Friday Morning News & Notes
Polar Ice Cap melt. Tanker trouble. Vaccination season in the Nordics.
**Editor’s note - Next week is a vacation week in Denmark so I am sending this out a little early so I can spend time with family next week. Thanks for reading and for those of you in Denmark enjoy the ferie**
🍃Environment & Energy⚡️
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Last month was the second hottest September on record in Europe and around the world, according to the EU climate change service, Copernicus. The average surface air temperature globally last month was 16.75°C, which is 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 September average and 1.54°C above the benchmark pre-industrial average. That makes the 14th month since July of last year in which the global average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This means that 2024 is well on track to become the warmest year on record.
Copernicus Deputy Director Samantha Burgess:
“September 2024 was the second warmest both globally and for Europe. The extreme rainfall events of this month, something we are observing more and more often, have been made worse by a warmer atmosphere, leading to more intense rainfall with months’ worth of rain falling in just a few days. The risk of extreme rainfall will continue to increase with rising temperatures; the sooner we reach NetZero emissions, the sooner we can mitigate this risk.”
September 2024 also saw sea surface temperatures reach 20.83°C, the second highest ever recorded for the month.
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Sea ice levels at the Earth’s polar ice caps in September were the second lowest ever recorded for the month.
According to glaciologists from the Danish Meteorological Institute of the two, the Arctic ice cap is in the worst shape as it is shrinking from every side.
“It is particularly noteworthy that the 18 lowest extents of summer sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere have occurred in the past 18 years.”
Thanks to climate change, the Arctic has suffered a very wet summer, which has been exacerbated by record high water surface temperatures, causing the sea ice to “decrease rapidly.”
On the opposite side of the planet in Antarctica, the sea ice is also struggling with the extend of the polar ice cap, well below the 1981-2010 average. With spring in full swing in that part of the world, it is unlikely the sea ice will spread any further this month. The institute says it is very likely the sea ice in Antarctica will be the second lowest maximum spread on record.
It is helpful to think of the two polar ice caps as the world’s refrigerators. All the white snow and ice helps moderate global temperatures by reflecting heat back into space. As they melt, there is less surface area, so less reflected heat, and that contributes to more intense heat waves elsewhere on the planet.
🇷🇺/ 🇪🇺🇸🇪🇩🇰
Serious concerns about the risks posed by Russia’s shadow fleet of aging oil tankers are being raised in a new report from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). It says those tankers present a serious threat of a catastrophic oil spill resulting in serious environmental damages and substantial costs.
With the biggest of the shadow tankers able to carry 100,000 tonnes of crude oil, the agency estimates clean up costs could reach $1.6 billion in U.S. dollars. With the vessels having highly suspect insurance coverage, countries nearby would be stuck with the clean-up costs.
“‘Shadow’ tankers have already been involved in 50 incidents in the Danish Straits all the way to Malaysia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These aging vessels frequently operate with inadequate or no protection and indemnity (P&I) insurance while transporting vast volumes of crude oil on high-traffic routes through narrow straits close to the shoreline while concealing their location. It is only a matter of time before a catastrophic ecological event unfolds, leaving coastal nations to bear the burden for years to come and most likely paying the cleanup bill.”
It says the fleet of tankers sailing under flags of convenience with concealed ownership and dubious insurance coverage has grown to 294 vessels. The CREA says in the first eight months of the year, an average of three shadow tankers loaded with sanctioned oil departed Russian ports every day. They now account for the transport of 72% of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports, as the Kremlin uses them to dodge western sanctions.
Shadow fleet tankers transiting the Kattegat, Danish waters between the Baltic and North Seas, have increased by 277% this year. Traffic is up 355% in the Dover and Gibraltar Straits.
The CREA is recommending that countries enforce mandatory P&I insurance coverage for their territorial waters and exclusive economic zones. This would mean shadow fleet tankers entering natural marine choke points like the Kattegat Straits, the Panama Canal, or other territorial waterways would have to show proof of the required insurance coverage to be allowed to continue their journey.
It is also recommending the environmental shipping standards be enforced. This would mean that nations could impose minimum environmental standards on vessels transiting through their waterways. Vessels not up to standard would be turned away.
“This will help regulate 'shadow' fleet operations and drive up costs for non-compliant vessels.”
The report in full can be found HERE.
🇩🇰
One of Denmark’s best-known architects is calling for a rethink on how we build and live in light of the climate crisis. Dan Stubbergaard, founder of the architecture firm Cobe, says the architecture industry needs to transition to a more sustainable model, but people as a whole need to also adjust their expectations for the way they live.
“We have gotten used to living in more space and building more. If we are to succeed in the transition in relation to the climate crisis, the biodiversity crisis, and the resource crisis, we can no longer consume as many square meters and build as much new as we have been used to.”
Stubbergaard has been behind several major projects in Copenhagen, including the redevelopment of Nordhavn, Nørreport Station, and the recently completed Papirøen. He says in hindsight and with the climate in mind he would have tackled the Papirøen development much differently. Specifically, Stubbergaard says he would have avoided climate-damaging materials like concrete and steel and opted for something much more sustainable.
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The impact of Denmark’s soaking wet spring is being felt on the potato market. Statistics Denmark says in June of this year grocery stores paid 70% more to buy potatoes from Danish farmers. For consumers in Denmark, the hit isn’t quite that severe yet. The statistics agency says in the same month grocery store potato prices were only up 28.7%.
Agency Section Head Simone Thun:
“This year, the wet spring has meant smaller potato production and thus fewer Danish potatoes, and that may have been a contributing factor to the increase in the price of potatoes.”
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More cracks are appearing in Denmark’s green tripartite agreement designed to dramatically reduce nitrogen leakage into the marine environment. The agreement struck between farmers, environmentalists, and the Danish government was much celebrated when it was announced, but it now seems to be falling apart. The environmental and agricultural interests are already at odds over what the deal means in terms of a reduction of livestock. The agreement did not name a specific amount of nitrogen emissions that farmers must make. Now the Danish government has settled on an option in negotiations with the parliament, and it is going over like a lead balloon with Denmark's Nature Conservation Association.
There are three emissions reduction models on the table, with the first one having the highest threshold of nitrogen emissions reductions, 14,100 tonnes per year. Option two reduced the threshold to 13,600 tonnes annually, while the third is even lower at 12,900 tonnes. Environmentalists want the first option, and farmers opt for the third. Now the Danish government has sided with the farmers on option three.
Nature Conservation President Maria Reumert Gjerding spoke with DR to say the government’s position is “completely crazy and unacceptable.”
“I stand 100% for what we agreed in the green tripartite. It contains a compromise where we use a real method and solve a large number of agricultural challenges by reducing the overall agricultural area and converting it back to nature. This results in reduced nitrogen leakage, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, fewer livestock, and more biodiversity. That method is definitely the best.”
While the tripartite agreement avoided specifics on reducing nitrogen leakage into the marine environment, it does spell out other aspects in detail.
Farmers must pay an agricultural carbon tax of 120 Danish kroner (about $24 Cdn) per 120 tonnes of CO2 emissions beginning in 2030. That rises to 300 kroner (about $60 Cdn) in 2035.
250,000 hectares of agricultural land must be converted back to forests and wetlands by 2045. This would act as a barrier between farmland and waterways.
140,000 hectares of so-called low-lying soils, farmland along the coast and near waterways, must be reclaimed by 2030.
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The Danish Biodiversity Council has identified areas in Jutland and on the islands of Fyn and Sjælland where existing nature areas could be made much larger. In the memo published on Thursday, which can be found HERE, the agency says it is possible to establish contiguous nature areas along the west coast and in a central belt in Jutland, along with swaths of Djursland and western and northern Sjælland.
Council Representative and Aarhus University Professor, Signe Normand:
“The large natural areas give biodiversity space and time to grow. This allows for large populations and for the species to survive in the long term.”
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Sweden is pushing back on reports that it is chopping down trees and destroying forests at a tremendous rate. The country has been battling back against a bevy of bad news headlines after a European Union commissioned deforestation study claimed that Sweden has cut down 20% of its forests in just the last two decades.
However, an investigation by Swedish national broadcaster SVT has found the study’s results were wrong. Analyzing satellite data, SVT concluded the algorithm used in the study ran into problems calculating forest coverage in both Sweden and Finland, resulting in a mistaken deforestation assessment.
While logging has increased in Sweden, complicating the current government’s environmental claims, the investigation concluded that the algorithm didn’t compensate for the fact that forests in Sweden are denser, so more trees per hectare.
In order to try to reach its climate goals, the Swedish government has leaned heavily on the country’s forests and the carbon sequestration ability of trees. But the issue of its forests is complicated. The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia have driven up lumber prices, which have resulted in more logging to meet demand and more likely to cash in on the price surge.
Almost 70% of Sweden’s landmass, or 27.9 million hectares, is covered by forests. Approximately 1% of the forests are cut down each year. However, the Swedish Forest Protections Act requires that new seedlings and other natural rejuvenation efforts have to be carried out in areas that have been logged by no later than the third year after the trees were cut down.
🇩🇰
A highly touted hydrogen pipeline that will run from Denmark to Germany has been delayed by at least two years. Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard confirmed that the pipeline that was supposed to be completed by 2028 now won’t be fully built until sometime after 2031. State-owned Energinet blamed extensive environmental and safety studies for the delays. In a press release, Aagaard said the delay is “not satisfactory” and that his ministry will now try to make "Energinet's schedule more secure to limit the delay.”
The pipeline, which is to be built in three phases, was touted as being key to Denmark’s Power-to-X aspirations, with made-in Denmark hydrogen being funnelled to the much larger German market.
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Danish energy giant Ørsted has pulled out of the Green Fuels for Denmark project, which was supposed to help spur the energy transition. The biggest component of the project is to help transition the Danish airline industry to green jet fuel, starting with domestic flights. Ørsted has informed the Ministry of Finance the project is no longer “the right match” for the company.
Back in September, the energy company pressed pause on its participation in the project.
Green Fuels for Denmark was founded in 2020 and includes a number of Danish companies, including Mærsk, SAS, DSV, and Copenhagen Airport.
🦠Outbreaks🦠
🇩🇰
Inoculation centers around Denmark have been up and running administering COVID and influenza vaccinations since the beginning of the month. According to the latest update from the Statens Serum Institute 209,825 vaccinations have been completed as of Wednesday afternoon.
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COVID activity across Denmark, as measured by wastewater surveillance, dipped slightly last week and remains in relatively the same neighbourhood as the week before.
However, according to the Statens Serum Institute there was an uptick in COVID-related hospitalizations.
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Extreme fatigue has always been associated with long-COVID as it was one of the most reported symptoms among people battling debilitating symptoms long after recovering from an infection. However, a new study from Denmark has found that prolonged fatigue is not as common a long-COVID symptom as it once was.
The study consisted of 25,000 people who had suffered a coronavirus infections and 25,000 who have not. Over a long period of time participants had to repeatedly fill out surveys reporting their symptoms and rating how severe they were. Fatigue was reported within normal levels at virtually the same degree among participants who had been infected and the control group.
Statens Serum Institute Department Head and study lead Anders Hviid:
"It is reassuring to see that most people in our study did not experience fatigue and exhaustion to such an extent that one could speak of clinically relevant long-term exhaustion. This applied regardless of whether they were infected or not.”
The study notes that extreme fatigue was definitely a widespread long-COVID symptom early in the pandemic but since the advent of the Omicron variant and vaccines it seems to have diminished.
“Although we see no real increase in long-term exhaustion in infected people in general, we cannot deny that there are individuals who have been hit really hard and suffer from debilitating fatigue due to long-COVID. But our results support that this is fortunately very rare.”
People who did suffered from prolonged fatigue were generally those who had severe infections requiring hospitalization and those who tested positive early in the pandemic prior to the advent of vaccines.
You can find the study in full HERE.
🇸🇪
In Sweden, COVID hospitalizations (314) have eased a little (-9) while the number of severely infected people requiring intensive care (5) has also declined (-5).
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The fall COVID and influenza vaccination campaign begins on Tuesday next week in Sweden. Inoculations are aimed at all seniors over 65, pregnant women, and other vulnerable populations over the age of 18.
State Epidemiologist Magnus Gisslén is warning that another winter COVID infection wave is a certainty, but he said when and to what extent remains unknown. He also said the severity of infections, especially among elderly people and other vulnerable populations, continues to surprise as the COVID pandemic burns through a fourth straight year.
🇺🇦Ukraine/ Russia War🇷🇺
Two can play that game. Russia has long used state-sponsored hacking to steal sensitive information and target its enemies. This week, Ukraine flipped the script and launched what the Kremlin called an “unprecedented” cyberattack on Russian state-controlled media company VGTRK. The actual impact of the attack is unknown, there are reports of extensive disruptions and damages to the company’s internal servers.
VGTRK is one of Russia’s largest media companies.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj spent Thursday and Friday this week doing a quick European tour. He met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, then was in Italy to meet Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome, before swinging over to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
Zelenskyj was originally supposed to take part in the Ukraine Summit meeting in Germany, but it was cancelled after U.S. President Joe Biden postponed his trip due to the hurricane situation along the eastern seaboard.
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Ukraine has a long arm. The country’s military has claimed responsibility for the destruction of a Russian minesweeper based in the Baltic Sea. The ship was in port in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, a long way from the front lines of the war, when it was mysteriously sabotaged. A hole was somehow blasted in the ship’s hull below the waterline, inflicting serious damage.
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Russia is playing a dangerous game with its attacks on Ukrainian ports. Last week, Russian missiles slammed into a section of the port in Odessa, killing one Ukrainian but also five foreign crew members on a civilian ship sailing under the flag of the country of Palau. It was the second time in as many days that Russian missile attacks have hit civilian ships. The day before, a ship sailing under the flag of the Caribbean nation of St. Kitts was also struck by a Russian missile. In that case, there were no injuries.
🇩🇰
It has been a year since the Danish government announced it would reopen Denmark’s last ammunition factory, which closed its doors in 2020. At the time, Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said the goal was to see the factory churning out ammunition within two years, which would be October of next year. However, it doesn’t look like that timeline will be met.
The government has narrowed down the tender to three arms companies, Danammo Aps, Nammo, and Ama Group Aps, who will bid on operating the factory. Those companies will have to submit bids a winner will be chosen, and then the real work of reopening the Krudten factory can begin. While a solid timeline is anyone’s guess, it doesn’t look likely that the factory will begin producing grenades, artillery shells, and other ammunition by next October.
The Krudten ammunition factory opened in 1676, and for 400 years it was Denmark’s only ammunition producer before shutting down in 2020.
🇸🇪
Another sign of European countries preparing for the worst-case scenario, war. The Swedish military is suddenly reclaiming property it abandoned years ago. This means in cases pulling land it owns off the market or arbitrarily ending leases of other properties. In one case, this includes the small island of Söderarm in Stockholm’s sprawling archipelago. A Swedish couple has been leasing the island and running a small hotel and conference centre business on it for the last 18 years. They have been told by the military they must now pack up and leave.
The Swedish Armed Forces, like other European militaries, are speedily rearming and preparing for the possibility of war with Russia.
The Baltic Sea is strategically important, providing the only access to the North Sea and beyond for Russian naval bases in St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Swedish military has been significantly fortifying the strategically important island of Gotland and beefing up its defenses, especially those in the Baltic.
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People in Sweden are being told they should be prepared to manage on their own for at least a week in the event of a national crisis or war. This week, the Swedish government is about to send an updated crisis preparedness brochure to every household in the country. It says that people living in Sweden should ensure they have enough water, food, medicine, cash, and toiletries to last them a week in the event of a crisis. They should also be able to heat their own homes and have emergency communication devices.
Sweden last sent out an emergency preparedness brochure in 2018 but since then the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with nearby Russia have made the issue a lot more top of mind. In the updated brochure there is a lot more emphasis on self reliance.
Charlotte Petri Gornitzka is with the Swedish Emergency Preparedness Agency (MSB).
“What you normally receive support from the municipality you should also be able to expect in crisis and war, but it is still important to say that even these people need to find tools for their own home preparedness.”
The updated crisis preparedness brochure will be in the mail on November 18, but it is already available on the MSB website (in Swedish) HERE.
🇸🇪🇩🇰🇫🇮🇳🇴🇫🇴
Sweden isn’t messing around when it comes to crisis preparedness. This week, a special workshop was held with stakeholders from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and the Faroe Islands, among others, to strengthen Nordic cooperation on food preparedness in the event of a crisis or war. The workshop was organized by the Nordic Council of Ministers. It included discussions on food stockpiles, transportation, and production.
One aspect of the discussions centered around ways to transport foods between the Nordic nations depending on the scope of different crises. In a war with Russia, for example, ports in the Baltic might be compromised. This would mean the Swedish port of Göthenburg would become that much more important. Or how Norwegian ports can play an important role in transporting food to Nordic communities in the north.
Sweden currently maintains grain stockpiles that can supply the country for at least nine months.
🇱🇹/ 🇷🇺
The Baltic States continue to take an absolutely no-nonsense approach to opposing Russia and its invasion of Ukraine. The three Baltic nations, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, are already among the most vocal critics of Russia within the EU. They are also working together to build what they are calling the Baltic Defence Line initiative, which is a series of major fortifications along the borders of Russia and Belarus.
Now Lithuania is also turning its attention to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense says it is fortifying bridges across the Nemunas River, which separates Lithuania from Kaliningrad.
“Fortifications are progressing as planned, with some bridges set to be demolished. Fortifications will be supported by firepower, in case it’s needed, to stop and destroy the enemy.”
The Defense Ministry also adds that it is testing out new iron anti-tank obstacles, which will soon reinforce the dragon’s teeth anti-tank measures already in place on newly fortified bridges.
🇱🇹
Lithuania is also spending big bucks to add more firepower to its air defenses. It has signed a €130 million agreement with Saab for RBS70 NG Mobile Short-Range Air Defence systems. Before the ink even dried on that agreement, Lithuania also placed a €234 million deal with Norway’s Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace for NASAM surface-to-air missile systems.
🇫🇮
In Finland, the University of Tampere has called in the police to investigate what it is calling a suspected breach of sanctions. The university’s head of communications, Anna-Maria Maunu, told Finnish media that they suspect one or more people at the institution violated sanctions as well as the export regulations placed on what are called ‘dual-use technologies, which can be used for civilian or military purposes. She says university officials became suspicious after an investigation into an unspecified incident. Maunu adds the institution also suspects there may have been possible violations of its IT system usage rules in connection with their overall concerns. Other than that, the university is not providing any other information or specifics.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Union has placed a growing number of sanctions on Moscow in an effort to cut off funding, weapons, and raw materials, that would otherwise fuel the Russian war machine.
🇷🇺/ 🇪🇺
Since western nations placed a mountain of sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas exports and Europe banned importing them altogether, the flow of seaborne diesel and gas oil from Russia to Turkey and Brazil has increased significantly. Reuters is reporting that Russia shipped about 1.07 million metric tons of low-sulphur diesel and gasoil to Turkey in September after shipping 1.04 million tons the previous month. While diesel exports to Brazil increased last month to 0.78 million tons versus 0.58 million tons in August.
On top of employing a ghost fleet of aging freighters sailing under flags of convenience with dubious ownership and dodgy insurance coverage, Russia has also been relying on ship-to-ship transfers at sea to dodge sanctions. An estimated 370,000 tonnes of Russian diesel were transferred ship-to-ship off the coast of Italy and Greece in September, and 230,000 tonnes the previous month.
Odds & Ends
🇩🇰🇩🇪
Denmark and Germany have reached an agreement to reduce waiting times at the border for train passengers who have to wait to have their passports checked by police. The agreement specifies that identification checks can begin the moment a train crosses the border. What this means is that, for example, Danish police can board the train at the border and conduct identification checks while the train is travelling to the next station. Previously, trains had to be stopped at the border and wait for police officers to check passengers’ identification before they could continue on.
Denmark has maintained border controls along the German border since 2016 in spite of EU regulations to the contrary. Germany has also recently initiated border controls along its borders with Denmark and other neighbouring European countries.
Originally the border controls were supposed to be temporary, but German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said on Thursday that they will now remain in place until the EU better secures Europe’s external borders.
"We will have to carry out border checks in Germany until we have European solutions to ensure that the external border is better protected.”
🇩🇰
Denmark’s Rejsekort system is about to get a big upgrade. The rejsekort, a tap-in and tap-out travel card for the country’s public train, bus, and metro network, has already transitioned into a smart phone app. The utility announced on Thursday that it will now upgrade all the blue dot check-in and check-out sensors at train and metro stations and on buses so that travellers can also use their credit cards to tap-in and out. The company is hoping to have the work done and the new system up and running by 2026.
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People are not just having a record low number of children, couples in Denmark are also tying the knot at a much older age these days. According to Statistics Denmark, the average age of a groom in weddings last year was 39.8 years old. For the brides, it was 37.4. The statistics agency says the average age of married couples has been steadily increasing since 1973.
🇸🇪
File this under ‘news you didn’t think you would read today.’ Beginning in 2026, first cousins will no longer be allowed to marry in Sweden. That is from a recommendation made by a committee struck by the Swedish government last year to examine the issue (it was happening so often that they had to strike a committee!!!).
Apparently this is not a problem specific to Sweden, as Norway banned marriage between first cousins earlier this year.
🌍
Are we approaching the upper limit of the human lifespan? A study from the University of Illinois has found that life expectancy increases seem to be hitting a plateau. Over the last century the average life expectancy in first world countries has increased by about three decades, or about eight hours for every day that passed. The American study found that only 5.1% of girls born in wealthy countries in 2019 will reach the age of 100, for boys it was 1.8%.
The study does not mention the potential impact of the COVID pandemic, which killed so many people that on its own it adversely impacted global life expectancy.