Monday Morning News & Notes
Energy Crisis fears deferred. Seniors most at COVID risk in Denmark.
⚡️Energy Crisis⚡️
🇩🇰
The worst fears of what the colder months would bring during an energy crisis in Europe have so far not come to fruition, thanks in large part to an unseasonably warm fall. While we are far from being out of the woods yet, a number of factors have led to an unexpected shift for the better when it comes to energy bills.
Danske Bank told TV2 that electricity bills for an average family in Denmark have fallen by more than half from August to October. For the first time since May, the average weekly cost for electricity in the Nordics fell below the 80 øre mark. Overall, energy prices in October were roughly in line with prices last autumn before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis in Europe.
Green Power Denmark Chief Consultant Kristian Rune Paulson spoke to Ritzau to say while the weather has certainly been a factor, it is not the only thing driving down energy costs.
“Gas prices have almost collapsed because of the success in filling up Europe's gas reserves. This means that power plants that run on gas and produce electricity can buy the gas more cheaply. Another important reason is the autumn weather. Windy weather has helped bring electricity prices down. The same has happened with the rainy weather in Norway, where the reservoirs in the hydropower plants are being filled up again after a long drought.”
The unseasonably warm fall has also translated to much less demand for gas and electricity for heating homes. While all of this is good news, we aren’t in the clear yet, with the official start to winter well over a month away, we still have to see what hand Old Man Winter deals us.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Complicated, that is the best word to describe Russian natural gas exports to Finland. Ever since the Russian government demanded that payments for its gas exports to European countries be made in rubles, as opposed to the contractually agreed to euros, it has halted pipeline deliveries to countries that didn’t comply, including Finland. But that doesn’t mean Russian gas isn’t flowing into Finland as deliveries by tankers have continued.
Further complicating things is that, according to a report from Yle, arbitration between Gazprom, the Russian state energy company, and Gasum, the Finnish state company, could reach a settlement on the ruble issue this month. Depending on the outcome of the arbitration, Finland could be forced to resume buying gas by pipeline. Gasum has a long term “take or pay” contract for Russian gas meaning that it must buy a certain amount of gas and if it doesn’t it still has to pay for it.
Finland could pull the plug on its contract for Russian gas if the state were to levy an embargo or if the EU places a sanction on Russian gas, which it currently doesn’t.
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇪🇺🦠
While infection numbers and COVID fatalities decreased across Europe in the last week of October, the latest weekly pandemic snapshot from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has some concerning statistics. Case numbers are pretty unreliable due to the lack of testing. The ECDC says hospitalizations and intensive care admissions remain stable. Also, it adds that vaccination uptake on a 2nd booster dose “continues to be relatively low in target groups.”
The agency also warns that it is crucial to keep a close eye on pandemic developments right now due to increasing numbers of the new BQ.1 variant across Europe.
On the variant front, BA.5 and its sub-variants remain king in Europe, accounting for 91.8% of all sequenced positive test results from the mere 10 EU countries testing and sequencing in numbers large enough to provide reliable data. The new concerning BQ.1 accounted for 11.3% of cases among five European states. BA.2.75 was responsible for 1.6% of infections across eight countries.
Infection numbers among vulnerable seniors, the most tested population, dropped by 13% week to week. Two of the 22 EU nations that report data among older populations reported increasing coronavirus numbers among those 65 years old and older. The less reliable infection numbers across the entire European population fell by 23% from one week to the next. Two of the 30 European nations reporting increasing infection numbers.
Hospitalizations across the EU and the greater European Economic Area have remained stable. But, looking at specific countries, seven of the 24 reporting hospital data saw increasing admissions.
Thanks to COVID vaccines, pandemic deaths across Europe continue to decline and as of the end of October sit at just 9% of the pandemic peak.
The cumulative vaccination uptake for people with two doses and a booster shot across Europe is 53.9% of the total population, but that goes up to 84.4% among vulnerable seniors 60 years old and older. Just 7.6% of the total European population has had a 2nd booster shot.
🦠🌏
Global COVID infections and deaths eased in the last week of October, according to the latest World Health Organization assessment. The agency says the number of new infections around the world dropped by 17% in the week ending October 30. Although it cautions with a decline in testing around the world case numbers should be considered to be very underestimated. Pandemic deaths also declined by 5% with 9,300 more people losing their lives to the virus in the last week of October.
Across the different WHO healthcare regions cases fell (-39%) in the African Region; numbers were also down (-34%) in the European Region, with lesser dips (-8%) in the Eastern Mediterranean, and (-3%) South East Asian Regions. However, infection numbers increased (+5%) in the Americas, and (+5%) Western Pacific Regions.
At the individual country level. Germany had the highest number of overall new corona cases in the week with 346,672 (-36%) Japan (281,974 infections, +21%) and South Korea (241,465 cases, +37%) saw the most infection increases week to week.
Two of the six global WHO health regions saw pandemic deaths decline in Europe (-31%) and Eastern Mediterranean (-15%). For the other four fatalities rose led by the African Region (+155%) and the Americas (+23%). The United States recorded by far the highest number of weekly deaths with 3,187 lives lost (+24%).
🇩🇰
The Danish Statens Serum Institute doesn’t provide COVID updates over the weekend. It will table three days worth of coronavirus data later today.
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The impact of the booster dose vaccination campaign in Denmark is pretty evident by looking at the number of infections by age over the last seven days. The bulk of new infections are in the 20 to 64 age groups. With the vaccination effort aimed at vulnerable seniors and everyone 50 years old and older, you can see how the case load has begun to shift to the younger age brackets.
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However, COVID hospitalizations continue to be highest among vulnerable elderly populations. 71% of all hospitalizations in the last week were infected people 65 years old and older.
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Despite increasing cases of RS virus and rhinovirus infections and the threat of a looming influenza season, Danish parents don’t seem terribly keen on getting their kids a flu vaccine. Denmark offers children two to six years old a free nasal spray vaccine, but so far a measly 9% of those children have been vaccinated. The Danish National Health Board had set a goal of getting 75% of eligible children a flu vaccine.
Senior Physician Bolette Søborg spoke to DR:
“The higher the number, the more the vaccination effort protects the children and helps to mitigate the impacts of the flu season. So it is clear that a lower vaccination coverage naturally means less protection.”
The health board has 200,000 nasal spray vaccines waiting to be used. So far, only 20,000 vaccinations have been conducted. Last year, the uptake rate among children for a flu vaccine was 28%.
🇫🇮
Finland updates its national COVID statistics once a week every Thursday.
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Trouble is brewing as the Finnish Institute for Health sticks to its guns and refuses to change public health policy that excludes healthcare workers from being eligible for a 2nd COVID vaccine booster dose.
Finland is currently the only country in the European Union to not recommend that healthcare workers get another booster dose. Finnish media are reporting that healthcare workers are not impressed that, unlike the rest of their EU colleagues, they cannot get another booster shot. There is some chatter among the sector in possibly filing a human rights complaint to try and force the institute’s hand.
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Finland is lagging behind many other countries in diagnosing, treating, and rehabilitating people who suffer from long-COVID.
Neurology Professor Risto O. Roine, who also chairs the long-COVID expert group struck by the Finnish Ministry of Social Affairs and Health, spoke to STT:
“We are late, but not irrevocably so yet. Priorities have been elsewhere. Naturally, the acute treatment of the pandemic, containment measures and the development of a vaccination strategy have been the number one priority. But unfortunately, the treatment of long-term symptoms has not been done as a result.”
Roine says 20,000 people in Finland have been diagnosed with long-COVID in the last month. But he estimates that represents a fraction of the true case numbers. Roine also points out that with just one long-COVID outpatient clinic in the country, in Helsinki, clearly more clinics are badly needed.
The World Health Organization definition of long-COVID is also lacking according to Roine, who says it doesn’t take into account how the virus can damage organs in the body.
“This explains the significant public health impact.”
He says while understanding of long-COVID has come a long way since the pandemic arrived, it is such a complex disease that there is so much more we need to learn.
🇪🇸
While Spain has lifted most of its COVID restrictions, mask mandates on all public transport will remain in place until at least March of next year. Spanish authorities say that everyone on a bus, train, metro, taxi, and on a flight within Spain is mandated to mask up. Health authorities say with the colder winter months approaching fast, making it easier for the coronavirus to spread, now is not the time to lift the mask requirement. Further, depending on how the epidemic unfolds in the weeks ahead, Spain could extend the mask mandate to all indoor public spaces.
Chart courtesy of the World Health Organization.
But while mask mandates remain, Spain has eased COVID entry restrictions at its borders for all travelers arriving from outside the European Union. Travelers from third countries are no longer required to have a vaccine passport or recent negative COVID test to enter the country.
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Speaking of Spain and arriving visitors, tourism in the country has returned to the neighborhood of pre-pandemic levels. According to the Spanish government, there were 7.8 million tourists who visited Spain in September of this year. That is almost 90% of the visitor numbers registered in September of 2019. Those 7.8 million tourists spent €9.2 million while they were visiting, which is 96% of the tourism revenue from September of 2019. Year to date, 55.9 million tourists have visited Spain, dropping a whopping €68 million.
Tourism Minister Reyes Maroto says this clearly shows Spain’s tourism sector is recovering rapidly after two devastating years during the height of the pandemic.
“Taking into account the current climate of general economic uncertainty and high inflation, these figures demonstrate the great resilience that Spain is showing as a destination, which continues to present positive prospects for the remainder of the year, as reflected by indicators such as airline schedules, and reservations.”
Tourists from the United Kingdom, even with entry restrictions, continue to make up the largest number of visitors to Spain, with 1.8 million Brits making the trip in September alone.
🇨🇦
COVID hospitalizations across Canada dropped in the latest weekly update. As of the week ending October 31, the total number of hospital beds occupied by coronavirus patients fell by 189 to 6,234 beds in use. General admissions accounted for the largest portion of the decline dropping by 160 to 5,986. The number of severely infected people in an ICU went from 277 to 248 week to week. While the number of people on a ventilator dipped by 16 to 102.
The Public Health Agency of Canada hasn’t updated COVID infection numbers since October 28 and vaccination statistics hasn’t had an update since October 9.
🦠💉
A nasal vaccine designed at the Yale School of Medicine has taken a promising step forward. The vaccine has been shown to bolster immune responses in test animals who have been previously vaccinated.
The new vaccine has been dubbed the “prime and spike” is designed to boost immunity in the respiratory system, the first point of contact for the airborne coronavirus. Currently, COVID vaccines are injected into the body to provide an immune response and help prevent severe infection, hospitalization, and death. A nasal vaccine could reduce the risk of breakthrough infections in vaccinated people by boosting an immune response within the respiratory tract, the first point of attack by the coronavirus.
Assistant Professor of Medicine Dr. Benjamin Goldman-Israelow:
“The nasal vaccine promotes the development of immunity within the respiratory system, which can respond more quickly to an infection. By creating mucosal immunity, the vaccine helps stop the virus at its entry point, rather than waiting until later to fight back.”
Goldman-Israelow also notes that the Yale nasal vaccine does not use live viruses, viral vectors, or adjuvants, which may make it a safer vaccine.
🦠
A new pre-print study published in Medrivx has found that Paxlovid, a COVID treatment pill from Pfizer, reduces the risk of long-COVID by 26% if given within five days after being infected. The study says this applies whether the person given the treatment is vaccinated, boosted, or unvaccinated altogether.
The study compared 56,340 people who had tested positive and had at least one risk factor for developing long-COVID to a control group. On top of reducing the risk of long-COVID the study also found Paxlovid resulted in 30% less risk of hospitalization and 48% less risk of death.
The study authors admit their work did have its limitations and its worth noting that pre-print studies have yet to be peer-reviewed.
For anyone wanting a look at the study in full, you can find it HERE.
🦠Mystery Hepatitis🦠
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says while new cases of a mystery hepatitis impacting young children 10 years old and younger have been reported, overall numbers are dropping. The United Kingdom first reported cases of the mystery hepatitis back in April, with cases then popping up around the globe.
Since September 29, the ECDC says eight new cases have been reported in Europe, pushing the to-date total to 563 infections across 22 EU countries. In the Nordics, Sweden has 12 infections; Denmark has eight; Norway six, and Finland just one. Globally, the World Health Organization says there have been 46 children who have required a liver transplant and 22 deaths have been recorded; seven of those have been in Europe.
“While reporting delays may influence case numbers in recent weeks, there has been a steady decrease in the number of cases reported weekly since week 18.”
The hepatitis cases had presented without any of the usual causal factors, but it appears researchers may be closing in on a possible suspect, COVID lockdowns.
“The increase in cases that were observed in April and early May, and particularly in the youngest age group, may be affected by the lack of exposure to several pathogens and increased susceptibility to infection due to measures taken to curb the COVID pandemic. Evidence of human-to- human transmission remains unclear. Cases in the EU/EEA are sporadic with a definite decreasing trend. While the risk for further spread cannot be accurately assessed, cases appear to be declining.”
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇨🇿/ 🇷🇺
Russia continues to deny committing war crimes in Ukraine in spite of a growing mountain of evidence to the contrary. At least one European nation has had enough. The Czech Republic is calling for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the rest of the country’s leadership to be tried for war crimes when the war in Ukraine is over.
Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs Jan Lipavsky spoke to CNN:
“Any political leadership of a country that goes to war must be held accountable. The Czech parliament perceives Russia's actions as terrorism.”
The Czech Republic is far from alone. A number of EU governments have accused Russia of committing war crimes and more than a few are actively engaged in collecting evidence for future prosecutions. Just a few weeks ago, an expert panel struck by the United Nations tabled a chilling report on Russian war crimes saying, among other horrifying things, that it uses rape as party of its military strategy.
🇫🇮 🇸🇪/ 🇭🇺
There soon could only be one hurdle left. 28 of the 30 NATO member countries have ratified Sweden and Finland’s applications to become full member nations. But the two Nordic countries need the support of all 30 nations. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö says he recently spoke to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and received assurances that Hungary will ratify the NATO applications in a vote next month.
Should Hungary ratify the ascension protocols for Sweden and Finland in December, as promised, that would just leave troublesome Turkey left.
🇸🇪/ 🇹🇷
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week to try and push through Turkey’s continued opposition to Sweden’s NATO bid. This week, it is Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s turn. He will meet with Erdogan on Tuesday in Ankara.
In an effort to get Turkey onboard, the Swedish government is now distancing itself from YPG, a Kurdish militia that Turkey views as a terrorist group.
Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billström spoke to Sveriges Radio:
“The connection between these organizations and the PKK, which is an organization on the EU's terrorist list, is to close for there to be a good relationship between us and Turkey.”
The issue is complicated as Kurdish fighters were allies of NATO, the United States, and western forces in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Kurds provided a crucial ground force in defeating the Islamic State.
Turkey is leveraging the NATO situation, more so with Sweden than Finland, to try and win concessions on the Kurdish issue.
It is worth a reminder that Turkey agreed to support both countries NATO applications prior to them being submitted, but pulled a u-turn once the applications became official. It then reached a tripartite agreement with Finland and Sweden this summer to support their NATO bids, only to once again oppose them, claiming Sweden wasn’t living up to its end of the deal.
🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇫🇮
Warships from Denmark and Norway arrived in Helsinki, Finland this weekend. The naval vessels will take part in a NATO exercise in the Baltic this coming week. Finnish forces will also take part as efforts continue to integrate the Swedish and Finnish militaries ahead of possibly joining NATO.
🇸🇪/ 🇺🇦
Sweden's new Foreign Minister Tobias Billström says his government is considering increasing its military aid to Ukraine. But, Billström added that beside weapons, humanitarian aid for Ukraine is also paramount as winter approaches and Russia seeks to freeze Ukraine into submission.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
Finland has no plans to back off its ban on tourist visas for Russians anytime soon. Finnish President Sauli Niinistö was in Lithuania on Friday and told media that the ban would remain in place for as long as necessary and that the government hadn’t put any end date on it. Finland stopped issuing tourist visas to Russians at the beginning of October, as thousands of Russians were lining up at what was at the time the last land border crossing into the EU open to Russian citizens. Since the ban was put in place, the number of Russians trying to cross into Finland has plummeted.
G7/ 🇺🇦
The G7 nations are stepping up to help keep Ukrainians warm this winter. As Russia suffers enormous losses on the battlefield, it is now raining missiles down on critical power and water plants in an attempt to freeze Ukrainians into submission. In light of this campaign of terror, the G7 countries, USA, Canada, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, and Italy, met in Germany late last week and decided to supply Ukraine with generators and heating systems. The G7 nations have also committed to helping Ukraine rebuild critical infrastructure destroyed or damaged by Russia.
“Today we are establishing a G7 coordination mechanism to help Ukraine repair, rebuild, and defend its critical energy and water infrastructure.”
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 ☢️
After going two days without power, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in Ukraine, has been reconnected to the power grid. The power plant has its external power connections compromised, again, by Russian shelling. The plant had to use back-up diesel generators to keep everything safe, with four reactors in a cold shut-down and two more about to join them.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi is once again calling for a nuclear safety zone to be put in place around the power plant in order to prevent a nuclear accident.
“We cannot afford to lose any more time. We must act before it is too late.”