Monday Morning News & Notes
More weapons flow from the Nordics to Ukraine. The Omicron wave eases in Europe.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇩🇰/ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺
Danish Statsminister Mette Frederiksen paid a surprise visit to Kyiv, Ukraine last Thursday. Frederiksen met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and announced a significant increase in Danish support in the country’s battle with Russia. She said Denmark will donate more weapons and also provide help in removing mines left behind by Russian forces. Not done there, Frederiksen said Denmark will donate 600 million kroner (about $110 million Cdn) for what “Ukraine needs most” most likely more weapons and equipment.
“It is hard to tell you about it all. Putin leaves a trail of destruction and death behind him. I have seen apartment blocks that have been made inhabitable, kindergartens destroyed by Russian attacks, roads destroyed, and seen family homes suffering enormous damage. I listened to stories of murder, war crimes, and torture. Most of all, it's all so incredibly pointless. Two months ago, millions of Ukrainian families lived a completely ordinary life. Now millions have been displaced. The sufferings of the Ukrainian people must never be normalized for the rest of us.”
Frederiksen says Denmark will play a major role in the reconstruction of Mykolaiv in southern Ukraine. She also reiterated Denmark’s support in the work of the International Criminal Court as it investigates “the horrific war crimes committed by Putin's regime.”
🇩🇰/ 🇱🇻 NATO
Denmark has increased its troop commitment to NATO’s forces in the Baltics from 800 troops to 1,000. The move was approved by a broad majority of the Danish parliament. The battalion will deploy to Latvia this week in the latest military deployment in Denmark since dispatching troops to Kosovo in 1999. Denmark also now has the option to include another naval frigate, more air assets be they more fighter jets or surveillance aircraft, and personnel for NATO facilities.
Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeppe Kofod:
“A significant contribution to NATO's presence in the Baltics. Grateful for the efforts of our soldiers and for the broad majority behind the decision to make further military contributions to NATO.”
Latvian Foreign Affairs Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs:
“Good news on the Danish Parliament approving the decision to deploy 1,000 soldiers to Latvia as part of NATO mission, Latvia is grateful to Denmark for support and solidarity in these challenging times.”
🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺
Danish Finance Minister Nicolai Wammen joined many of his other colleagues attending the International Monetary Fund and World Bank’s annual meeting in Washington D.C. on Friday in walking out when the Russian Minister of Finance began speaking. Wammen said on social media this was a clear signal to Russia that “we won’t tolerate Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
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Russian representatives are not welcome to attend a traditional visit to the Danish Island of Bornholm. Usually around May 9, every year Russian officials come to Bornholm to commemorate the Soviet soldiers who died fighting on the island during World War II. But this year they cannot come, says the Bornholm-elected member of parliament from the Liberal Party, Peter Juel-Jensen.
Jensen told DR that Russian officials are not welcome in Bornholm.
“Russia has attacked another country and sent millions of people into exile. We have some of the Ukrainian refugees here on Bornholm, and of course they do not have to meet Russian soldiers here.”
In a historical oddity, while the rest of Denmark was celebrating the surrender of Germany and the end of occupation in May of 1945, the island of Bornholm was still in the middle of fighting. Russian forces eventually seized it from the Germans and then occupied the island themselves, refusing to surrender it to Denmark until April of 1946.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦
As Finland moves closer to a reported move to apply to become a part of NATO, the Finnish government is moving to reduce electricity imports from Russia. Finland’s national power grid operate, Fingrid, says this is being done for the express purpose of preventing Russia from trying to attempt to influence or threaten Finland during the NATO application process.
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The Finnish Immigration Service said as of last week more than 19,200 Ukrainians have applied for asylum since Russia invaded Ukraine.
🇳🇴/ 🇺🇦
Norway has sent air defense systems to Ukraine. The Norwegian Ministry of Defense says it has donated 100 Mistral short range missile systems to Ukraine. It says the Mistral units are no longer being used by the Norwegian military but are still modern and effective weapons.
🇩🇪/ 🇺🇦 🇸🇮
The German government is being defensive about how fast it is working to supply heavy weapons to Ukraine. The country has been accused by Ukraine and other EU nations of dragging its feet, if not outright blocking efforts to get weapons to Ukraine to help in its battle against Russia. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Germany is “precisely contributing” to the supply of weapons through special agreements with European allies.
“We have no taboos regarding the supply of armored vehicles and other weapons that Ukraine needs.”
The dpa news agency is reporting that Berlin has an agreement with Slovenia where it would send 30 to 40 T-72 tanks to Ukraine, and Germany would replace those with more modern German-made tankers and armoured vehicles.
🇨🇦/ 🇺🇦
Canada has sent “a number of” M777 howitzers and ammunition to Ukraine. While the exact number hasn’t been revealed the CBC is reporting it is just four of the heavy weapons asked for by Ukrainian Armed Forces. The federal government said it is also sending “a significant number” of Carl Gustaf anti-armour rounds. The M777 howitzers can hit targets up to 30 kilometers away.
🌏🦠🇩🇰
The World Health Organization says there have been at least 169 cases of ‘acute hepatitis of an unknown origin’ across at least a dozen countries among kids ranging in age from infants one-month old to 16 years old. The mysterious hepatitis outbreak has now claimed the life of one child, according to the UN health agency.
The Danish Staten Serum Institut says there have been three such cases confirmed in Denmark since December. The SSI says a commonality appears to be the absence of the most common forms of hepatitis. In some cases in the United Kingdom, it says, some children have had to have liver transplants due to having a very severe infection.
Chief Physician Anders Koch:
“It is more [cases]than we would expect. All of the children have been hospitalized and several have been seriously ill, but fortunately none of them have needed a liver transplant.”
Koch says Danish health authorities have now initiated extensive monitoring for any more cases of the unexplained hepatitis cases.
“Normally we keep an eye on hepatitis caused by certain viruses, for example, hepatitis A. But now we have some children with liver damage, which we do not really know what the cause is. Therefore, we have now expanded monitoring, so that the National Board of Health and SSI together with pediatricians are keeping an eye out for such cases.”
That said, he adds that parents shouldn’t be too concerned.
“Even if it is a specific cause and not sporadic cases, the risk of the individual child being affected by this rare form of hepatitis is still incredibly small."
He advises parents to be vigilant and keep an eye out for hepatitis symptoms if their child becomes ill. They include whitish stools, dark coloured urine, yellowing of the eyes and skin, fatigue, loss of appetite, nausea, vomiting, and muscle, and joint pains.
The first cases of children becoming infected with the mystery hepatitis appeared in Scotland at the end of March. Scottish health investigators are looking at any and all possible links including if the pandemic is playing a role.
“The leading hypotheses center around adenovirus, either a new variant with a distinct clinical syndrome or a routinely circulating variant, that is more severely impacting younger children who are immunologically naïve.”
🦠Pandemic🦠
🇩🇰 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇳🇴 🦠💉
A massive Nordic study has confirmed that myocarditis (an inflammation of the heart muscle) can be a rare side effect of the mRNA COVID vaccines. The study encompassed 23 million people over the age of 12 in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and Finland, covering a nine month period. Researchers determined there were 1,077 confirmed cases of myocarditis (0.0046% of those vaccinated) due to being vaccinated with either the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccines.
The study determined young men were most at risk. This was especially true after a 2nd dose of the Moderna vaccine. The study determined there were 18 cases after a second dose of the Moderna vaccine per 100,000 vaccinated young men between the ages of 16 and 24 years old. Among those 25 to 39 years old, the incidence rate dropped to 8, while the number was just 1 for men over the age of 40.
This was especially true after a 2nd dose of the Moderna vaccine. The study determined there were 18 cases after a second dose of the Moderna vaccine per 100,000 vaccinated young men between the ages of 16 and 24 years old. Among those 25 to 39 years old, the incidence rate dropped to 8 while the number was just 1 for men over the age of 40.
They found 18 cases after the 2nd dose of the Moderna vaccine per 100,000 vaccinated young men aged 16-24 years. In the 25-39 year old men there were 8 cases per 100,000 vaccinated after the 2nd dose of the Moderna vaccine, and in men 40 years old and older men there were only 1 case.
As for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the study found just 5 cases per 100,000 vaccinated young men aged 16-24 years old.
Denmark’s Staten Serum Institut Acting Head of Department, and study researcher, Professor Anders Hviid:
“In Denmark, we have primarily used the vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech, and it is limited how many young men have received the Moderna vaccine at all. In our study, only 19,406 people aged 16 to 24 years received two doses of Moderna vaccine. In comparison, 438,109 have received two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech. Therefore, few young men have been affected by this side effect. We estimate that in this age group, 12 men have developed it in connection with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and 2 have developed it in connection with the Moderna vaccine. This must be seen in relation to the fact that we have vaccinated more than 450,000 people in the same age group.”
The study also emphasized that the protection offered by vaccines against severe infection, hospitalization, and death vastly outweighed the extremely low risk of suffering this rare side effect. Myocarditis is also a side effect of having a coronavirus infection itself.
🇩🇰
Pandemic barometers, both reliable and those not so much, continue to show a declining epidemic in Denmark, although there are some potential warning signs. This is according to the latest weekly pandemic assessment from the Statens Serum Institut.
COVID hospitalizations continue to fall from once lofty heights, with 662 new coronavirus admissions in week 15, a 21% week-to week decline. The decreasing number of severe infection cases being admitted to hospital fell across all age groups. That said, those 70 to 89 years old continue to make up the highest number of new COVID patients by age. The proportion of hospitalizations directly due to a coronavirus infection, as opposed to being admitted for another reason but with an infection, continues to steadily decline, and as of week 13, was just 50%.
The number of new COVID infections also continues to fall, equaling an incidence rate of 217 per 100,000 population the week before last. The number of PCR tests taken from week to week also dropped by 33%, to an average of 14,000 tests each day. This means new infection numbers remain highly underreported.
The number of pandemic deaths also continues to decline as fatalities dropped from 142 in week 14 to 77 the following week.
But while all the numbers above all fell, it was not all good news, as the positivity percentage nudged upward from 18% up to 19% from one week to the next. Taking a deeper dive, the positivity percentage increased among several age groups, notably those 6 to 19 years old and people 30 to 59 years of age. Seniors 70 to 79 years old have the highest positivity percentage by age with 22%. The capital region (Region Hovedstaden) had the lowest positivity percentage with 15% while the other four regions varied between 20% to 22%.
Another potentially concerning development was seen in national COVID wastewater surveillance testing as virus activity increased slightly. Looking at the five Danish regions, corona wastewater activity rose in four of the five regions, with just Region Syddanmark seeing decreasing rates.
COVID cases among seniors in nursing homes continued to drop, with 326 confirmed infections in week 25, compared to 395 the previous week. Fatalities among seniors in care also maintained a downward trajectory, with coronavirus claiming 33 lives in week 15, down from the 41 from the week before.
On the variant front, the Omicron sub-strain BA.2 remains king, accounting for 99% of all sequenced positive test results. The BA.2 variant with the H78Y mutation has stabilized, making up 25.4% of cases. A couple of new Omicron mutations have popped up in Denmark, with BA.2.1 and BA.2.3 seeing some growth making up 4.5% and 1.6% of all cases, respectively.
Denmark’s unusually late influenza wave may have peaked. The SSI says a “large decrease” in flu cases has been seen in the past week. Going hand in hand with that is a drop in the number of influenza-related hospital admissions. The institute notes that the resurgent seasonal flu has been hitting children and younger adults more this spring than seen before.
The SSI is forecasting that the COVID pandemic will continue to see decreasing numbers including in hospitalizations and deaths “in the coming weeks.” It is also anticipating the influenza wave to continue to ebb.
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The head of the Staten Serum Institut is crediting the country’s soaring levels of social trust and a very high vaccination rate for Denmark having one of the world’s lowest levels of excess mortality during the pandemic.
Henrik Ullum cites numbers from Our World in Data showing that Denmark fared much better than a lot of other countries during the the first two years of the COVID pandemic in terms of excess deaths.
“It is fantastically gratifying that we have come through a two-year pandemic with such limited excess mortality at the same time as we now have a fully reopened society. It is a testament to our strength and ability to collaborate across Danish society. In the end, this means that the Danes have been very good at taking care of each other. This also applies to both public authorities across the state, region, and municipalities, as well as businesses, and interest groups.”
Ullum emphasizes that extremely high levels of vaccination uptake in Denmark have helped save lives.
“When we compare it with other countries and look at the data, we can see that high vaccination coverage has been crucial to this success. For that, we must be grateful to the many Danes who have chosen not only to protect themselves but the whole of society by being vaccinated.”
🇸🇪
Sweden only updates its COVID statistics once a week on Thursdays.
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The Swedish Public Health Agency’s latest COVID modeling, its ninth, is warning of another infection wave, with cases possibly peaking by mid-May before dropping to “low levels” over the summer. The projection is built on the expected continued spread of the hyper-contagious BA.2 variant and vaccination protection of at least three months. While the agency is also counting on the seasonal effect of the summer, with warmer weather and more people being outside to stymie the spread of the virus.
Acting Head of Department Lisa Brouwers:
“The scenario shows a possible development where COVID cases may again increase slightly and reach their peak in mid-May. The infection spread is then expected to fall to low levels during the summer. To reduce the risk of serious infection consequences, it is important that as many people as possible get vaccinated regardless of the number of previous doses.”
At its peak by mid-May, the health agency is anticipating about 3,500 infection cases per day. But, it also acknowledges due to restricting COVID testing to just those in hospitals and to seniors in care, the “dark figure” or actual number of infection cases is “greater than ever before in the pandemic.”
“The Swedish Public Health Agency does not consider that any new infection control measures are needed in this situation. But it is still important to maintain preventive measures in health care and elderly care, and to continue working to maintain a high vaccination rate.”
The agency adds, while restricting COVID testing for the general public, that monitoring infection spread and testing for virus variants is “important for detecting and managing a possible worsening situation.”
During week 15, Sweden saw a 25% decrease in confirmed COVID cases, while coronavirus testing also declined by 18% week over week. Sweden’s positivity percentage was 14% based on limited testing numbers that week.
The Swedish Public Health Agency reports intensive care numbers have been holding steady since mid-March. There were 16 new ICU admissions in week 15. COVID fatalities have been steadily dropping, with 116 pandemic deaths recorded in the first week of April. Keep in mind, Sweden is still struggling with a backlog in reporting pandemic deaths.
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Sweden is now seeing a rising number of influenza cases. The Swedish Public Health Agency says there were 392 cases of the seasonal flu in week 15, with most (67%) being reported in Region Götaland. The agency says it is keeping a close eye on the situation adding “how flu activity will develop in the coming weeks is difficult to predict.”
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The Anders Tegnell saga is getting a little weirder. The Swedish Public Health Agency announced a few months ago that Tegnell, the architect of Sweden’s disastrous pandemic response strategy, had resigned his position as state epidemiologist to take a new job with the World Health Organization. Swedish media outlets investigated and found no such position existed, and WHO officials seemed to know nothing about Tegnell coming onboard. Late last week the agency, in a marked change of tone and context, clarified that in March it had appointed Tegnell to work on an “international assignment” that was “linked” to the WHO. However, “following a process at the WHO, it has turned out that an agreement could not be reached.” Instead, the agency says Tegnell will now work “with international commitments” at the Folkhälsomyndigheten.
Tegnell disparaged Denmark’s COVID lockdown early in the pandemic. After Sweden’s first coronavirus wave he said it wouldn’t see another one as severe due to the country having herd immunity. Sweden then suffered second, third, and fourth waves, all with exponentially higher case loads than its first. In January of 2021, Sweden abandoned its laissez faire pandemic strategy as it suffered more coronavirus deaths than the rest of its Nordic neighbours combined.
🇫🇮
Finland doesn’t update its COVID statistics on the weekends. It will table three days worth of coronavirus numbers later today.
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Finland’s epidemic isn’t getting worse, but its also not getting much better. The latest weekly snapshot from the Finnish Institute for Health says COVID hospitalizations have decreased slightly, but the number of new patients remains quite high. In week 15, there were more than 700 new COVID patients admitted. But, the agency notes that while general hospitalizations remain a concern, intensive care numbers are dropping. There were 55 new ICU admissions between April 4 to 17; that compares to 84 in the two weeks prior. The institute estimates about one-third of hospitalizations are for people who are infected but are seeking hospital care for a non-pandemic reason.
In the past two weeks, Finland has lost another 337 lives to coronavirus, a number that is down from the 406 pandemic deaths seen in the preceding two weeks. The median age for coronavirus fatalities is 83.
COVID wastewater testing in Finland continues to show high levels of virus activity, but levels have remained stable for about five weeks now.
The health agency continues to urge people to get vaccinated noting that the risk of hospitalization and admission to intensive care due to a severe COVID infection for people who have had three vaccine doses was about one-tenth the risk for people who are unvaccinated.
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The mask mandate was lifted in Finland last week. The Finnish Institute for Health says mask use is no longer required except for people who think they may be infected, who go to get tested or seek medical care. People who have COVID symptoms but have “essential reasons” to be outside their home. People who are close contacts to someone who has tested positive should also mask up when they can’t avoid being in close proximity to others.
Chief Physician Otto Helve says while the mask mandate has largely been lifted people can continue to use their own discretion and wear a mask to keep themselves safe.
“Especially those aged 12 and over who have not been vaccinated, and all who are susceptible to severe coronavirus infection regardless of vaccination status, should consider using a mask.”
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Finland saw the highest number of deaths in more than 35 years in 2021. The number of people who died last year rose by about 4% compared to 2020, according to Statistics Finland. The increased number of deaths is likely linked to the ongoing COVID pandemic.
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Finnish airlines, Finnair, will lift the requirement for face masks to be worn onboard its lights as of April 25, unless expressly required by the health authorities in the country it is flying from or flying to. For example, masks are still required by Italy, Greece, France, and Turkey, among others.
🇳🇴
Norway’s Omicron variant-fueled infection wave appears to be receding according to the latest weekly assessment from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. In week 15, there were 131 COVID hospitalizations, a 38% decrease from the 210 admissions the week before. Seniors over the age of 74 continue to make up the highest number of coronavirus hospitalizations. The number of ICU admissions also dropped from 21 to 6 from one week to the next.
The NIPH says COVID fatalities have been falling for four straight weeks. There were 58 pandemic deaths in week 15, well down from the 118 the week prior. The median age of those who have died was 87 years old. The institute says 64% of COVID deaths that week occurred primarily in nursing homes.
On the more unreliable case count front, the agency says there were 3,426 confirmed COVID infections in week 15, about half the number of the previous week. It says infection numbers and pandemic related trips to the family doctor continue to drop in lockstep with decreasing testing activity.
As in the rest of Europe, the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 reigns supreme in Norway, accounting for around 98% of all sequenced positive test results in the last two weeks.
The NIPH says all available surveillance data shows “a clear declining trend in the COVID epidemic.” It is anticipating that the Omicron wave has now passed its peak and numbers will continue to drop. However, due to the pandemic and a late influenza season, it warns that the Norwegian hospital system will remain strained for the coming weeks.
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Norway continues to wrestle with an influenza outbreak. The Norwegian Institute of Public Health says a seasonal flu outbreak continues with a positivity percentage of 17% in the last two weeks. In week 14, influenza accounted for 24% of all hospitalizations related to respiratory tract infections. COVID cases accounted for 29% as a comparison.
🇪🇺🦠
Overall, COVID activity is easing across Europe, albeit infection spread remains at high levels roughly comparable to the Delta variant wave in November just before Omicron arrived. That is according to the latest weekly pandemic assessment from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
As of mid-April, week 15, the number of COVID cases was decreasing across all 30 countries in the European Union and the greater European Economic Area. The COVID infection rate per 100,000 people in Europe was 1,214 down from the 1,510 from the previous week. But, you have to factor in a lot less testing and the unreliability of case numbers. The ECDC says fewer countries are now reporting rising infection numbers among seniors 65 years old and older. But it added that the epidemiological situation in Europe remains “mixed” noting that some countries are reporting “concerning trends” in the number of severe infection cases.
Intensive care numbers have remained stable over the last few weeks across Europe, albeit admissions are still at “a relatively high level.” Of the 27 countries reporting data on COVID hospitalizations and ICU numbers as of April 17, six reported increasing numbers in one or both categories.
The 14 day pandemic death rate was 21.5 per million population, compared to 26.4 from the previous two week period. This is the 2nd week in a row fatality rates have decreased.
As of mid-April, 72.6% of the total European population had two vaccine doses and 53.1% had a booster dose.
Omicron remains king in Europe, accounting for 99.9% of all sequenced positive test results for tests taken from March 28 to April 10. Accounting for Omicrom sub-variants, the hyper-contagious BA.2 variant remains dominant, making up 94.3% of all cases. Two new sub-variants of interest, BA.4 and BA.5, account for 0.3% and 1.1% of all cases, respectively.
The ECDC is forecasting infection numbers to continue to drop over the next two weeks while hospitalizations and pandemic fatalities will both remain stable. It again notes the unreliability of case numbers due to lackluster testing rates across the EU.
WHO 🦠
The World Health Organization has issued a strong recommendation for the use of the Paxlovid COVID treatment pill. Pfizer produces the pill that is used to treat vulnerable people who are at high risk of severe infection, hospitalization, and death. The pill must be administered in a tight window between when those at high risk become infected but aren’t yet severely ill. A WHO expert panel reviewed information from 3,000 people treated with Paxlovid and concluded that it reduced the risk of severe infection and hospitalization by 85%.
🇨🇦
As of this morning, Canada is easing entry restrictions at its borders, but just for those who are fully vaccinated and for children, regardless of their vaccination status.
Children aged five to eleven years old who are accompanied by a fully vaccinated adult will no longer have to have a pre-entry negative COVID test. Children younger than five have never been required to have a negative test. A negative test will still be required for all travelers 12 years old and older who are unvaccinated or partially vaccinated in order to enter the country.
For those traveling to Canada who are fully vaccinated, they no longer have to provide a quarantine plan at customs. The same applies to children five to eleven years old who are accompanied by a fully vaccinated adult.
Fully vaccinated travelers will also no longer be required to wear a mask in public places for the first 14 days of their trip. A measure that was never enforced anyway. Nor will they have to keep a long list of close contacts during their visit, report any symptoms, or quarantine if someone they are traveling with tests positive.
All travelers are still required to fill out information in the ArriveCAN app prior to arrival.
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The Public Health Agency of Canada says the latest COVID infection wave may be nearing its peak. It says infection activity remains widespread across the country. Canada’s national positivity percentage “remains elevated” at 18%. COVID wastewater testing also continues to show high levels of virus activity in many parts of the country.
PHAC also cites a “concerning” increase in COVID hospitalizations in several areas of the country. Although, it adds, the surge “appears to still be manageable” and hospitals aren’t yet threatened with being overrun. While it credits high vaccination rates for keeping hospital admissions manageable it also cautions that “keeping infection rates down remains key to protecting vulnerable populations” and minimizing the impact on the healthcare system.
As elsewhere in the world, the Omicron sub-variant BA.2 is dominant in Canada, accounting for over 70% of all sequenced positive test results.
The health agency continues to sound the alarm, with over five-million at risk Canadians who still need one or more vaccine doses to be fully vaccinated.