Europe United and Divided

Denmark unleashes big bucks in a race to rearm.

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European leaders left an emergency meeting about Ukraine in Paris yesterday unified on some issues and extremely divided on others. The meeting was called by French President Emmanuel Macron after the Trump administration essentially blew up America’s relationship with Europe over the weekend.

Coming out of the emergency meeting in Paris, Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen didn’t mince words on the threat posed by Russia.

“Russia is a real threat to the safety and security of the whole of Europe, and thus our freedom, so the most important message from tonight is the need for rearmament. We must rearm in Denmark, we must rearm in Europe, and we must do that to avoid Russia moving the war from Ukraine to other European countries.”

Frederiksen also warned against the Trump administration unilaterally reaching a peace agreement or ceasefire in Ukraine that was based on “wrong premises.”

“Russia might use a ceasefire, if it is on the wrong terms, to mobilize, start over, and attack a new country.”

She also said she cannot imagine a peace deal without Ukraine and Europe at the negotiating table.

“If peace is to be negotiated in Europe, then Europe must be the focal point, but one party must be before others, and that is, of course, Ukraine.”

Frederiksen was representing both the Nordic and Baltic nations at the meeting.

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Polish President Donald Tusk says that Europe and the United States have reached a “new phase” in their transatlantic relationship. Tusk says the group in the Paris meeting is on the same page when it comes to the need for a stronger European defense and spending even more money on rearmament. Coming out of the emergency meeting, he says that participants agreed that closer cooperation between NATO countries is also essential.

Poland is one of the NATO member nations that has been ahead of the curve on reaching the target of spending at least 2% of its GDP on defense. Tusk has previously lamented that his country is an exception in Europe and said that this needs to change.

“We will not be able to effectively help Ukraine if we do not immediately take practical steps regarding our own defence capabilities.”

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EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also attended the meeting, and afterward, she joined the call for a significant increase in European defense spending.

“Today in Paris we reaffirmed that Ukraine deserves peace through strength. Europe carries its full share of the military assistance to Ukraine. At the same time, we need a surge in defence in Europe.”

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However, while there was unity on ramping up defense spending and building up Europe’s military might, there was no unity on the issue of deploying troops to Ukraine. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is pushing for a European-led peacekeeping force to provide security guarantees for Ukraine.

“Right now we have to recognize the new times we are in and not cling hopelessly to the past. It is time we take responsibility for our security, for our continent.”

Both Denmark and Sweden have signalled they are at least open to the idea.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen:

“We are open to discussing many things. However, there is a lot that needs to be clarified before we reach that situation, because we are talking about security for our own men and women, and there are many questions that still need to be answered.”

However, Spain, Poland, and especially Germany are to varying degrees opposed.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters that he is irritated by the idea of deploying a European peacekeeping force to Ukraine.

“I'm even a little irritated by these debates; I want to say that quite openly. This is highly inappropriate, to put it bluntly and honestly. We are not at peace yet, but in the middle of a brutal war waged by Russia that is being pushed forward without consideration."

After the Paris meeting, Scholz said that there are some things that are non-negotiable in order to end the war in Ukraine.

"It is clear to us: the country must be able to continue on its path to the European Union, it must be able to defend its democracy and its sovereignty, and it must be able to maintain its own strong army. We are needed for this, together with our American and international friends and partners, so that this can actually succeed in peacetime. These things are not up for negotiation.”

One of the more head-scratching aspects of the Trump administration’s plan to end the war in Ukraine is to give Europe the cold shoulder and not allow it a seat at the negotiating table while also expecting European troops to be the ones to enforce whatever deal Trump reaches with Putin.

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Denmark is wasting no time in pressing the pedal to the metal when it comes to rearming as fast as possible. The Danish government plans to allocate 50 billion kroner (about $10 billion Cdn or €6.7 billion) in order to drastically accelerate the procurement of high-priority weapons and ammunition. The money is earmarked for military procurement for this year and next. This is on top of increasing overall defense spending to historically high levels. The fund was made a priority after recent events weakened NATO and increased concerns in Denmark about the possibility of war.

Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen spoke to DR:

“Based on the security situation and the serious developments that we are now experiencing, we will have to move much faster in acquiring what we need in order to increase our combat power.”

Another factor in this major acceleration in acquiring weapons and ammunition was a new threat assessment issued by the Danish Defense Intelligence Service (FE). The agency warns that Russia is rearming much faster than anticipated, and it will be more willing to use military force if it perceives NATO as militarily weakened or politically divided. This applies in particular if Russia assesses that the US cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in a war with Russia.

The FE says that if the war in Ukraine stops or freezes, Russia will be able to "increase its military ability to pose a direct threat to NATO.” In that case, the agency assesses that within six months, Russia will have rearmed enough to fight a war with another bordering country within six months. Within two years it will pose “a credible threat” to one or more NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region. In five years it “may be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent” if it believes the U.S. won’t get involved.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen:

“The world is changing. In Denmark, we have to deal with a new reality. Where there is greater uncertainty than we have known since the Cold War. Russia is the biggest threat to Europe. That is why our continued support for Ukraine is absolutely essential. And that is also why we in Denmark must continue to be at the forefront of support for Ukraine. We cannot and must not leave it to others to take care of our security, of Europe's security. As a continent, we must be able to stand in our own right. And we can only do that if we can also take care of our own security. And be able to deter those who want to divide us. Our answer to the troubled world we are experiencing must be as strong a Europe as possible.That is why we must upgrade our defense in Denmark and in Europe. We must invest in our common security. In transatlantic security. A strong Europe in a strong NATO.”

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Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo has called for a non-partisan all-party meeting of parliamentarians on foreign and security policy in the aftermath of the events of the last few days. The meeting will be held today (Tuesday).

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In Sweden, the situation is being taken just as seriously. Foreign Affairs Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard has also called for a meeting of Swedish parliamentarians in Stockholm. On the table will be foreign policy and the Ukraine war.