Monday Morning News & Notes

2024 the hottest year ever. Baltic Sea security situation.

Jan 13, 2025

🍃Environment & Energy⚡️

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2024 set a global heat record, making it the hottest year on record and the first year ever to see global temperatures exceeding 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.

That is the global warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average temperature last year was 15.10°C, beating out 2023 by 0.12°C as the previous hottest year on record. 2024 was 1.60°C warmer than the pre-industrial level, making it the first calendar year ever to exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The 1.5°C threshold was breached in all but a single month last year. It also makes each of the last ten years the warmest on record, with each year hotter than the last. On July 22, daily global temperature averages reached 17.16°C, the single hottest day ever.

“One or two years that exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level does not imply that the Paris Agreement has been breached. However, with the current rate of warming at more than 0.2°C per decade, the probability of breaching the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement within the 2030s is highly likely.”

It took just ten days for the world’s richest people to use the entirety of their climate footprint if global emissions are to be kept in check and not exceed 1.5°C. That is according to calculations from Oxfam, which looked at emissions by different income groups. For comparison, the world’s poorest will take almost three years, 1,022 days, to use its annual share of emissions. The agency notes that it is the poorest parts of the global population that are hit hardest by climate change with food shortages and a lack of water.

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2024 will go into the books as the second warmest year on record in Denmark with the second highest amount of annual rainfall since the country began keeping weather records in 1874. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, some 926.7 millimetres of rain fell in 2024, falling short of the 2023 record of 967.7 mm. The average temperature last year was 9.8 °C just shy of the warmest year on record, 2014’s 10.0 °C.

That said, a number of weather records were shattered in 2024. The year began with Svendborg setting a January rainfall record with 59 millimetres of rain falling in a single day. And the year ended with Esbjerg setting a September rainfall record with 144.6 mm coming down in a matter of hours. In between, April 2024 was the wettest April ever, the spring months (March, April, and May) were the hottest ever, and for the first time in 150 years, May was warmer than June.

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Finland had a record warm year in 2024. The average temperature last year was 4.0°C, a full 1.1°C hotter than the average temperature from 1991 to 2020. Northern Lapland, in the Arctic Circle, also saw record high temperatures, a shocking 1.7°C above average.

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Denmark began the new year with torrential rain, which in turn caused flooding. In the Northern Jutland city of Elling, the main road connecting it with Frederikshavn was finally reopened last Thursday after it was inundated with floodwaters. The road had been closed for several days after torrential rain caused Elling Å (stream) to overflow.

The Danish island of Bornholm got wacked with a wild winter storm over the weekend with so much snow falling that police issued an advisory against all unnecessary driving. The situation was exacerbated by strong winds creating white out conditions.

Over in Assedrup, near Aarhus, the rain and high waters led to a rather unusual visitor to the town. A small seal was found on a road and had to be rescued. Experts think that the seal got lost in a maze of overflowing streams and flooded fields. Some locals used some plastic and a wheelbarrow to very carefully move the stressed seal close to a nearby stream, where it hopped back in the water and disappeared.

While most of Denmark will remember December for all the rain and an almost total lack of sunlight, on the Danish island of Bornholm it was the wind that made a mark. According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, the island saw a huge increase in strong to gale-force winds last month. DMI says Bornholm had almost 50% more windy hours than seen on average for any month of December in the last 13 years. The wind was especially bad around Christmas, leading to cancelled ferries and travel headaches.

There could be some disruptive protests in Aalborg and perhaps several other Danish cities today. Farmers, fishermen, and truck drivers plan to use tractors, taxis, buses, and other vehicles to block traffic in protest against environmental initiatives and the green tripartite deal. They say taxes on diesel, environmental rules around cow feed, and the Green Deal, are making it unfair to compete. In Aalborg, the protest will get underway in the afternoon.

As Denmark grapples with climate change-driven flooding, the government is signalling that it might be time to rethink house insurance costs. The change is simple in concept: homeowners with bigger, more expensive homes, and those living in flood risk areas, will pay what is being described as “a fairly sharp premium increase.” It looks like the insurance industry is onboard with this fairly major shift in how home insurance works in Denmark.

Enterprise Minister Morton Bødskov notes that within the government, the consensus is that the cost of flooding damages, already significant, will likely double in the years ahead. With those increased costs, homeowners should pay insurance costs reflecting the home’s value and if it is in a flood risk area.

“It is important that we have a solidarity system and that everyone pays, because everyone can be affected. But it is clear that we are also looking at whether the deposit should be differentiated, because there are different risks depending on whether you live on a hilltop or by the beach.”

Historic flooding in October of 2023 caused damages well in excess of a billion Danish kroner. Last November, a report from DTU estimated that over the next 100 years, flooding damages to homes, holiday homes, commercial buildings, transport, agriculture, and tourism will amount to around 406 billion kroner (about $80 billion Cdn). The report notes that it is a conservative estimate.

Some good news on a dismal situation in Denmark’s oxygen-starved inland waters. A project called ‘Coast Helper’ has been using volunteers to build new stone reefs in the Limfjord. They have built four so far, and a check of just one of them showed an explosion of marine life. One of the volunteers, Astrid Vinterberg Frandsen, told DR that she was amazed by all the plants, algae, and small fish that had already moved in.

“We came out of the water and were like,"Wow"! We didn't expect that there would already be so much growing here. That there is already life shows that you can make a difference, even though the situation in the Danish fjords can sometimes seem hopeless.”

In and of themselves, the new man-made reefs do not have any effect on the problem of oxygen loss and poor water quality that is plaguing Denmark’s inland waterways. What they do accomplish is help to rebalance an ecosystem heavily damaged by centuries of removing stones and destroying natural reefs in order to create building materials for churches, piers, and other major projects.

A Danish fishing industry group wants to help rescue mussels, clams, and other shellfish from the bottom of the oxygen-depleted Limfjord, but they are running into roadblocks from European regulations and opposition from the Danish government.

In essence, the Muslingeerhvervet Association wants to scrape sections of the bottom of the Limfjord to rescue and relocate as many shellfish as possible. In 2021 and 2022, the association estimates that oxygen-depleted waters killed 62,000 tonnes of shellfish in just one bay in the Limfjord. Those shellfish then decompose and deplete more oxygen, creating a vicious cycle.

Association Chair Henrik Nielsen spoke to DR:

“It creates an environmental disaster that repeats every year when oxygen depletion hits and then the shellfish die again.”

Last September, oxygen levels were so low in the Limfjord that fish were dying and washing up on the water’s edge.

However, the association says that EU regulations designed to protect aquatic environments, including plants like eelgrass, prevent them from launching their rescue plan. Experts from both Aarhus University and DTU Aqua have examined the rescue plan and the proposed site and believe it has merit.

DTU Aqua Professor Jens Kjerulf Petersen was asked about the environmental concerns around scraping the bottom of the Limfjord.

“Scraping the bottom clearly has an impact. But you have to be aware that in the areas where there is frequent oxygen depletion, the bottom is already very depleted. Therefore, my overall assessment is that the damage is quite limited.”

Petersen says the rescue plan needs to include efforts to restore the areas being scraped after the shellfish have been rescued.

Denmark’s Environment Ministry is also siding with the EU regulations, saying there is no scientific evidence supporting the association’s plan. It adds that experts, including from Aarhus University and DTU Aqua, have confirmed that scraping the fjord bottom would only exacerbate the oxygen depletion problem and further damage the aquatic environment.

Climate change continues to make its presence felt in Denmark. Hvidovre is looking to trade its plans for a proposed fancy new business area set to be built on artificial islands for a new coastal protection project instead. The goal is to better protect the municipality from the rising flood threat posed by storm surges while strengthening nature areas and encouraging biodiversity.

Mayor Anders Wolf Andresen:

“With this project, we are creating a balance between climate change and nature's development.”

Council will make a final decision at the end of the month.

A plan to churn out green fertilizer for Danish farmers has gone up in smoke. The plan, backed by a number of Danish agricultural companies, was supposed to harness wind power to power a process to create more environmentally friendly fertilizer, but the companies behind the idea have all thrown in the towel. Conventional fertilizer is made using fossil fuels and is imported in increasing amounts from Russia. Fertilizer is not covered by EU sanctions against Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The war against red meat continues in Denmark. The Salling Group, operator of the grocery stores Føtex, Netto, and Bilka, will begin offering packages of mixed chicken and beef this week. The 400 gram packages will go for 30 kroner. They will also offer beef mixed with pea protein. The idea is to reduce red meat use in order to mitigate environmental impacts.

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The eating habits of people in Sweden are among the worst in the world when it comes to the impact on the environment. That is the conclusion of a study of 156 countries done by the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. Swedes, like other Scandinavians, eat a lot of dairy and meat products, two food groups that produce a lot of greenhouse gas emissions. The University estimates that meat and dairy products account for around 65% to 75% of food-related emissions in the Nordics. The study says that if Swedes cut their dairy and meat consumption in half, that in and of itself would reduce annual emissions by 20%.

New year, new rules. It is no longer allowed to throw old clothes, curtains, tablecloths, and other textiles in the garbage in Sweden. New legislation banning the practice came into force on January 1. People caught breaking the new law will be fined. On average, people in Sweden throw away about 8 kilograms of textiles per year, with a small fraction of that ever being recycled.

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Denmark set a new power consumption record in 2024. According to energy company Norlys, 38.4 terawatt hours of electricity were consumed last year, a 5% increase over the previous power use record set in 2021.

Energy Business Director Mads Brøgger:

“The numbers speak for themselves. We are no longer saving so much on electricity and, most importantly, electrification is starting to take off. There are simply a lot more people who have replaced their gas or diesel vehicle with an electric car or are now using a heat pump.”

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European gas reserves are at 67.6%, compared to the 86% that they were at this point a year ago. Among EU countries, the Netherlands has the lowest storage levels, at just 58%. This winter has seen the largest use of European gas reserves since 2018. The rapid drop in gas levels and a major reliance on LNG to make up for cutting the cord on gas from Russia could both complicate efforts to refill gas storage tanks this summer and cause prices to rise.

Denmark and the European Commission are in talks after the country missed EU mandated gas storage targets. Denmark was supposed to have gas reserves at 90% by November 1. After missing that target, the EU gave them until December 1, which Denmark also missed.

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British gas reserves have fallen to “worryingly low levels,” according to Centrica, the parent company of Britain’s largest gas supplier, British Gas. The UK has been enduring unusually cold temperatures since Christmas, which is causing a spike in energy use as people crank up the heat. Centrica, in sounding the alarm, notes that Great Britain has a fraction of the gas storage that other European nations have. According to Centrica, gas reserves were about half full as of last Thursday, or about 26% below the levels of January 2024.

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Last year, Finland fell short of its goal to produce enough electricity to make the country self-sufficient. In 2024, imported three terawatt hours of electricity more than it exported. After domestic electricity production covered 98% of Finland’s total consumption in 2023, the hope was to get the country across the self-sufficiency line last year. However, due to some maintenance issues with several nuclear power plants and problems with cross-border transmission lines, they fell short of achieving the goal.

Fingrid Head of Strategic Power Grid Planning Mikko Heikkilä spoke to Yle.

"When electricity cannot be exported from Finland and we have a surplus supply, the price drops and even goes negative, making it unprofitable to produce electricity. These transmission connections and their stable operation are crucial for Finland to achieve annual self-sufficiency in electricity production.”

While the damaged EstLink 2 power cable will have an impact on this year’s attempt to reach energy self-sufficiency, Finland has been growing its wind energy industry at a phenomenal rate. Wind turbine power production capacity now exceeds 8,000 megawatts. That is roughly the combined energy output of about four of Finland’s nuclear power plants.

🦠Outbreaks🦠

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COVID numbers appear to be treading water with the number of confirmed infections and virus activity as measured by wastewater surveillance staying at the same level in recent weeks.

The Statens Serum Institute says it is influenza numbers that are topping the concern list. It says the number if cases is at a “high level” with the expectation infections will continue to rise. The institute says RS virus cases are also increasing.

The fall and winter vaccination program ended just before Christmas in Denmark. The SSI says uptake for a COVID booster dose and a flu shot among seniors in care was 85%. Among all seniors over 65, 75% had a COVID vaccination while 76% received a flu shot.

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The Swedish Public Health Agency hasn’t updated COVID hospitalization numbers since January 5.

The Swedish Public Health Agency says the winter RS virus infection wave has arrived. There have been 588 confirmed infections so far, and the agency is warning it expects infection numbers to keep climbing. Infants under one and seniors over 75 are being hit the hardest.

Deputy State Epidemiologist Erik Sturegård:

“We expect that the spread of RS virus will increase in the coming weeks, which means increased risks for small children. It is important that infants are kept away from people outside the immediate family who have a cough or runny nose. Everyone interacting with infants should be extra careful about hand washing, especially older siblings.”

While RSV presents like a common cold for adults and older children, it can lead to severe respiratory symptoms for seniors. Infants can also become very sick with wracking coughs resulting in breathing difficulties and possibly hospitalization.

The agency stresses that the best way to reduce infection risk is to avoid people who are sick and make sure to observe good handwashing hygiene. Seniors at risk can get an RSV vaccination; however, it is not currently available for free in Sweden.

Influenza infections are also expected to begin rocketing upward.

State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén:

“We expect it to increase in the coming weeks. Just as is usually the case when the spread of infection picks up speed, we see a fairly rapid increase in cases.”

At the moment, a grab bag of respiratory viruses is circulating around the country, including COVID. On top of influenza and RSV, health authorities are also bracing for what they call the winter vomiting sickness in Sweden, better known as Norovirus.

“Above all, you should get vaccinated if you are in a risk group. We know that it protects against severe infections.”

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Someone infected with measles travelled on a ferry from Tallinn, Estonia, to Helsinki, Finland, last Tuesday night. The Finnish Institute for Health says the infected person was travelling on the Eckerö Line's M/S Finlandia, which left Tallinn at 6:30 p.m. and arrived in Helsinki at 9 p.m. Health authorities are working with the cruise line to contact all passengers and ferry staff who were on the ship. They are being urged to make sure their vaccinations are up to date. Measles is highly contagious and can potentially cause severe reactions and health complications, and in some cases it can be deadly.

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There is an outbreak of some kind of as yet unidentified stomach bug in Finland’s far north. Tourists in the Käsivarsi Wilderness Area in Finnish Lapland have been getting sick with symptoms that include vomiting, diarrhea, and a fever. In one case someone was so sick they had to be medically evacuated to a better-equipped hospital. Health authorities have not identified a cause yet. People are advised to avoid areas where the outbreak is occurring and make sure they are observing good handwashing hygiene. Anyone feeling unwell should cancel any hiking or other wilderness activities.

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Germany has confirmed three cases of foot and mouth disease among a herd of farmed buffalo on a farm outside Berlin. It is the first time since 1988 that there has been a case of foot and mouth infection in the country. A three kilometre quarantine zone has been set up around the farm with a second monitoring zone within a ten kilometre radius. Foot and mouth disease is a highly contagious virus, but it is not dangerous to humans.

Baltic Sea Security

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Another ship in Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ is in trouble. On Friday, the Eventin, a fully loaded oil tanker sailing under a Panama flag, reported an inability to manoeuvre due to some kind of machine failure. The ship was adrift in the Baltic off of the picturesque German island of Rügen. It has a cargo of 99,000 tonnes of sanctioned Russian oil.

German Foreign Affairs Minister Annalena Baerbock was not pleased.

“It is precisely this scenario that I and my colleagues from the Baltic Sea region have repeatedly warned about. Russia is endangering our European security not only with its war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law, but also with cutting cables, moving border buoys, and disinformation campaigns, GPS jammers, and also with dilapidated oil tankers."

She says Putin’s efforts to deploy a ‘shadow fleet’ of old dilapidated oil tankers just to dodge sanctions poses a threat to Baltic security, the marine environment, and even the tourism industry.

Three tugboats spent all of Saturday night pulling the tanker through rough waters to a safer and more sheltered location. They arrived off the coast of Rügen near the town of Sassnitz on Sunday morning. The tanker remains powerless. Two tugboats will remain on station to help while German authorities try to figure out how to deal with the tanker.

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The Finnish Transport and Communications Agency (Traficom) says it found a number of serious safety issues after an inspection of the oil tanker ‘Eagle S.’ A port state control inspection found a whopping 32 serious deficiencies. Of those, three were so serious that each on their own would have warranted a detention order. The agency says the tanker will not be permitted to operate until each issue is fixed.

Maritime Director Sanna Sonninen says that problems were found in everything from fire safety systems to navigational equipment.

“Traficom has detained the Eagle S vessel based on the findings of the port inspection. The vessel has such serious deficiencies that it is not allowed to operate on it until the deficiencies are fixed. Correcting the deficiencies will require external repair assistance and will take time.”

Traficom also found issues with pumping equipment, electrical systems, general maintenance, and even in the crew’s living quarters. The agency also noted the tanker is not built to withstand severe winter conditions that often plague the Baltic Sea.

The detention order means that the ship is prohibited from leaving port until each serious safety flaw is rectified.

Finland's National Bureau of Investigation (NBI), which is leading the investigation into the suspected sabotage of undersea cables, has identified eight crew members of the ‘Eagle S’ as suspects. They are suspected of offences including aggravated sabotage and aggravated interference of telecommunications infrastructure. All eight crew members have been confined to the ship.

The NBI says that it is continuing to interview crew members and conduct examinations of the ship. It says the initial investigation is likely to take weeks yet. The agency said last week that its investigation of the area around the damaged cables found a 100 kilometre long trail carved into the seabed, likely from a dragging anchor.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo held a meeting of parliamentary party leaders last Wednesday to provide a briefing on Baltic Sea security issues, including the recent suspected sabotage of undersea energy and data cables. After the meeting, Orpo told reporters it was a matter of keeping everyone up to date.

"These are common issues for all of us, and I wanted to give them a status update about the investigation of the damaged cables in the Baltic Sea. I am also concerned about Russia’s ‘shadow fleet.’ Efforts to address this issue on a broad front with the EU and NATO are now being sought.”

Orpo also updated party leaders on the situation along Finland’s long land border with Russia.

“The situation on the eastern border is unchanged, and we cannot reopen the border.”

Finland closed all of its land border crossings with Russia just over a year ago.

The meeting also included the situation in Ukraine and potential conflicts with the incoming Trump administration in the United States.

"It is important that Ukraine is able to defend itself and that Russia does not gain the upper hand in the war. The situation there is still serious."

The damaged Estlink 2 electricity cable could strain Finnish energy supplies. That is the latest assessment from the cable operator Fingrid. The undersea cable running between Estonia and Finland was damaged on Christmas Day.

Electricity Operations Director Tuomas Rauhala:

“On a typical winter's frosty day, despite the damage to EstLink 2, there is enough electricity available if the technology works reliably. If the weather becomes exceptionally cold and there is no wind at the same time, the importance of flexibility in consumption to secure the sufficiency of electricity becomes central.”

Fingrid notes that on a normal winter day the damaged Estlink 2 will have a minor impact on electricity supply “and electricity is estimated to be sufficient in Finland.” However, it warns that an extended bout of cold and windless weather or if several power plants or transmission connections were to fail, then “the situation becomes tense, and intermittent power shortages are possible.”

Nope. That was in essence the answer from a Finnish court last week to a request to release the oil tanker ‘Eagle S.’ The request was made by lawyer representing the ship's owner, the United Arab Emirates-based company Caravella LLC FZ.

It looks like the ship’s owner will probably have a hard time getting the ‘Eagle S’ back. Finnish national grid operator Fingrid has gone to court seeking to seize the tanker in order to secure its claims for damages related to the damaged EstLink 2 power cable. The national investigation agency, NBI, has also filed a seizure claim. Interesting to note that the attempts to seize the tanker focus on the vessel itself and do not include its cargo of sanctioned Russian oil.

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The anchor belonging to the oil tanker Eagle S has been located on the Baltic seafloor, according to Finland’s national broadcaster Yle. It reports that the anchor was located and recovered with the help of a special Swedish vessel. Finnish authorities believe the oil tanker dragged its anchor, damaging an energy cable and four nearby data cables. The anchor will not get a thorough going over by Finnish investigators.

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A former Swedish defense minister is urging the government to trigger NATO’s Article 4 over the security situation in the Baltic Sea. Article 4 is intended for emergencies or other dire or urgent situations. If invoked, the member nation is essentially calling for emergency meetings over military matters when "the territorial integrity, political independence, or security of any of the parties is threatened." Former defense minister and current defense critic for the Swedish Social Democrats, Peter Hultqvist, said Article 4 is required because it is one security incident after another in the Baltic.

“These various hybrid warfare activities just do not stop, and we cannot have a situation where we react to incident after incident without looking at the situation as a whole.”

NATO

NATO began increasing its presence in the Baltic Sea last week. That is a direct response to a series of incidents where underwater cables have been damaged, most recently by an oil tanker belonging to Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet.’

The military alliance will deploy naval vessels and aircraft to patrol near underwater energy and data cable sites across the Baltic in order to act as a deterrent against any other sabotage attempts. NATO will use ships and aircraft from its own Baltic fleet as well as naval assets from member nations. The ships will remain on mission until at least April.

The Director of The European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats (Hybrid CoE), Teija Tiilikainen, said the NATO deployment in the Baltic sends a clear message.

“NATO sends a message to hostile states that hybrid threats are also perceived as existential in such a way that, in certain situations, NATO's Article Five could be invoked. Hostile states look for loopholes in the protection of NATO allies. They use means for which there is no common playbook.”

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It isn’t just NATO; the ten-nation Joint Expeditionary Force is also responding to the increasingly tense security situation in the Baltic. The JEF has activated Nordic Warden, an AI-based system assessing data from a number of sources, including transponders on each vessel, to calculate the risk posed by each ship. In particular, each vessel in Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ will be closely monitored. The JEF says its efforts will “reinforce existing and planned NATO responses.”

“If a potential risk is assessed, the system will monitor the suspicious vessel in real time and immediately send out a warning, which will be shared with JEF participant nations as well as NATO Allies.”

Britain leads the ten-member alliance. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer:

“I am pleased we are launching this cutting-edge technology so soon after the JEF Summit to enhance European security and deliver on our Plan for Change.”

Nordic Warden was activated last week under JEF protocols, which provide a series of options to the Alliance that can be activated in order to protect against potential threats. The initiative highlights how the JEF is using innovative technologies to boost collective European security while supporting and complementing NATO’s own operations.”

Run out of JEF headquarters in the UK, the system will monitor vessels of interest with a focus on 22 specific areas. They include the English Channel, the North Sea, the Kattegat Strait, and the Baltic Sea.

The Joint Expeditionary Force is comprised of 10 nations: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK.

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Preparations are already underway in Sweden to contribute to NATO’s Baltic Sea security mission.

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson:

“There is work going on now among the allies to see what resources might be needed. It is clear that we have important resources and capabilities in the Baltic Sea.”

🇸🇪🇩🇰/ 🇷🇺

The Swedish Coast Guard has raised the alarm over two vessels, both Russian registered, that appeared to be circulating around the Kattegat Strait between Sweden and Denmark last week.

Command Centre Officer Klas Loven spoke to TV4 Nyheterna:

“We have informed the relevant authorities and the Danish Coast Guard.”

Swedish authorities say the two ships appear to be sailing basically in circles in a small area of the Kattegat.

Since the recent cable breaks in the Baltic Sea, Swedish and Danish authorities have heightened surveillance of all ships in the area.

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Baltic Sea NATO member nations will hold a summit on maritime security this week. The summit will be held in Helsinki and will be co-hosted by Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal. According to a press release from the Finnish president’s office, the meeting will focus on "measures required to secure the critical underwater infrastructure" and “NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea and responding to the threat posed by Russia’s shadow fleet.” The meeting begins on Tuesday. Along with the leaders of Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Germany, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and Executive Vice-President of the European Commission Henna Virkkunen will also attend.

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Swedish authorities have found drag marks, likely from an anchor, near the undersea Nordbalt power cable running between Sweden and Lithuania. The news was confirmed by Sweden’s Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin, who said the suspicion is that it was a sabotage attempt by the Chinese freighter Yi Peng 3. That is the ship that was detained in the Kattegat Strait for a month before being boarded, inspected, and the crew questioned before it was allowed to continue on its journey.

🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺

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Ukraine kicked off the New Year by turning off the flow of natural gas that travels from Russia into Europe by pipeline. Up until this poin, an agreement between Russia and Ukraine had kept the gas flowing, but the Ukrainian government decided enough was enough and refused to renew the deal. The Ukrainians themselves stopped buying gas from Russia in 2015.

Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galusitchenko:

“We stopped the transit of Russian gas. It is a historic event. Russia is losing its markets and will suffer economic losses. Europe has already made the decision to give up Russian gas.”

The pipelines that run through Ukraine deliver about half of Russia’s gas deliveries into Europe. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has worked to phase out its reliance on Russian gas, which now accounts for just 8% of gas imports into the EU. However, some individual EU countries, such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, still rely on significant imports of Russian gas.

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Three billion euros are on their way from the EU to Ukraine. That is the first batch of funds taken from the interest on the massive amount of Russian funds that have been frozen by European authorities over the war in Ukraine. The news was announced by Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on Telegram.

"In this way, we implement the principle 'Russia will pay' and strengthen Ukraine's financial stability in 2025.”

And then it was confirmed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

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Denmark and Ukraine have finalized details on 538 million euros worth of weapons and ammunition that will be procured through the Ukrainian defense sector. In dispersing billions of euros of interest on frozen Russian funds, the EU put Denmark in charge of procurement using the so-called ‘Danish donations model.’ The money will help procure things like long-range strike drones, anti-tank missiles, and missile systems, anti-ship missiles, and more.

Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen:

“I am very proud of the cooperation between Denmark and Ukraine on the Danish model. I am also impressed by the speed the Ukrainian defence industry can deliver. Important materiel is now at the frontline or on its way and I encourage more nations to consider supporting Ukraine through its defence industry.”

Instead of constantly draining domestic military stockpiles for weapons donations to Ukraine, Denmark has adopted a model where it instead finances procurement of weapons and ammunition directly from Ukrainian defense contractors. This way weapons and ammunition are produced in Ukraine within quick reach of the front lines.

In this latest procurement Denmark used 390 million euros from frozen Russian funds, along with €43 million from Norway, €20 million from Sweden, and €2.7 million from Iceland. While also kicking in €125 million itself.

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There wasn’t much seasonal cheer in Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s annual New Year’s speech; rather, the tone was decidedly grim. Frederiksen warned Danes that despite historically high amounts of money flowing to defense, even more will follow. She said that there should be no doubt: “The price for Denmark's future security will be high.”

“If we give in, then we lose. That's why we're gearing up. To prevent war. And to ensure peace. It's expensive. And it will be even more expensive.”

The Danish government has already invested record-high amounts of money into defense spending, expanded conscription, begun to build out a drone warfare program, and bought new air defenses and combat vehicles. Frederiksen has been telling Danish media that the world is in a dark place with a deteriorating security situation. She says the years ahead will have “difficult decisions and priorities.” And in order to keep Denmark safe, then Danes need to prepare for bills for the country’s Defense of an order of magnitude that they have not been used to for a very long time.

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In nearby Sweden, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also struck a grim tone when he spoke at the annual Folk og Försvar conference on Sunday.

“Sweden is not at war, but there is no peace either.”

He says Sweden and its neighbours are struggling with near constant hybrid attacks from Russia.

“They are carried out with computers, money, misinformation and threats of sabotage. By all accounts, the Russian threat is long-lasting, and so must our defences be.”

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Another sign that Europe is preparing for war. The Norwegian government wants to reintroduce requirements that new buildings must include bomb shelters. It is an obligation that used to exist but was abolished after the end of the Cold War. Norwegian Justice Minister Emilie Enger Mehl says the country must prepare for the future need to “manage crises and wars.”

According to figures from the government, Norway has enough usable bomb shelter space to protect about 45% of the population. That is well below its Nordic neighbours Finland (90%) and Sweden (70%). The Danish government is currently assessing available bomb shelter space to better determine the need.

It isn’t just bomb shelters; the Norwegian government also wants to build out grain stores to hold at least three months worth of grain. Conscription will also be increased from 8,000 up to 12,000 over the next eight years. It also wants to legislate a civilian work obligation in the event of a national crisis or in the event of war.

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The Swedish military is shifting its focus almost entirely to national defense. The Swedish Armed Forces usually conduct about 150 exercises a year to practice responses to any number of different scenarios, with a hefty focus on peacekeeping efforts in war zones. However, those exercises are focusing more and more on preparing for the possibility of war on Swedish soil or in nearby European countries. The ‘enemy’ in these exercises is Russia.

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Denmark was singled out by name by Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov for what he says were efforts to escalate the war in Ukraine. Lavrov, in an with interview Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti, said weapons donations from Denmark and other European countries are continuing to fuel the conflict. He mentioned specifically Denmark’s donations of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.

Of course, the war never would have happened if Russia hadn’t launched its invasion in the first place. It could also end the war instantaneously by simply withdrawing its forces back to Russia.

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While some European countries are drastically ramping up military aid to Ukraine, Germany appears to be sitting on its hands. German media are reporting that Chancellor Olaf Scholz has vetoed a proposed three billion euro increase in aid to Ukraine for the coming year. Germany is headed for national elections next month as the German economy struggles, and the far-right, pro-Russia, AfD party appears to be picking up steam.

Ukraine’s Ambassador to Germany, Oleksii Makeiev, isn’t giving up and says he has been lobbying the Scholz government to increase its military support.

“The Russian war of aggression continues unabated against my country; the need for weapons and air defenses is acute; it is a matter of life and death.”

On Friday, Germany revealed details of another extensive weapons package that will be headed to Ukraine in the first half of the year. It includes 22 Leopard I battle tanks, 25 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, 16 howitzers, another Iris-T SLM/SLS air defense system, two additional Patriot launchers for air defense, and seven Gepard air defense tanks, along with 120,000 rounds of ammunition. Ukraine will also receive 3,500 armed drones, six ‘Sea King’ helicopters with weapons, and 250,000 rounds of artillery ammunition, among other things.

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The German government could give the armed forces permission to shoot down suspicious drones. In a draft amendment to the Aviation Security Act tabled late last week, the armed forces would be allowed to use weapons against drones in order to prevent a particularly serious or dangerous incident. The federal cabinet will discuss the draft proposal this week.

Germany has seen a serious increase in drones flying over critical infrastructure facilities, including energy, telecommunications, and transportation installations. The country’s intelligence agency has warned the drone flights are presumably “carried out by a state actor for sabotage and possibly terrorist purposes.”

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The Czech Republic plans to build on what it called a successful 2024 in supplying Ukraine with artillery shells. The country supplied roughly 1.5 million large-calibre shells to Ukraine last year, or about 4,000 per day. Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová confirms they intend to hit that mark again this year through their ammunition procurement initiative.

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Do not fly over Western Russia. That is the warning that the European Aviation Safety Agency issued to all non-European airlines late last week. The warning comes after an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger airline crashed near the city of Aktau in western Kazakhstan on Christmas Day, killing 38 people. Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized for the incident and admitted that Russian air defenses were active when the plane attempted to land in Grozny.

The European Aviation Safety Agency strongly advised all commercial airliners to avoid Russian airspace west of 60 degrees east longitude at all altitudes.

“The ongoing conflict following the Russian invasion of Ukraine poses a risk that civil aircraft in the airspace of the Russian Federation will be inadvertently targeted due to possible civil-military coordination deficits and the possibility of misidentification.”

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the EU has sanctioned Russian airlines and effectively blocked them from flying into Europe. In retaliation Russia closed its airspace to all but a few European airlines and countries.

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The US government has tabled new sanctions aimed at Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which are billed as “the most significant to date.” The sanctions target Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom as well as 183 vessels in Russia’s so-called ‘shadow fleet,’ which are used to dodge sanctions by transporting Russian oil to global markets.

Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump says preparations are underway to arrange a meeting between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump said the purpose of the meeting is to end the war in Ukraine. He did not give any details about when or where such a meeting will happen.

The incoming Trump administration in the United States believes that NATO member nations must increase their defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP). That is more than double the current requirement of 2%.

NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutte has also made recent comments calling for member nations to increase defense spending.

Specifically, for Denmark that would mean defense spending would need to be more than doubled. The Danish government claims to have met the 2% threshold via some tricky math by including military donations to Ukraine as ‘defense spending.’

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Russia continues to weaponize its energy exports. This time it is taking aim at Moldova. As of January 1, Russian state gas agency Gazprom has cut off gas supplies to the country. It is using the excuse that Moldova owes almost a billion dollars (Cdn) in gas payments. The Moldovan government believes the real figure is a fraction of that.

Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean had some harsh words for Russia when he took to his social media account.

“This is not an energy crisis; it’s a deliberately induced security crisis. The Kremlin leaves people in the Transnistrian region without power and heating in the middle of winter. We will not recognize any so-called debt invalidated by an international audit.”

Recean says Moldova is pursuing all legal options. In the meantime the EU has stepped in to help ensure Moldova has the energy it needs.

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Odds & Ends

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With a new year come changes for people driving cars, with increased costs for people with gas or diesel vehicles. Taxes on gasoline and diesel have gone up, with diesel seeing an extra increase. However, a six-month equalization tax that diesel car owners are on the hook for will be reduced. Basically, it works like this: diesel owners driving more than 15,000 kilometres per year will see life become more expensive; those driving less won’t pay as much.

Municipalities across Denmark will now have the power to create zero-emission zones within their cities. The zones, where vehicles running on gas or diesel are generally not allowed to be driven, are already in play in Denmark’s biggest cities. The ban is enforced with stiff fines.

The new year has also brought another significant change: Denmark has removed the Three Crowns, Sweden’s national symbol, from the Danish coat of arms. Denmark has been using the Three Crowns as a symbol of the union between Sweden, Denmark, and Norway, even though that union fell apart in 1523. The symbol had, up until now, been a point of friction between the Nordic neighbours.

There were a record number of train passengers over Christmas in Denmark. The national railway operator, DSB, says from December 20 to 27, some 230,000 train tickets were sold, a new holiday record. DSB says that is 12% more tickets sold than over Christmas 2023.

Tourists have been flocking to Denmark’s west coast. According to Destination North Sea, it wasn’t just increasing numbers of tourists during the prime summer months, but increases were also seen during the shoulder seasons.

Director Maja Graver:

“When more guests come, there are more cafes, restaurants, and museums that can stay open, and this means that we now also have good things to offer for the guests who come out of season.”

With just under ten million overnight stays from January to October last year, the region is on track for a record year for tourism.

Inflation nudged upward slightly in Denmark in December. Statistics Denmark calculates inflation last month at 1.9%, up slightly from November’s 1.6%. Food prices, rent, and the cost of electricity are pushing inflation up while package holidays and the cost of cars are pulling it down.

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A sign of the times. The Mint of Finland is ending all operations early this year due to global changes in payment methods and changing business conditions. The Nordic nations are largely moving away from the use of cash, making businesses, like a mint that makes coins, more and more obsolete. The mint had a contract with the Danish Central Bank to make 1, 2, 5, 10, and 20 krone coins. That business will now be moved to Spain’s Real Casa de La Moneda.

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On Christmas Day, Helsinki was shaken by the strongest earthquake ever recorded in the city. The quake was measured as a 1.1 on the Richter scale. It rumbled across the Finnish capital at around 6:30 and lasted for about a minute. Earthquakes are not super unusual for Helsinki. There were two of less than one magnitude last September.

A record number of people opted to travel by train in Finland last year. National rail operator VR says there were 15.3 million long-distance train trips taken in 2024, a 1.3% year-over-year increase. The rail company says it saw increases in both business and leisure travel.

CEO Elisa Markula:

"The popularity of train travel is at a record high, and night train traffic in particular reached a historic high in passenger numbers in December.”

She added that more and more people were buying their train tickets online. Last year, about 95% of all domestic long-distance ticket sales were made online.

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