Finnish Investigators Point to Pipeline Culprit
And Sweden’s may get a very NATO Christmas.
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Finnish investigators say they know how the Balticconnector pipeline and adjacent data cable was damages earlier this month and who did it. With Sweden’s Minister of Defense Pål Jonson saying this week that the damage was the result of “external influence”, it appears that ‘influence’ was a dragging ship’s anchor.
The Finnish National Bureau of Investigation said on Tuesday that drag marks on the ocean floor lead directly to the site of the damaged pipeline and adjacent data cable. Adding to its theory the agency said it found a ship’s anchor lying a few meters away.
NBI senior official Risto Lohi is leading the investigation into pipeline damage:
“The anchor was raised early today and it was possible to see signs that it seems to have been in contact with the gas pipeline.”
Finnish investigators say that the drag marks, the anchor itself, and an analysis of ship movement above the site of the pipeline damage have led them to focus on a Hong Kong-registered cargo ship called the Newnew Polar Bear.
“In addition, we were not able to visually confirm that the ship had another front anchor in place, which helped focus suspicions on this ship.”
Adding to suspicions is a picture of the vessel docked in St. Petersburg, Russia the day after the pipeline was damaged. The picture posted to the Russian Port News website shows the ship’s left side anchor chains on the quayside even though it was moored to the quay.
The NBI says the vessel was outside Finnish jurisdiction once they determined it was suspected to have caused the pipeline damage. Despite contacting the ship several times it says “the ship was not willing to cooperate.”
“The police had no legal basis for coercive measures because it was sailing in Finland's economic zone, where our jurisdiction does not extend in this respect. However, we were ready to act if the ship had entered Finnish territorial waters.”
As of Tuesday night, the Newnew Polar Bear remains in Russian waters.
Risto Lohi says the investigation continues with investigators working to determine “whether the sequence of events is intentional or careless.”
He adds that Finland is now in contact with Chinese authorities to further their investigation but those kinds of diplomatic channels can take weeks.
The Balticconnector natural gas pipeline and adjacent data cable running between Finland and Estonian were damaged in the early morning hours of October 8. The pipeline remains shut down with pipeline operator Gasgrid Finland estimating it will take about five months to do repairs and get the gas flowing again.
The damaged pipeline has cut Finland off the European Union natural gas network making it in essence an energy island this winter. Gasgrid Finland says Finnish LNG supplies are secure and there should be major risks of shortages over the coming winter largely due to the offshore Inkoo LNG terminal.
Fears of another pipeline sabotage after explosions last year tore apart the Nord Stream oil pipelines running from Russia into the EU have pushed oil markets upward along with the ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas.
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NATO could grow to 32 member nations before Christmas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan officially submitted Sweden’s NATO application to the Turkish parliament for ratification this week. A firm date on when an actual vote would be held is not yet known.
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson welcomed the news as “gratifying”.
“Glad to hear that Turkish President Erdoğan has now handed over the ratification documents to the Turkish Parliament. Now it remains for Parliament to deal with the issue. We look forward to becoming a member of NATO.”
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said he anticipates a "quick vote" in the Turkish parliament. Stoltenberg wasted no time in heading to Stockholm for an official visit on Tuesday.
“I am glad we have been able to address Turkey’s legitimate security concerns in a way that enables Sweden’s membership to move forward. I look forward to welcoming Sweden as a full NATO ally in the very near future.”
Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Tobias Billström said that he is circling the end of November as the time when Sweden could officially join the military alliance.
“NATO's Secretary General informed, a few days ago, that he assumes that Sweden will be a member of NATO before the meeting of foreign ministers at the end of November, that is the timetable.”
But not everyone is counting their chickens before they hatch. Paul Levin, who is the Director of the Turkey Institute at Stockholm University, says while the Turkish parliament could vote as early as this week or perhaps next week, the outcome of the vote remains a question mark.
“This is a big step, but not the last. I don't think you should welcome them just yet. Much depends on how much Erdoğa will put pressure on his own parliamentarians and those in his government alliance to vote for [Sweden], in which case this could happen very quickly.”
Turkey’s mercurial President has been a constant wild card during this process repeatedly promising to support Sweden’s NATO application and then pulling outraged u-turns.
29 of NATO’s 31 member nations have already ratified Sweden’s ascension protocols in a lightning-quick fashion. Just Turkey and Hungary continue to drag their feet. To join the alliance Sweden needs a yes from all 31 countries.
But even as Turkey takes a major step forward Hungary is doubling down on its opposition to Sweden’s NATO bid. Hungarian Foreign Affairs Minister Péter Szijjártó said that Turkey’s recent move “doesn't affect Hungary's stance on the issue.”
“Our situation hasn't changed at all. The Hungarian parliament is the sovereign parliament of a sovereign country, so it will make a sovereign decision on this issue.”
Mirroring what has been happening in Turkey, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly said he supports Sweden’s NATO application while at the same time his majority government continues to delay the ratification vote. Hungarian politicians have been accusing Sweden of meddling in the rule of law in Hungary and criticizing the country’s democracy.
Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson maintained an optimistic outlook on Hungary ratifying Sweden’s NATO application.
“I have received assurances from the Hungarian Prime Minister a couple of times before that they will not delay Sweden, and I think Hungary stands by that.”
Notably, while NATO and Sweden’s allies within the alliance have been busy, both publicly and behind the scenes, applying significant pressure Turkey to support Sweden, Hungary’s efforts to delay have been almost universally ignored. That is a pretty good indicator that Hungary has almost zero clout in this matter.
That said, Orbán continues to cozy up to Russia and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Hungarian Prime Minister infuriated European politicians last week when he met with Putin and was pictured shaking his hand. Orbán is the only EU leader to have met with the Russian President since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's Gazprom subsequently announced it would supply both China and Hungary with extra gas this winter on top of existing contractual arrangements.