Monday Morning News & Notes
Climate Alarm Bells Sound. More Weapons for Ukraine.
*Editor’s Note - After three years I have - finally - added a paid subscriber option at a fairly low price for those of you who enjoy this newsletter and feel moved to support my work. Also a BIG Thank You to those who have already become paid subscribers.*
**It is a winter vacation week here in Denmark so we won’t be publishing again until next week as we enjoy some family time together. Have a good Vinterferie! We will see you next week.**
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
🇸🇪 🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇫🇮 🌍
Scientists are sounding the alarm that ocean currents like the crucial Gulf Stream are “catastrophically close” to a breaking point, which would result in disastrous weather ramifications.
A study from the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands says ocean currents are in danger of collapsing due to the sheer influx of fresh water from melting glaciers and polar ice sheets. In the computer models, the researchers saw "early warning signs" that the development is continuing to a "tipping point", where the system of ocean currents collapses completely.
Researcher René von Westen:
“The impact on the climate will be devastating. Some of the changes are quick and dramatic. In Sweden, for example, we see temperatures falling by up to 20 degrees within a century.”
It is not just a catastrophic weather shift for Northern Europe, the study found that it could also mean an ocean level rise of up to one meter.
The study does not provide any answers on exactly when the collapse of the ocean currents could occur. It only says its modeling indicates that it will likely happen within a hundred years.
“It will seriously disrupt the Earth's current climate and we must stay far away from this because the impact will be devastating.”
You can find the study HERE.
🌍
January 2024 has emerged as yet another harbinger of troubling times ahead, with the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service declaring it the warmest January on record. This disconcerting announcement comes as temperatures soared 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average for the month, surpassing the previous record set in 2020 by 0.12°C. Furthermore, this spike in temperatures represents a staggering 1.66°C increase from estimates for the benchmark average in the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
It also marks eight consecutive months that have recorded the warmest temperatures on record for each respective month of the year.
The unsettling trend extends beyond Europe, with regions like eastern Canada, north-western Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia experiencing temperatures well above average, exacerbating the already precarious situation. Conversely, areas such as western Canada, the central USA, and parts of eastern Siberia grapple with below-average temperatures, highlighting the unpredictable and uneven nature of climate change's effects.
While 2023 witnessed record-breaking marine temperatures attributed to El Niño, the weakening of this phenomenon has failed to mitigate the rising temperatures. European scientists caution that marine air temperatures persist at "unusually high levels.” underscoring the persistent threat posed by climate change to our oceans and ecosystems.
Amidst the polar ice caps, the situation remains dire. While Arctic sea ice levels remained close to average, Antarctic sea ice coverage plummeted to the sixth lowest mark on record for January, falling 18% below average. All this paints a dire picture of our planet's escalating climate crisis further emphasizing the urgent need for global action to address the unfolding climate crisis before it's too late.
🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇳🇴 🇩🇰
While temperatures plunged well below freezing and the snow fell thick and fast across the Nordic countries this winter, that will become a rarer and rarer event. That is according to a new climate change study by World Weather Attribution that found that without human-caused global warming the winter across Scandinavia would have been four degrees colder. To put it another way, the study says with the 1.2°C warmer climate cold snowy winter days are now five times less likely to occur. Conversely, as global warming continues cold snowy winters in countries like Sweden, Finland, and Norway will become even more unlikely.
“Climate change does not mean that cold waves will no longer happen. In fact, less severe and less frequent cold waves may be more impactful than past ones if risk perception and preparedness decrease due to the less frequent event occurrences.”
Denmark wasn’t included in the study but Adrian Lema, the Head of Climate Research at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told DR the study’s findings certainly ring true here as well.
“There is good reason to assume, with this study, that the cold winter in Denmark would have been even colder if it had not been for global warming. The weather in Denmark can be hot in some years and cold in other years, and it will always be like that. But in general, our climate is getting warmer. And this means that the winters have also become significantly warmer and will be even warmer in the future.”
DMI’s own research shows that climate change has made winter in Denmark about a month shorter than it used to be.
“We can look forward to days with snow being roughly halved towards the end of this century. The conditions for snow will still be there, but the snow will come less often. More rain is coming. And when the snow does fall, it doesn't stay for as long as it used to.”
It is quite an interesting study and you can find it HERE.
🇩🇰
Denmark’s Environment Minister Magnus Heunicke says more fiscal help is coming for flood-ravaged communities. Flood damages from last October’s historic tidal surge remain unaddressed across a number of municipalities. Civic politicians say the sheer cost of fixing all the damages is beyond municipal budgets and monies offered by the Danish government so far have fallen well short of what is needed.
The Danish government initially tabled a 125 million Danish kroner flood repair find but the money was capped at 25% of the cost of each claim.
Heunicke says a new agreement has unlocked a 500 million Danish kroner loan option available to the country’s hardest-hit communities.
"We saw extreme conditions in October. The Natural Damage Council declared storm surge in 27 municipalities. Buildings, houses and roads were washed away, and the affected municipalities have a big task ahead of them with reconstruction. Now we are giving the hardest-hit municipalities a financial helping hand.”
But don’t count on the money flowing quickly. The funds will be available this spring with a response expected on each filed claim “before the summer holidays” meaning repair work at best won’t begin until at least August. The monies are again capped at 25% of the municipal repair expenses.
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DSB, Denmark's state-owned railway operator, has reported a significantly larger profit for 2023, buoyed by an uptick in passenger numbers compared to the previous year. According to DSB's accounts, the company earned 425 million Danish kroner before tax, marking an impressive 85% increase over the previous year's earnings.
One of the contributing factors to DSB's improved financial performance was a notable increase in passenger numbers, which reached 162 million in 2023, an impressive 9% rise from the previous year.
DSB attributes this increase in passenger numbers to various factors, including the popularity of its budget-friendly orange tickets. The rail company is planning to build on that success this year by increasing the number of orange tickets from seven to eight million.
🇫🇮
Some hopeful climate news from Finland. The latest data from the Finnish Natural Resources Institute reveals a promising trend for Finland's forests: logging decreased by 9% last year, compared to the previous year, reverting to levels akin to 2020. This decline in deforestation is welcome news, particularly in terms of the forests' vital role in absorbing carbon dioxide. Finland's forests, which serve as the nation's largest carbon sink, have been pivotal in offsetting emissions, but since 2021 the country's land use transitioned from being a carbon sink to a source of emissions as carbon absorbed by forests no longer offset emissions from agricultural and other sources.
As Finland works towards its ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2035, insights into the status of the country’s forests as a carbon sink are eagerly awaited. These projections, slated for release in May, will offer critical guidance in shaping policies and practices aimed at preserving and enhancing Finland's forests.
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As Finland endured its coldest January in eight years, households grappled with the harsh reality of higher-than-usual electricity bills. With temperatures plunging to bone-chilling lows, such as the recorded -44.3 degrees Celsius in Lapland's Enontekiö, the demand for energy to keep homes warm surged. Fluctuating hourly spot prices for electricity added another layer of unpredictability. As temperatures plunged and people turned the heat up electricity prices surged at times to over two euros per kilowatt-hour (kWh). How much each bill was depended on individual electricity contracts, how much energy was used, and when.
In response to the hefty energy bills, electricity companies extended payment deadlines for customers, offering some relief amidst the winter chill. Households have also leveraged technology to try and keep costs down by using energy-tracking apps and investing in energy-efficient appliances.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
🇪🇺
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says influenza is by far the most active respiratory virus across Europe with infection activity above baseline in every country reporting data.
“After marking the start of the seasonal influenza epidemic in the EU/EEA in week 50, seasonal influenza continued to circulate at higher levels than COVID and RSV in week 4. With the continued co-circulation of all three respiratory viruses, it remains essential to continue to monitor the impact on hospital and ICU admissions closely. The combined effect of co-circulating acute respiratory pathogens is likely to convey an increased burden of severe respiratory disease in the EU/EEA, which may result in further significant pressure on healthcare systems in the coming weeks.”
🇩🇰
There has been a big increase in the number of people fleeing Denmark’s dark wet winter for more sunny climates during the winter vacation weeks. Several large travel agencies say their fun in the sun travel packages have either sold out entirely or are very close to it, for this week and next. One company, Bravo Tours, says there has been a 20% increase in sales year over year for Vinterferie.
While escaping the Danish winter gloom is certainly a factor, travel experts say years of COVID travel restrictions may also be playing a role as people charge back out into the world.
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Another flock of farmed birds will have to be destroyed as the bird flu sweeps through another farm in Denmark, Some 40,000 chickens on a farm south of Aabenraa were destroyed over the weekend according to the Danish Veterinary and Food Administration.
The bird flu is fatal to birds but rarely transmits to humans.
🇷🇴
Romania has declared a national measles epidemic with six deaths so far, four children and two adults. So far 4,679 cases have been reported. According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, “the vast majority of cases are in unvaccinated individuals.” The Romanian Ministry of Health has launched a measles vaccination effort alongside an information campaign aimed at parents. Measles vaccination coverage has been decreasing for the past ten years in Romania.
Measles infections have been reported in 12 other European countries so far this year but not anywhere near the numbers being seen in Romania.
🇺🇦/ 🇷🇺 War
🇺🇸 🇪🇺
Former U.S. President Donald Trump sent shockwaves across Europe and among America’s NATO allies on Sunday. At a political rally, he said that under his presidency if Russia attacked a NATO ally that is not spending 2% of its GDP on defense not only would the U.S. not respond militarily but he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want.”
In response, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke to Norway’s NRK:
“NATO stands ready to defend all allies. Any attack on NATO will be met with a united and forceful response. I assume that the United States, regardless of who wins the presidential election, will remain a strong and dedicated NATO ally.”
Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz took to social media to say Trump is emboldening Russia and undermining both NATO's credibility and strength.
“No election campaign is an excuse to play with the security of the alliance.”
While Stoltenberg struck a diplomatic response to Trump’s comments, behind the scenes things are being taken a little more seriously. German media outlet Handelsblatt is reporting NATO could take over responsibility for coordinating military aid to Ukraine instead of the United States. One of the alleged reasons for the move is the possibility of another Trump presidency.
Trump has already weaponized MAGA Republican politicians to freeze American military funding to Ukraine.
🇸🇪/ 🇭🇺
Tensions between Sweden and Hungary over its reluctance to ratify Sweden’s NATO membership are overflowing into the EU parliament. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán wants his 12 Hungarian EU members of parliament to join the ECR. The European Conservatives and Reformists Party currently includes, among others, the Swedish Democrats (SD). The chair of SD Charlie Weimers told Politico that if Hungary joins the ECR the Swedes will likely make for the exit.
Weimers says the right-wing bloc has a dim view of the Hungarian government.
“The image of Hungary has deteriorated significantly among the right-wing parties in the Nordics after the decisions the country made after Russia's full-scale invasion, including the country's reluctance to ratify Sweden's NATO application.”
The Swedish Democrats are not alone with others telling Politico that Hungary would have to “change its attitude” on the war in Ukraine to even be considered for the ECR.
🇳🇴
Norway's Minister of Defense, Bjørn Arild Gram, delivered a sobering assessment of the current global security landscape, asserting that since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Norway and its NATO allies have taken their eyes off the proverbial ball. In a frank speech delivered in Oslo, Gram highlighted the unsettling trend, until recently, of dwindling defense budgets, shrinking military personnel, and neglected military infrastructure. He emphasized that the world, particularly the values of democracy and freedom, is facing grave peril in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Gram minced no words in his critique of Russia's trajectory, asserting that President Putin's authoritarian regime has snuffed out any seeds of democracy that once sprouted in the nation.
“This development is in Putin's favor. He does not have to deal with a domestic public opinion that demands an end to the madness. We must understand that the seeds of Russia's path toward democracy after the fall of communism have long since been crushed. As far as we can see, there is no indication that Russia will become like us. The few Russians who dare to protest are imprisoned or sent to war. There they are used as cannon fodder. There is no opposition, there is no freedom of the press, there is no civil society that is allowed to represent any form of counterforce against the increasingly authoritarian regime.”
With Russia finding allies in countries like China, Gram warned of a burgeoning authoritarian alliance aimed at undermining global democracy and the international legal order. He underscored the urgency for Norway and its allies to confront the stark reality of Russia's military aggression and its ramifications for global security.
In response to these mounting threats, Gram outlined Norway's commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities, including significant increases in defense spending and efforts to modernize and expand its military forces. Gram stressed the importance of regional cooperation, advocating for a Nordic Joint Force Command to enhance defense coordination among Nordic countries. He added that Norway would take responsibility as a naval power among the combined Nordic military forces.
“We will not only defend Norway in the north. We shall not only contribute forces to the collective defense of allies in the south. We will also contribute forces to defend Finland and Sweden in the east. Norway's security must be defended every day. On and outside Norwegian territory.”
It is also important, he said, that Sweden join NATO as quickly as possible “It really cannot wait any longer.”
🇳🇴 🇺🇦
Norway is looking to donate more air defense systems to Ukraine. The Norwegian Parliament has been asked to approve the donation of another ten NASAMS launch units and four fire control centers. Those would be sourced from Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace, another sign of the strategy to buy weapons directly from industry for Ukraine as opposed to draining local army supplies.
The proposed NASAMS donation is estimated to be worth 3.45 billion Norwegian kroner (about $440 million Cdn).
Defense Minister Bjørn Arild Gram
“The Norwegian NASAMs system saves Ukrainian lives and prevents the destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The Russian missile and drone attacks are extensive and brutal, so air defense is absolutely decisive for Ukraine. At the same time, I am concerned that we reacquire air defenses for our own defense as quickly as possible.”
🇫🇮 🇺🇦
Finland continues to keep up a steady stream of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. The Finnish Ministry of Defense confirmed on Friday that a 22nd weapons package is on its way to Ukraine. As is the Finnish custom it won’t reveal what is in this or any other donated weapons package. It says this latest batch of defense materials is valued at €190 million and was sourced from Finland’s domestic defense industry using money set aside in a Ukraine fund.
Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen:
“There is a lot of know-how in the domestic industry, and we are working in the defense administration to ensure that this know-how and capacity can be used more effectively in supporting Ukraine as well. One example of this is our domestic ammunition production.”
The Defense Ministry recently announced it is working with Nordic ammunition maker Nammo to increase ammunition production in order to refill domestic stocks and increase the flow of artillery shells to Ukraine.
Häkkänen says the Finnish government is working on a more sustainable way to continue to support Ukraine.
“New ways to support Ukraine in the long term must be found. We are currently preparing a long-term plan for support to Ukraine.”
Finland will also join the artillery and demining coalition of countries operating under the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.
🇫🇮/ 🇷🇺
When the snow in southern Finland begins its annual thaw, concerns are rising it could see a major shift in migrants on the Russian side trying to cross the border illegally. The Finnish government recently extended the closure of the border with Russia to at least April 14. Finnish newspaper Ilta-Sanomat points to a government memo saying that lifting restrictions could lead to an influx from Russia of "at least around 10,000-20,000 asylum seekers per year". Even with the snowfall and freezing temperatures several groups of undocumented migrants have dared the elements and hiked across the border from Russia into Finland.
Finnish President Sauli Niinistö when addressing parliament recently compared the international regulations concerning asylum seekers to a Trojan horse. If someone wants to misuse the framework of rules, he said they can use it to direct large numbers of people into the territory of an opponent. In his speech, he referenced the “coming spring” hinting at potential challenges ahead as the weather changes and the snow melts possibly altering border dynamics.
North Karelia Border Guard Deputy Commander Samuli Murtonen spoke to Yle:
"The risk is certainly higher and people are more likely to try to cross the land border illegally. This is something we are anticipating and preparing for. We are monitoring the situation closely. What, where and how, I will not go into that. We will be prepared in case something out of the ordinary occurs."
Traditionally the Finnish winter starts to fade in mid-April when the snow melt begins.
🇷🇺/ 🇩🇰 🇳🇴 🇸🇪 🇫🇮 🇮🇸 🇨🇦 🇺🇸
Much like it did a year ago, Russia is once again threatening to withdraw its participation in the International Arctic Council. The council is an important forum for Arctic matters including climate, environmental protection, health, and marine cooperation. Eight countries sit on the council, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the USA. In addition, the council consists of six permanent groups representing the indigenous people of the Arctic.
The council paused operations entirely after Russia invaded Ukraine and then resumed limited operations in June of 2022 but only on projects where there is no Russian participation.
In September, Russia withdrew from the smaller Barents Euro-Arctic Council and according to a press release from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs it would now pursue its own national interests and goals in the Arctic.
Experts watching the situation note that while Russia is positioning itself, at least on a propaganda level, as itself versus the West it also has no interest in Arctic cooperation coming apart at the seams. Much of Russia’s oil and gas revenue comes from Arctic regions.
🇺🇸 🇹🇷
The United States Congress approved a $23 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Notably, the sale wasn’t opposed by a single senator.
U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake:
“Congress’s decision this week to approve Türkiye’s acquisition of 40 new and 79 upgraded F-16 aircraft is a great step forward. Türkiye’s F-16 fleet is critical to NATO’s strength, ensuring future interoperability among allies.”
The Biden administration had been using the potential sale of the F-16s as behind-the-scenes leverage to sway Turkey into stopping its opposition to Sweden’s NATO bid and to ratify its ascension protocols, which it did.
🇺🇦
Speaking of F-16s, the first photo of a donated F-16 fighter jet sporting new Ukrainian Air Force markings has surfaced on social media. The picture was taken on one of the European air fields that is busy training Ukrainian pilots on the more modern warcraft.
Denmark and the Netherlands are leading a coalition of countries in donating F-16 jets and getting the Ukrainian pilots trained on them. Between Denmark, Norway, and the Netherlands somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 F-16 fighter jets have been donated to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian pilot going under his call sign “Phantom” spoke to the Voice of America:
"Our pilots are very impressed. This aircraft has simply exceeded their expectations. Even with the amount of information they have received during their training, they already see great prospects for how this aircraft will help our Air Force increase the capabilities of our combat aviation."
Odds & Ends
🇩🇰
This is winter vacation week (vinterferie) in Denmark and Copenhagen Airport says it will see a big increase in the number of passengers. The airport is estimating that around 200,000 people used the airport over the weekend and over a million passengers will flow through during the next two weeks.
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Despite posting a robust profit of 27 billion Danish kroner (about $5.2 billion Cdn) for 2023, concerning signs of trouble ahead are shaking investor confidence in Danish shipping giant Maersk. When trading opened on Friday morning the company’s shares dropped by 12% as investors looked past the hefty profit margin to signs of potentially rough fiscal waters.
Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes through the Red Sea, including missile attacks on several Maersk vessels, along with a shortage of shipping containers, saw the company’s rosy finances tumble to a three billion kroner deficit in the last quarter of the year.
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The microbrewery boom appears to have ended in Denmark. Breweries big and small have been popping out of the woodwork across the country since the new millennium. However, the Danish Brewery Association says there were 23 fewer breweries in Denmark last year with even more seriously looking at closing their doors. The association blames inflation, the rising cost of new materials, and energy prices.
🇫🇷 📱
The mayor of the quaint French town of Seine-Port has had enough of people walking around his town with their eyes glued to their smartphones. In a move that's sure to raise a few eyebrows, residents have voted in favor of restricting phone usage in public spaces. Mayor Vincent Paul-Petit says his town is seeking to reclaim its public spaces from what some have dubbed the "smartphone invasion."
Of the town’s 2,000 residents only 277 voted with the initiative passing with 54% support.
However, unlike stern police enforcement, these rules are more akin to gentle nudges towards mindfulness. With no legal framework to back them up, the restrictions rely on social norms and community support. The mayor envisions a collaborative effort, with local businesses posting no mobile phone stickers outside their shops and politely nudging phone-distracted customers back to the present moment.
The proposal has sparked lively debate among the town's residents. For some, it's a welcomed initiative to combat excessive screen time and foster a sense of presence. Yet, for others, the restrictions feel like an encroachment on personal freedom. Unsurprisingly, opinions are more or less split along generational lines.
🇩🇰The Week Ahead Round Up🇩🇰
Monday, February 12:
The Winter Jazz Festival continues with concerts in 600 venues in Copenhagen and across Denmark.
The festival runs until February 25.
You can learn more HERE.
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The Nordic region’s largest restaurant festival ‘Dining Week’ continues. Participating restaurants across Denmark will offer special three to five-course menus at a fixed special price.
Dining week goes until February 18.
You can find more information including a list of all the participating restaurants HERE.
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Egeskov Slot on Fyn holds its mesmerizing Luminis Light Festival every night this week. It begins at 4:30 p.m. and goes until 9:00 p.m. We go every year and it is fantastic!
Find out more information HERE.
Tuesday, February 13:
FC København meets defending champions Manchester City in the first match of the Champions League round of 16.
The game takes place at Parken arena in Copenhagen at 9:00 p,m.
The game is sold out.
Thursday, February 15:
Matador: The Musical premiers in Copenhagen. It is based on the VERY popular classic Danish TV series from 1978.
The musical takes the stage at Falkoner Salen at Falkoner Allé 9 in Copenhagen’s Frederiksberg neighborhood.
You can find showtimes, buy tickets, and find more information HERE.
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The LEGO Festival of Play opens in Copenhagen. There are 11 interactive play zones with activities for adults and children. There will also be a LEGO museum and some live music.
The event runs from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. beginning today and ending on the 18th.
It takes place at the Bella Center at Center Boulevard 9, in Copenhagen.
You can buy tickets HERE.
Friday, February 16:
If you fancy gin then head to Copenhagen’s Gin Festival, which begins today. The two-day event offers up to 230 different gin and tonic brands as well as the opportunity to mingle with other gin lovers.
The event runs Friday and Saturday at Forum København at Julius Thomsens Plads 1 in Frederiksberg.
You can find out more information HERE.
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Danish football Super League action returns with Viborg hosting OB today.
The match begins at 7:00 p.m. at Energi Viborg Arena.
You can buy tickets HERE.
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The Copenhagen Light Festival continues and tonight the municipality has issued an invitation for couples who want to get married to tie the knot by the PixelEarth display in the harbour. Festival organizers will even throw in video and drone footage of the ceremony.
Marriages can be held from 6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. at the light installation near Christian IV’s bridge in Copenhagen.
You can find out more and book a wedding HERE.
Saturday, February 17:
The Danish Melodi Grand Prix takes place today. The competition is a precursor to the annual EuroVision contest, which is hosted in Malmö, Sweden this year.
At the Danish Melodi Grand Prix, eight artists will compete to qualify as Denmark’s entry in the EuroVision contest.
It takes place at 8:00 p.m. at the DR Koncerthus on Ørestads Boulevard 13 in Copenhagen.
Learn more HERE.
Sunday, February 18:
Two fun runs, including a family run, will be held at the Copenhagen Light Festival today. The route takes runners past 16 of the light displays. Runners are encouraged to wear all sorts of light gadgets and event organizers will give each competitor an LED light chain to wear during the run.
The runs take place between 6:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. They start at Ofelia Plads, Kvæsthusbroen, in Copenhagen.
You can find more information and register HERE.
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In Danish Super League football action FC København takes on Silkeborg IF at Jysk Park arena in Silkeborg. The game begins at 4:00 p.m.
You can find out more information and buy tickets HERE.