU sanctions and choking off supplies to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. Reports say that Russia has informed Lithuania’s chargé d'affaires in Moscow that unless the flow of supplies resumes into Kaliningrad, Russia reserves the right to protect its national interests.
On Saturday, the Estonian military said that a Russian MI-8 helicopter violated Estonian air space and simulated missile attacks as Russia continues to posture along the border.
With that in mind, Poland will ask NATO at the summit in Spain this week to reinforce the Suwalki Gap, the narrow piece of land that connects Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to Poland while also separating Belarus from Kaliningrad.
🇳🇴/ 🇪🇺
Looking to bring down high gas prices and end its reliance on oil and gas from Russia, the European Union is looking to Norway. The two have agreed to strengthen energy ties. Norway is the biggest producer of oil and gas in Europe and contributes heavily to EU energy needs. It currently supplies enough oil and gas to cover a full one-quarter of all European gas use. The EU is also selling Norwegian oil and gas as less CO2 emitting saying that emissions from energy production in the Nordic nations are less than half the global average. It also notes that Norway’s is producing oil and gas at a very high capacity, with all signs pointing to that capacity continuing to increase. It also helps that the Baltic Sea pipeline running from Norway across the North Sea to Poland is scheduled to finish construction and come online this October.
G7/ 🇷🇺
In an effort to put a major crimp in how Russia is financing its war in Ukraine G7 nations, which include Canada, the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, France, and Germany, have banned the export of Russian gold. Russia earned over $15 billion in gold exports last year and has been using gold bullion as a work-around against western sanctions.
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦
Here is one unexpected example of the sheer number of Ukrainian refugees that have arrived in Denmark. Aarhus University has, in record time, published a brand new Ukrainian/Danish dictionary and the initial 650 copies sold out extremely quickly. And demand seems to be continuing to outstrip supply as another 1,400 orders are already placed for the next printing. Since February, almost 24,000 Ukrainian refugees have been granted residency in Denmark.
🇩🇰/ 🇱🇻 🇷🇺
More Danish troops are headed to the Baltic states to shore up NATO forces along the border with Russia. The battalion, with about 800 troops, support units, and staff, is headed for Latvia.
Defense Minister Morten Bødskov:
“We stand shoulder to shoulder with our allies in NATO, and are ready to take responsibility for our common security. Our strength contribution to Latvia is a clear signal of this. And a signal to Russia that we are ready to defend every inch of the alliance's territory.”
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin says this is the last chance for Europe to make the transition away from Russian oil and gas and end the leverage it gives Russia over Europe.
“I think it is very likely that Russia will use gas and energy as blackmail towards EU countries. That is why Finland has been very consistent when it comes to sanctions. I think we should get rid of Russian energy as soon as possible, because Russia will use it as a tool as a weapon against us.”
Marin says that Finland has been diversifying its energy sources for quite some time now and isn’t going to suffer to the degree others will as Russia turns off the taps.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪 🇹🇷 NATO
Ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Spain, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin says both her country and Sweden fulfill all requirements to join NATO. But while her hope is that both countries will be admitted this week, they are still in talks with Turkey, who is objecting to the NATO applications as leverage to try and gain concessions from the two Nordic nations.